NBA Preview (West)

Warriors (61 wins). I'm not trying be that guy but the Warriors did enjoy a great deal of luck last year. They deserved to win, they were just about perfect last season, and while they're still one of the tippity-toppity best teams in the league, it is unrealistic to think they'll breeze their way to back to back championships. I still have them finishing 1st in the West but I just can't see them being as good as last year. Coach Kerr is unlikely to start the season on the bench, all you need to show that their stellar health last season (even their one injury was providential!) cannot be repeated. How they respond to a normal amount of injuries will determine just how dominant they can be.

Rockets (59). I've been skeptical of the James Harden model (one unbelievably efficient ball dominant player that does everything) but perhaps my skepticism is just for the playoffs. In the regular season I think that can be successful, especially when the Rockets have upgraded the supporting cast with very little effort. This is a really solid team all around. Look for Motiejunas, Jones, Capela and McDaniels to each take a step forward, look for the veterans to be all veteran-y (Lawson, Howard, Ariza, Terry, Brewer, Beverley), look for their incoming rooks (Dekker, Harrel) to get their moments to shine. That's pretty good stuff, man. I think they'll win a lot of games this year and Harden will be a top 3 MVP candidate.

Thunder (57). I think KD wins the MVP, I think Westbrook plays even angrier than usual, I think Ibaka's role might net him a 6th Man Award, I think Coach Donovan juggles the supporting cast well enough for this machine to hum along. I think they are painfully aware of what they've left on the table the last coupla years and that this may be the last hurrah and I think they bring it from the gitty and bury people all year long. I fear, though, they may be worn out come playoff time.

Spurs (55). I was a bit skeptical of the addition of Lamarcus Aldridge: while he's definitely a legit badass scorer, I wasn't convinced that his game would blend seamlessly with the Spur style. But, who am I kidding? He's a badass player and this is a team that knows how to make the most of badass players. They may fumble for a little while but by the all-star break this team will be rounding into seriously dangerous form. Indeed, bringing in Aldridge and West should ease the load on Tony Parker (I think he'll be better this year than he's been in a while) and Manu (he looked good in pre-season). I have them coming into the playoffs in 4th place, just enough below the radar to feel like the underdog.

Clippers (54). Chris Paul is a great (regular season) PG, Blake Griffin has really come into his own recently as the dominant offensive force we all knew he was going to be, Deandre Jordan should've won DPOY last year (and I think he will this year), Paul Pierce still has plenty of run left in him, JJ Reddick is one of the sharpest shooters in the league, Lance Stephenson desperately needs success to restore his image, Josh Smith too, Jamal Crawford is still one of the finest bench players in the league (and probably irked about the trade rumors that swirled around him all summer), Austin Rivers wants to show that he's more than just his father's son, even Pablo Prigioni is a sneaky good control freak off the bench. Man, gonna be a serious disappointment when they get run by the Spurs in the 1st round (yeah, Clippers gonna Clip).

Grizzlies (51). I kinda love the Grizzlies, I love the players, love the ethic, and they're still just one trade away from being a seriously dangerous team even in the West. But I'm not seeing the improvement, I'm only seeing the slow deterioration. (How do they get Melo? Oh yeah: they don't) I'm all in on the Gasol-Zeebo-Conley-Allen quartet but I'm still not in on any of the rest of that roster. Four really good players just won't be good enough to win a playoff series in the West. Indeed, they're a trade or two away from getting usurped by the Pelicans.

Pelicans (48). I adore Anthony Davis and I appreciate that the Pelican brass has desperately tried to wheel and deal him some teammates right now. But their efforts have left the cupboard pretty bare. That said, AD is good enough to bring the team along even if the team itself doesn't really want to. Evans is probably out til New Year's and Ajinca, Asik and Pondexter will probably also be in and out of the lineup early on. That's putting a lot of pressure on the oft-injured Holliday, the overrated Gordon and a bench that leaves a lot to be desired. Oh well, Davis is good enough to elevate this bunch at least more than their near rivals can rise. I like the Pelicans to get up to 7th this year (one more year for the salary cap to go up and for Eric Gordon's ruinous contract to finally disappear; one more year til they finally get Davis the help he needs/deserves).

