Pats (12.5) Over
Bills (6) Over
Dolphins (7.5) Under
Jet (4.5) UnderThe Pats are clearly the odds-on fave to win the AFC, they should easily win 12 games. The Bills go 8-8 every year, I don't see this year being any different. The Dolphins cannot be as good next year with Cutler instead of Tannehill, I think they'll struggle early and struggle late. I think the Jets are gonna be bad this year, like really bad, like oh-my-god-what-is-going-on-with-the-Jets kinda bad.
AFC North
Steelers (10.5) Over
Bengals (8.5) Over
Ravens (9) Under
Browns (4.5) UnderThe Steelers are just good year after year and though I think the Bengals and Browns will be better this year, I think getting to 11 wins is within their grasp. The Bengals took a step back last year, I think they get that step back and are in the hunt for a wild card spot down the stretch. The Ravens will either be better than last year or worse...I'm betting worse (no reason, just a feeling). The Browns should take a step forward this year but they could be monumentally better and still not get to 4 wins.
AFC South
Titans (8.5) Over
Texans (8.5) Over
Colts (9) Under
Jags (6.5) Under
I'm on the Titan bandwagon, I like them to be solid from beginning to end. The Texans have a monster defense, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt that the offense will be good enough to scratch out some W's. I'm not a fan of the Colts roster and haven't been for a few years, I think their devolution continues (Andrew Luck is the NFL equivalent of Anthony Davis?). The Jags might step up but I don't have any reason to think so.
AFC West
Raiders (10) Over
Chiefs (9) Over
Chargers (7.5) Under
Broncos (8.5) Under
The Raiders did not win the division last year, that slight step down in schedule gives them the advantage over the Chiefs, I think the Raiders continue to improve and both sides of the ball and shine out this year. I like the Chiefs, they're a steady team and I think they'll lock down a wild card spot early. I think the Chargers finish the season strong and give the LA fans hope for 2018. I think the Broncos take a big step back this year, the defense suffered some losses and the offense didn't gain enough to offset that.
NFC East
Redskins (7.5) Over
Eagles (8) Over
Cowboys (9.5) Under
Giants (9) Under
In short: I think the Cowboys and Giants take a step back, while Eagles and Redskins move up. The Redskins might have a really good defense and the offense could be good enough. Ditto the Eagles. I think the Cowboys overachieved on both sides of the ball last year and I think they regress big time. Similarly for the Giants: I think that D last year was so good that it lifted the offense. I think the D regresses and the offense regresses big time.
NFC North
Packers (10) Over
Vikings (8.5) Over
Lions (8) Under
Bears (5.5) Under
The Packers should dominate this division as usual. The Vikings are this season's most intriguing dark horse to me, that D could be the best in the NFC, the offense could be sneaky good. The Lions overachieved last year, I just don't see them doing that again. The Bears are terrible, man, and will likely be starting a rookie for a long stretch of the season.
NFC South
Panthers (8.5) Over
Saints (8) Over
Falcons (9.5) Under
Bucs (8.5) Under
The Panthers are an every-other-year team and they kinda sucked last year, I expect them to be really good this year. The Saints offense is still really really good, they made some moves to upgrade the D and I think that'll be enough. I think the Falcons step back on both sides of the ball and struggle in a division full of explosive offenses. The Bucs are everybody's favorite dark horse...just like every year; I ain't buying it.
NFC West
Seahawks (10.5) Over
Cards (8) Push
Niners (4.5) Over
Rams (5.5) Under
The Seawhawks are still stacked on both sides and the class of the division (arguably the conference). The Cards are just getting older, they'll play hard, they'll play smart, but they won't recover from injuries well enough to get a wild card spot. I think the Niners improve nicely this season. I think the Rams could be a real grease fire.
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