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I love football, always have. But I don't have nearly the depth of knowledge in football that I do in basketball or baseball and I have no idea how to predict a future season. By the end of the year I'll have interesting observations to make but in summer time, this is all from the gut stuff. I've been listening to various 'experts' during their previews and all I can think is, 'Dude, it's all about injuries. How da F do you know who's gonna get hurt?'

I looked over this year's NFL schedule and picked a winner for each game. I didn't consider spreads although I did try to throw in an occasional situational upset. Of course, this does not (cannot!) take into account who won't be playing week to week. This exercise tends to ignore the middle: I usually end up with too many great teams and too many awful teams. I do have 11 double digit winning teams and only 6 teams with 4 or fewer wins. Yeah, nothing about that seems accurate. But this is just a start.  This is what I came up with:

(15 wins)
Packers
(13 wins)
Bengals, Raiders, Cards
(12 wins)
Pats, Chiefs, Panthers
(11 wins)
Texans, Bucs, Seahawks
(10 wins)
Steelers
(9 wins)
Colts, Cowboys, Giants
(8 wins)
Broncos, Rams
(7 wins)
Bills, Dolphins, Bears, Lions, Falcons
(6 wins)
Titans, Chargers, Eagles, Redskins
(5 wins)
Niners
(4 wins)
Jets, Jags
(3 wins)
Browns, Ravens, Saints
(0 wins)
Vikings

Just based on this, who seems overrated and who seems underrated?

Okay, start at the bottom: very unlikely the Vikings win ZERO games. They won their division last year and still feature a solid defensive line and one of the great running backs of all time. I did this game-picking exercise before they traded for Sam Bradford, but frankly I still wildly underrated before they got an NFL QB (and I should say, I still kinda like Bradford, needs a lot of help from his O line but if they can keep him upright, he should be really good for them). So why did I have them so low? I dunno, they just never seemed like the better team in any single match. Looking back at it, more likely the Vikings win 8 or 9 games and compete for a wild card (and that I've probably overrated the Lions and Bears). I'll say Vikings go 8-8.

The Ravens were decimated by injuries last year and can't really be as bad as they were...but I still don't care for their roster and there's a decent chance they get decimated by injuries again (it is football, after all). So I'll stand by the 3-13 record for the Ravens.

Yeah, I think the Browns could be truly awful this year. In fact, I'm surprised I gave them 3 wins. The good teams are entirely unpredictable but the bad teams announce themselves ahead of time. The Browns are relying on the resurgence of RG3 and...uh....does not bode well for them, methinks. I assume they're gearing up for the draft by now. I'll go 2-14 for the Browns.

The Saints also feel like an easy call as a bad team. They're getting older and more expensive and they're in a division with the defending conference champs (Panthers), an up and coming tough D squad (Bucs) and a slightly younger clone with a hungry new coach (Falcons). None of that is promising for the Saints. I'll stick with 3-13 for the Saints.

The Jets were not good last year and don't seem any better to me. 4-12 sounds about right for the Jets.

The Jags are one that I'm wrong about. The Jags have been monumentally bad for the last few years but they do seem like they're moving in the right direction. I think their division is soft (I think I've overrated the Texans and Colts) and if that D can stand up, I think the Jags could be a real surprise in the AFC. I think they can stay in the mix for that division right up through December. I'll go 9-7 on the Jags.

The Niners are another one I think I'm wrong about. It was only 3 years ago that the Niners were talented, young and deep at every position, looked like they were going to dominate the NFC West for years to come. Man, all of that is loooooooonnnngggg gone! How on earth do they win 5 games? No, no, no, I am not buying Blaine Gabbert at QB, not buying Chip Kelly in his 1st year, not buying their D line or running game. I'll say 3-13 for the Niners.

The Titans should be fun to watch but I'm not sure they win too many games this year. Indeed, I think 6 wins is probably an overshot. I'll go 5-11 for the Titans.

Last year the Chargers (like the Ravens) were a solid veteran team that couldn't withstand all the injuries. But, man, Phillip Rivers is still really good, he keeps them in games they have no business competing in, he truly is Dan Fouts 2.0. That said, I still think the team is in disarray, they'll be one of those teams that wins game they oughta lose and lose games they oughta win. If you're into gambling, stay away from the Chargers! I'll stick with 6-10 because...I dunno....sounds about right.

I gave the Eagles 6 wins but looking back on it, I don't know why. I think this first post-Chip year could be disastrous: no running game, rookie QB, so-so defense. I'll go 3-13 for the Eagles.

I don't know about the Redskins. Kinda depends on Tony Romo really: if he's healthy the Cowboys could be really really good, if not the Redskins could still be in the hunt by the end of the year. I'll go 8-8 for the Redskins though it could be much higher or much lower.

As I said above, since I wildly downgraded the Vikings in my initial look, it seems like the Bears and Lions are both overrated in my predictions. I think the Lions could get an eye-opening year out of Matt Stafford (make or break season for him) but I don't like the defense. The Bears have been up and down over the years, I suspect they'll be down this year. I'll say 5-11 for the Lions, 6-10 for the Bears.

