San Antonio Spurs (so far)

Now that Kevin Durant has gone to the Warriors, word is Tim Duncan is mulling retirement. I've thought for the last 4-5 years, at the end of each season, Duncan looks at the Spurs roster and thinks, can I win a championship with these guys? If the answer is yes, Duncan'll just keep coming back. And I think at the end of this past season he looked at the team and thought yes, I'll give this squad one more year and then move on. But now that GSW has upgraded, Duncan might just say fuck it, I'm out. Drink margaritas for a coupla years, then get a bland job w/ ESPN. I thought he had one more year in him (and only one) but maybe not.

I thought the problem for the Spurs last year (and I hate to say this): David West. With the addition of Aldridge, the Spurs radically altered the offensive philosophy of swinging the ball around as fast as possible to find the most efficient shot. Aldridge slows that down a lot, opening Kawhi on the other side to be a ball dominant forward. Duncan is nudged into a strictly low post rebounding role, Tony Parker into a free floating scorer in service of Lamarcus and Kawhi. That's still a pretty good team but that's also a lot of change to absorb after a decade or more of steady operation. Rather than aiding that transition, David West actually dislodged Duncan even further, dislodging Parker even further, dislodging Diaw and Manu too, creating cracks that got exposed against a faster, tenacious OKC team. In the regular season the 15-16 Spurs were like the 14-15 Hawks: good enough talent, got their game down, you run into them on a Tuesday night or after a back to back or something and these guys are gonna have your lunch money and be back on the road before you know it. But over a 7 game series, that doesn't hold up. The Spurs got one solid punch in the face of OKC (Game One) before OKC blew up Akira-style on 'em.

The Spurs brought in Pau Gasol (2yrs/$30m) and said goodbye to David West (hopefully he monkeys with the working of Golden State the way he did in San Anton). Manu will be back, Duncan (should) be back, even Boban Marjanovic should be back. Add in exciting rookie PG Dejauntas Murray and the Spurs will still have a solid core, decent bench and years of success on their side.

I still have faith in the Spurs and the Popovich and even Pau Gasol (though if they have to lose Diaw to get him, he's just a replacement rather than an upgrade). I do not expect them to beat the Warriors, but they should still be better than Rockets, Clippers, Mavs, Jazz, Pelicans, Grizzlies, Wolves, etc., and OKC's definitely back in range. I expect the new style Spurs to still be really good next year, certainly close enough to the top to stay prepared for a trip to the conference finals. The Spurs have a good shot at finishing 2nd in the West again and being a tough out in the playoffs for whoever they face. (Last year's pre-season prediction was Spurs over Warriors, this year I'll reverse it but stick with the same two teams)