NFL Week Four (AFC)

In the pre-season I made team by team projections. Then I second guessed myself. Now we've seen four weeks of football and its time for a proper power ranking. Since my interest is largely self-referential, I'll look at each team through the prism of my previous projections of them. Where was I right? Where was I wrong?

Patriots -- I had them winning 12 games this year...yeah, I was right. Even with that unusual loss at home to Buffalo, they're still 3-1 without Brady or Gronk in a division that looks so so soft. The D is a little unpredictable, but at their best they look pretty damn good. Hard to imagine the Pats not making the playoffs in the AFC, clearly they're still the face to win that division and wouldn't be shocked if they went undefeated for the rest of the year.

Dolphins -- I initially picked the DOlphins to win 7 games, then reconsidered them up to 9. Ehhhh, that D line is a one of the best in the league but nothing else about the team is particularly noteworthy. That said, right around 8 wins doesn't seem inconceivable considering that their D looks better than Buffalo or NYJ and their QB, while underwhelming, doesn't look to be a crippling drawback (as seems possible for their division foes). I think I still like the Dolphins to finished 2nd in the East, though I don't see them competing for a Wild Card.

Bills -- The Bills have some potential upside (interesting weapons on offense that have yet to gel) but debilitating downside, too (flaky pass defense, a coach permanently on the hot seat, an offense that could turn to mush at a moment's notice). The thing about this team is they'll have some great games and they'll have some truly awful games, making them either the most exciting 6-10 team ever or the shakiest 11-5 team ever. I think they're closer to the 6-10 team.

Jets -- I wasn't won over by the emergency signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick, dubious about the signing of Matt Forte, no idea about the coach, no real impression of the D or the skill players on offense. Okay: I really like that D line and the receiving corps has good variation and depth. That's it. If Fitzpatrick gets it together, the Jets can win some games but unless he does (and I doubt he will) the Jets are the classic 5-11 kinda squad.

Bengals -- I watched the Bengals a lot last year and I was impressed. But rather than keeping that vibe going, it increasingly looks like they had their chance last year and missed it. The offense isn't as crisp as last year, the D isn't as strong. They don't suck but they are decidedly 2nd tier in the AFC rather than being the pick to go to the Super Bowl (as they were for me in pre-season). I still think they're a playoff team but I don't think they're as consistently good as the Steelers. I expect them to compete with the AFC West leftovers for a playoff spot and I think they'll take one. But they'll ride into the post-season as a Wild Card rather than a division winner. Bengals are a solid 10-6 team.

Steelers -- The D is still a work in progress and the offense is kinda one-dimensional. However, that one dimension is maybe the best in the league. Ben over the top to those receivers followed by doses of underneath to RBs in the flat is pretty tough to stop. There are pass rushes that can interrupt that and there are offenses that could maybe match the attack, but week in/week out the Steelers are gonna be one of the better teams in the league. I'll take them to go 12-4.

Ravens -- I had the Ravens winning 3 games. They've already won 3 games (squeakers over the Bills, Browns and Jags), seems like they're gonna be awesome, right? Ehhh, I'm not sold. Flacco is firmly on the high side of mediocre: better than middle of the road but not much. The D doesn't suck but doesn't make plays, the O line is suspect and the skill players are not ideal. Okay, this team is already better than I thought they'd be and they'll probably win a few more squeakers (they'll win the types of games the Chargers are losing) but I don't see them winning much more than that. Ravens 6-10.

Browns -- I had the Browns winning 2 games because...well...even the crappiest teams usually win 2 games. The Browns are probably the crappiest team. So I'll stick with 2-14 for the Browns.

Texans -- I had the Texans winning 9 games and their division. Strangely enough even though they've lost JJ Watt for the year and Brock Osweiler is not terribly impressive at QB, even though the Texans are clearly not as good as I thought they could be, I still think they win 9 games and the division. That division stinks and the Texans feel like the least stinky, so I'm sticking with what I thought before.

Jags -- The Jags were one of everyone's favorite dark horse team in pre-season and I kinda got swept up in that. The Jags have sucked for a while now and though they look better than they have in a while, they still don't seem dangerous at all. I thought they'd win 8 games and maybe be a spoiler team and while they're not that good, they look like the kinda team that could sneak some W's late in the season. I'll take them to win 7 games.

Colts -- Andrew Luck is truly one of the best QBs in the league but, my god, the rest of the team is awful. Frank Gore is still surprisingly effective but the O line is abysmal, the receivers are disappointing, the special teams has no magic and the D is one of the worst in the league. And, just to pile on, I think their coach is pretty terrible. But they still have Luck so I'll give them 5 wins.

Titans -- The Titans are plucky, not good but they'll work hard and sneak some wins that they shouldn't get. But they'll lose more than they win and occasionally just look awful. They look like a classic 6-10 team.

Raiders -- I thought the Raiders would bust out, taking steps forward on both sides of the ball. Well, they have moments of bust out but just as often play the youngsters they are. I think they're gonna be pretty good but the lack of veteran presence is gonna fail them a few times this year, while youthful exuberance will only help them once or twice. I still like the Raiders to take a Wild Card and win 10 games.

Chiefs -- I thought the Chiefs would build on last year's improvement and firmly take a Wild Card spot. But so far they don't look quite as good as last year, they can beat bad teams but I'm not sure they can hang with good ones. I think they go 9-6 and miss the playoffs.

Broncos -- I thought the Broncos would miss Jackson and Trevathan on D and struggle at the QB spot on offense and take a serious step back. Nope. That D is every bit as fierce as last year (Von Miller looks ready to jump from Super Bowl MVP to League MVP). And I've been impressed with both of their young QBs, Simien and Lynch both look capable of being goo enough. The running game is solid, the special teams are solid, the overall vibe is exactly where it ought to be. The Broncos are much better than I would've thought. I like them to win the west and go 12-4.

I've shuffled the rankings but I'm still in on 5 (Pats, Bengals, Steelers, Texans, Raiders) of my 6 playoff projections with the Broncos supplanting the Chiefs. So to re-prosecute the playoff projections: Steelers over Raiders, Bengals over Texans; Pats over Bengals, Steelers over Broncos; Steelers over Pats for the AFC final.