Brady and Belichick have so dominated the AFC East for as long as anyone can remember that the Bills and Dolphins (and NYJ, too) are in a permanent spin cycle. In most years the Bills have widest variance: if it all comes together they could be really good, but unless it all comes together they could be really bad. But this year I think that team is the Dolphins: front 7 of that defense looks mighty and if Tannehill can finally become something, the Dolphins could surprise people. While the Bills D has been steadily declining under Rex Ryan and the offense is still based on longshots. I'll got 5-11 for the Bills and 9-7 for the Dolphins.

The Falcons have been not-as-good-as-they-ought-to-be for like a decade now. With the Panthers looking solid and the Bucs on the rise, it doesn't feel like the Falcons break out of their mediocrity this year. I think 7-9 sounds about right for the Falcons.

The Broncos are the defending Super Bowl champs. They won last year with a fierce pass rush and the veteran savvy of Peyton Manning. The defense has taken a step back and while the QB situation doesn't seem like a huge step back, it doesn't feel like a huge step forward either. I just don't see how they could possibly be as good this year. I think there are some serious comers in that division, I'll stick with 8-8 for the Broncos.

The Rams will go 8-8. Yeah, rookie QB, new stadium, no real upgrade on the offense, but the pass rush is so good and Jeff Fisher is the ultimate 8-8 coach. Yeah, I'll stick with it.

The Colts have Andrew Luck, one of the bestest QBs in the business....and nothing else. I think they've been living off a sub-par division for years and I don't think that's gonna work for them this year. Not sure why I gave them 9 wins. I'll go 7-9 for the Colts.

The Giants are led by Eli Manning, a QB who has a knack for making bad teams good and good teams bad. By giving them 9 wins, I think I'm suggesting they're a bad team that will be elevated by Eli. I dunno...I think I'll stick with that. 9-7 for the Giants.

The Cowboys season is all about Tony Romo. The running game should be dominant, the defense should be better than ya think, if they can survive til Romo comes back, I think the Cowboys could run away with the division in December. I'll stick with 9-7 (and a home playoff game) for the Cowboys.

The Steelers for years have been a team that just chugs along, there's not always great but they're never bad and if some other team flubs it late, the Steelers are usually there to snatch an extra win or two. That said, it feels like there's been a steady erosion over the last few years. But I think the Ravens and Browns are still gonna be terrible, which can only benefit the Steelers. I'll back off a bit and say 9-7 for the Steelers.

I think I overrated the Texans. 11 wins seems kinda high for a team with a banged up defense and a brand new (largely untested) QB. And while their division isn't great, I think the Titans and Jags are on the rise and the Colts still have one of the best QBs in the league. I'll stick by the Texans winning the division but I'll knock them back to 9-7.

Yeah....the Bucs....every year somebody overrates the Bucs. I'll be that guy. I think the D is killer, I think Winston has a bust out season and the Bucs take advantage of minimal expectations. Bucs go 11-5.

It seems like the Seahawks should be on the way down but I don't think so. Every year that D is stout, the QB is top notch and they just find a way to win. I'll stick with the Seahawks going 11-5.

The Pats will be without Tom Brady for the first 4 games of the season. I say they 3-1 without him, 9-3 with him. Yeah, that sounds about right. Pats go 12-4.

I thought the Chiefs were playing really good football by the end last year. Alex Smith is not the most exciting QB but when you're going for continuity, he's the man. I like the Chiefs to build on last year and usurp the Broncos. That said, 13 wins sounds like a lot, don't it? I'll say the Chiefs go 11-5, still comfortable make the playoffs.

The Panthers rolled through the NFL last year (til the Super Bowl, of course) and while it seems inconceivable they can be that good again, they do look good enough to win 12 games and take their division. Panthers go 12-4.

I thought the Bengals were the best team in the AFC last year, still not sure how they lost to the Steelers in the playoffs but I thought they would've beaten the Broncos and the Pats and I still think that. I like the Bengals to hold it all together and go 13-3.

The Raiders are on the right track, one of those teams that should be exciting to watch even if they're losing. If it all comes together, they might just dominate for stretches of the season. 13 wins seems ludicrous...yeah, it does...but I'll stick with it.

The Cards flailed badly in the playoffs last year but, man, that D is so strong and I think Carson Palmer has one more good year left in him (though I don't see many more than that). I think the Seahawks will be good and the Rams are never an easy out, but I like the Cards to stay strong enough to go 12-4.

No way the Packers win 15 games, right? Right. But I think their division is soft so I'll still take them to go 13-3.

Okay, I made a few changes (which probably don't add up but who cares?) but my playoff picks are all still the same. So here's my playoff rundown:

AFC
Chiefs over Texans; Pats over Steelers
Bengals over Chiefs; Pats over Raiders
Bengals over Pats

NFC
Seahawks over Panthers; Bucs over Cowboys
Packers over Bucs; Seahawks over Cards
Packers over Seahawks

I'll take the Packers over the Bengals in the Super Bowl. All right, future has been predicted, no need for newspapers ever again.

But for real, here's some serious punditry for you: football is all about injuries. Basically all I'm saying above is if the Packers and Bengals can overcome the injuries they will surely have, then I think they have the best chances to make it to the Super Bowl. I could be wrong but ain't nobody else gonna be right either because the injuries are entirely unknowable. All I know is: it's good to have football back.