2016 US Elections

I'm a student of American history but not a political person. Indeed, I think politics is wildly overrated and we'd all be better off just ignoring it. But this year I was kinda fascinated by the rise of Bernie Sanders and the lingering odor that is Donald Trump. This year's race had some excitement to it...which faded for me about ten minutes into the first debate, which I found to be even more anti-climatic than the third Dark Knight movie. Just wanted to take a second to make one last prediction.

I think Hillary Clinton wins by a sizable margin. I have no interest in picking out each state and nailing down a specific electoral vote count so I'll stay fairly general. Normally the Achilles' heel of the Democrats is that their most enthusiastic supporters within the culture are not the most vigilant when it comes to actually voting. No love for the party, just the after-party. But this time around I think Trump will inspire the liberal hordes to rise up and vote. I think they'll turn out not for Hillary but against Trump (hey, that counts, too). I suspect the race is called well before the west coast polls close and that there's never really any doubt that Hilary wins. Just for trivial value I'll take Evan McMullin to win Utah.

But I think they'll have minimal effect on the down ballot races. I'll take the Republicans to easily hold the House (which I don't think is a bold prediction) and to narrowly hold the Senate (most popular commentators are saying it'll be 50-50 giving the White House the tiebreaker). I think the buzz is that if Hillary wins, Obama will immediately rescind the nomination of Merrick Garland (kinda of a shame, I think I really like him) meaning we won't have a proper 9-person court until shortly before the end of the term. And since this campaign has featured zilch discussion of actual policy, I have no idea who Clinton would nominate, even though that's gonna be the first thing she does.

All I know is I'm ready for this to be over. I hate elections, I find they bring out all the worst in the American people and absolutely none of the best. So by Wednesday at least there is the hope that as a a people we can be good again (though hopefully not great).