NFL Final Four

NFC

Packers over Giants
NYG had the good defense going but a good D only inspires the bad Eli (makes bad teams good and good teams bad), so their strength becomes their weakness. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is just straight ballin' right now. This game really wasn't close--and OMG there was another fucking Hail Mary!

Seahawks over Lions
I thought Matt Stafford worked his ass off, thought he moved really well in the pocket, but he never had anyone to throw the ball to. The Lions this season had a fortuitous stretch of opponents and a pretty good offense. The Seahawks are looking kinda creaky but they're still plenty good enough to thump the Lions. This game, too, wasn't close.

Packers over Cowboys
I thought the Cowboys should've won this game, they had opportunities (and I'm blaming the philosophical approach, not the rookies, who I thought played pretty well), but they haven't been in the playoffs for a while and though they were the best team in the league, they weren't a complete enough team to stop prime Aaron Rodgers. I'm still not the impressed with the Packers: its just Rodgers by himself, that's tough to keep going in the NFL. Fascinating final 2-3 minutes of this game.

Falcons over Seahawks
The Falcons just straight pounded the Seahawks. The Seahawks started with an impressive TD drive and then did not much for the rest of the game. The Falcons were like a boxer that likes to get punched a little bit to get warmed up. The Falcons let the Seahawks do whatever they wanted on the first drive, gave them a false sense of confidence and then wore them down for the rest of the game.

Packers at Falcons
I was actually more impressed by the Falcons win over the Seahawks than I was by the Packers over the Cowboys. I know, I know: the Cowboys were the best team in the league this season and the Packers are peaking at just the right time, while the Seahawks are fading and jading and ready to fall apart. But the Falcons won by playing the game they've been playing all year long, whereas the Packers are clearly just making it up as they go, which is damn dangerous in the playoffs. I think the Packers could score some points but I am very confident the Falcons will score points--probably a lot of points. The Falcons are sliding into a high level groove, the Packers are rattling along with occasional bursts of brilliance. The fun money is obviously on Aaron Rodgers ballin' out, making 3-4 hero plays down the stretch and the old timey Pack offense rising again....but I ain't seeing it. The Falcon D is good enough to not get destroyed by the Packers and the Falcon O is probably the best in the league, rounding into shape at home at just the right time. I think Falcons run them out of the stadium. The Packers might get loose and run up the score but even then I still just can't see them outscoring the Falcons. I'll take the Falcons to win and cover (-6).

AFC

Texans over Raiders
I thought the Raiders had enough offense to get past the Texans but, man, Connor Cook looked like a flipped over turtle in the sun against that Texan pass rush. Right away you could tell the Raiders had no offense at all and while the Texans didn't look brilliant or anything, they did look like a perfectly ordinary NFL team while the Raiders looked like a beautiful sports car that's only got two tires on it (still beautiful but utterly useless).

Steelers over Dolphins
The Dolphins looked fine for the first few drives but once Matt Moore got hit...I haven't seen anyone drilled in the face like that Traci Lords in her prime (I dunno, too far?)...And they brought him back out! For one play he looked like a homeless man on the expressway, it was cringeworthy to watch. But once they got down to 3rd string, there was just no way they were gonna hang. I've been skeptical of the Steelers all year but they're way better than the Dolphins on a 3rd string QB.

Patriots over Texans
Do you see how this works: Tom Bady got exposed, the Pats played their worst game in years....and they effortlessly scored 30 points. Even on a bad day, they're gonna outscore most everyone they play. The Texan D really is one of the finest in the league--even while being decimated by injuries--but the Texans were never really in that game. Come on. The Pats started slow but they controlled the game comfortably throughout.

Steelers over Chiefs
The Chiefs were the better team, that D played well enough to keep Alex Smith in the game and the Chiefs offense had a few moments of looking pretty good. But not really. The Steelers moved the ball at will, they didn't pile up points but they ate up the clock, played solid D and avoided big mistakes. The Steelers are a veteran outfit that knows what they're doing. But that doesn't mean they're the better team on any given Sunday, it just means they'll play a professional game and expect to be in it at the end. I thought the Chiefs should've/could've won the game.

Steelers at Pats
The Pats on a bad day will still score a ton of points. I think they'll figure out the Steelers eventually and I suspect the Pats D will have some wrinkles for Roethlisberger and company. LaVeon Bell is the key to the Steeler attack now and the reason the Steelers can sit on leads and keep the other QB off the field. Belichik will stop Bell first and take his chances with Roethlisberger going over the top. If the Pats can avoid the big plays, they should easily take the Steelers. The Pats offense glides at this point and I don't think the Steelers will stop them. I'll take the Pats (-6) to win and cover.

I was flummoxed on the 1st round games, I had all four underdogs to at least cover, instead not one of them even put up a good game. The Raiders and Dolphins were cooked by injuries, the Lions and Giants were big play offenses that didn't get lucky. All four games were pretty flat.

The next round was good. Texans put on a pretty good show, the Seahawks started strong and looked kinda scary at first, while the Cowboys and Chiefs really should've played better at home but both still had chances to win late. But the winning teams were the better teams and the semi-finals looks pretty damn good after such a slow start to this season. The first half of the year had a weird shadow over it, all the teams (except Cowboys and Pats) looked mediocre, there was no real buzz about anything this year. But after Thanksgiving, NFL got really good. Its interesting for the Cowboys to be good again, they accounted for huge TV ratings all year. And these last three games are gonna make for good football.

I got Pats-Falcons for big trophy. Two really good offenses, two not bad defenses, shaping up to be a scorefest, haven't had one of those in a while.