Suns (41). Okay, I admit it: I'm a sucker for the Suns. I (still) think Eric Bledsoe is the next great NBA badass, I think Branden Knight is one of the most underappreciated PG's in the league, I think Devin Booker has a decent shot at ROY, I think Alex Len and TJ Warren are ready to blossom, I think this team is gonna score, score, score and while I didn't really get the Tyson Chandler signing, I think he's a good player and he'll give them a hint of defensive backbone they otherwise wouldn't have had. I don't trust the Suns upper management, the culture seems a little putrid there, so a mid-season upgrade is probably not coming. But I like the squad they've got on the court, at least enough to get past the Jazz for the right to be the sacrificial lamb to the Warriors.

Jazz (40). High on my League Pass rankings, love watching the young talent and this team is well stocked in such. I like the coach, I like the culture, I like their direction, I like the youth (except for Trey Burke), I think they'll be better than last year. But I think they're still another year away from getting some playoff run. (Keep an eye on Trey Lyles, a sneaky ROY pick, I think that kid can really play and as he gets used to the pro game, he could be really really good)

Kings (38). A lotta talent, a lotta mess. I think Cousins is a great (GREAT) player, Gay is a shockingly efficient player, Rondo is a no-nonsense leader and the supporting cast improved (a little) over the summer. But I still don't think they'll be very good. They'll have moments, they'll have good streaks (14 W's in 19 games) and bad streaks (2 W's in the next 19 games), they'll be competitive into the 4th quarter, they'll be a tough out, they'll sting the sleeping teams but they won't beat the teams that bring their best game. They'll be okay, they won't be laughably bad but they won't make the playoffs.

Mavs (33). I think the Mavs are really in a bad way right now, I'm only taking them to win this many games because of inertia: they're used to winning a lot of games and so they'll keep winning like a chicken with its head cut off. Their 1st round pick next year belongs to the Celtics; its top 7 protected, so they are incentivized to blow it up but Coach Carlisle ain't a tank commander (though he does have a lucrative extension awaiting him), Dirk gets nothing out of losing and even though Cuban understands the business of the game, he's too entrenched with those guys to force them to walk the plank. So I think the Mavs will be pretty terrible but will still pull out more games in the 4th quarter than you think they oughta.

Blazers (31). I was dubious of the early summer projections of Aldridge to the Spurs, I kept thinking he'd return to the Blazers. In that light, I thought their off-season was actually pretty good: Davis/Plumlee replace Lopez, Henderson replaces Afflalo, Aminu replaces Batum, Harkless replaces Matthews. I know, I know, its not great but if you keep Aldridge, its not such a drop off and the change may have been invigorating. But they didn't keep Aldridge, so the moves just look desperate and weak. But if Lillard has a big year (very possible) then the Blazers shouldn't be awful. The salad days have passed but the 'rebuilding' period ahead doesn't look too dire (and if the Mavs and Kings flail, the Blazers might even be fighting for the 8th spot).

Lakers (27). The Lakers (like the Knicks) almost have to be much better than last year. While I wasn't a huge fan of their off-season moves, this year's roster is clearly better than last year's. Russell and Randle are the future (or are they Melo bait?), all else is just upgraded filler. (Personally, I think Kobe will be playing in 2016-17 and probably not for the Lakers, just wanted to get that on the record)

Wolves (23). Sorry to hear about the passing of Flip Saunders, shame to see he won't see the flowering of the seeds he's planted. This team is still a year or two (throw in another good lottery pick) from being good, but the core of young talent is intriguing. Gonna be a great League Pass team all year long but I don't see them gutting out too many wins in the West.

Nuggets (17). All about Mudiay and whatever they can get for Faried. Otherwise, not much to see here. Easily the worst team in the West.