NBA Playoff Predictions (West)

Warriors over Spurs in 5

I was more impressed with the Spurs than I thought I would be at this point. Obviously they're the Spurs, they got the best coach, they're cohesive like a German soccer team, they got veteran savvy and just enough young dumb punks to keep things lively. Of course, they're great, they're always great. But they don't always win and when KD moved to the Bay Area, that was pretty much it for a while. Even for the Spurs. The West has been won, y'all, everyone else can just take the next coupla years off. And while this Spurs team was good, and while Kawhi is the most underappreciated super badass since...well, Tim Duncan...and while they do have the best coach, I didn't see the Spurs outscoring the Rockets four times in seven games (it only took six). I thought the Rockets would be able to hoist up enough shots to keep the Spurs on the defensive most of the time. That's kinda what Game One looked liked; but looking back, it kinda feels like the Spurs were inviting the Rockets' best punch knowing they could beat it. Even without Kawhi in Game Six, Spurs exploited every mistake the Rockets made (knowing that once the Rockets start making mistakes, they don't tend to stop). And they countered in a most un-Popovich fashion: by rolling the ball out to Lamarcus and letting him play his old school game that we haven't seen much of since he left Portland. Came in handy in Game Six. After Game One, the Rockets didn't really challenge much, not that the games were blowouts but I never felt like they were gonna win, Its always foolish to bet against the Spurs but I'm about to do it again. Against the Warriors, though, the Spurs won't control very much.

The Warriors haven't had to play a team that can punch back the way the Spurs (and Cavs) can. It seemed pretty obvious they were gonna slash right through the Blazers and whoever came out of Clippers/Jazz; I thought they'd play the Rockets in the Conference Final and out-Rocket the Rockets for four straight games. The thing about the Warriors is they still have room to get better. A lot better. And they're already a lot better than everyone else (including the Spurs and Cavs). And true to form, the Blazers and Jazz presented no challenge to the Warriors. The Spurs (and Cavs) will make the Warriors work more than they have so far. But I'm still taking the Warriors in 5. I think they'll win a game on the road (I'm thinking Game Four) and wrap it up back home. As we saw last year: the Warriors can be beaten but it requires a Spanish Armada-esque series of misfortunes to even make it possible. The one knock on this team was that the supporting cast took a hit over the years but I'm not seeing it: Pachulia, Livingston, David West, McGee, and oh yeah, Andre Iguodala make for a pretty good collection of helpers. They've got so much depth up top that they could lose an MVP to injury and still being expected to win it all. This team is a full fledged juggernaut and I expect they will be for at least another five years.

The Warriors offense is rolling, everyone is playing well and contributing, I think the defense hasn't even had to play yet, I think they're gonna be fine. I'll give the Spurs a courtesy game but I think this series--as tantalizing and entertaining as it seems tobe--won't last long.

(* I write this after the end of Game One but I haven't watched the game yet, not sure who wins. I'm betting on the Warriors but *shush* don't spoil it!)