NBA Draft

I did some draft previews for the first 14 picks already, went something like this: 1) Okafor 2) Towns 3) Russell 4) Porzingas 5) Winslow 6) Mudiay 7) Hezonja 8) Cauley-Stein 9) Lyles 10) Turner 11) Oubre 12) Kaminsky 13) Johnson 14) Payne). Now I'm back to revisit those picks to see if I still agree with myself.

Personally I think Okafor is more ready to go than Towns but the intelligentsia doesn't agree with me and it seems like Towns to the Wolves is what's gonna happen. I won't fight it, I think he's gonna be a nice scorer down low and the Wolves youth movement is all the more intriguing next year.

Its long seemed that (like last year) the top two picks are set in stone even if the order is up in the air, thus the Lakers at #2 would take whichever of Towns or Okafor is still available. But lately the Lakers have been rumbling about Russell....eh, I think that's smoke (hey, now is the time for teams to get all Jedi on each other). I think Okafor will be there and the Lakers will take him.

The Sixers....ah, the Sixers. They really could use a PG and the top graded PG out there should still be available at #3. But don't forget: the Sixer brass is all about getting the best value, not the best player. The flirtation with Porzingas heated up last week which means the Sixers could be targeting him instead (as trade bait more than anything) and spending their five 2nd rd picks on a series of PGs: Hanlon, Young, Boatright and the Harrison twins (of course they may do that even if they pick Russell). The Sixers are in serious danger here of outsmarting themselves: look, even if you've got a valuable player, you've got to give him an environment of basketball to maximize his skills and therefore his value. If the Sixers roll into next year with three exciting young C's and no one to get them the ball, the value will drain out of those players and the Sixer experiment will be a disaster. For now I'm going to assume that reason will prevail and the Sixers take Russell at #3 (though wouldn't be shocked to see them trade him away almost instantly).

The Knicks want to trade #4, no doubt about it. They've played their part in pumping (and dumping?) Porzingas' stock in hopes of faking out the Sixers and stealing Russel at #4; if that works out, I think the Knicks would be pleased with that pick. But I suspect the Sixers won't fall for that and Russell won't be available to the Knicks. They'd love to trade back and scoop up Cauley-Stein but Porzingas has the best trade value, so the Knicks will take him at #4.

Personally I think Winslow has the highest upside in the entire draft and if the Magic are unable to hold on to Tobias Harris, Winslow is a perfect fit for them. The Magic also seem to be on the Porzingas bandwagon but unless they want to trade up a spot to snag him (hey, they paid the ransom on Payton last year), I think the Magic take Winslow (with or without Harris).

The Kings need a PG. On my board, Mudiay is still there. There's been talk of trading the #6 pick but for the Kings that wouldn't serve much purpose (its not like they're pushing for the playoffs next year). Take Mudiay, build around the Mudiay-Cousins combo (and start researching next year's lottery pick).

The Nuggets could be wheeling and dealing at #7, so rather than seeing who fits their roster, probably better to look at this as a value pick (a la the Sixers) rather than a roster-stuffer. Snagging #2 from the Lakers and #4 from the Knicks (the two most impatient teams in the league) probably won't be available to them, but snagging multiple picks from the Celtics (#16, #28, the Mavs 1st rounder next year, plus some combo of Young, Sullinger and a raft of 2nd rounders?) could be a possibility....so who do the Celtics want with the #7 pick? The Celtics could use a shotblocking C, Cauley-Stein and Turner would both be there. The Nuggets may not be picking for the Celtics but surely they're not picking for themselves either. #7 depends on whether Cauley-Stein, Lyles or Hezonja can generate the most buzz over the next coupla days. I'll go with Lyles at #7.

The Pistons are taking their annual #8 pick. Not sure how many drafts Stan Van has overseen in his time but I don't think this is trade bait, they're looking to add to the roster. I suspect if Hezonja is still there they'll take him (if not, I'd look for them to take Johnson).

The Hornets are a mess, they need everything. Whoever gets chosen here will get a chance to play with little expectations in the first year, could be a kush gig for a rookie...or his career will be over before it begins, one or the other. Is GM Jordan in love with Payne? I think it would be an awkward fit with Kemba (and he's already been paid), so I think they'll go with Cauley-Stein and hope WCS and MKG form the backbone of a hard hitting defense. (If WCS is gone, I think they'll take Lyles)

The Heat are lucky to have snagged the #10 pick, so this draft is house money for them. My previous thought was that Turner was the best pick for the next few years of their roster construction: with Andersen and Haslem hitting the road next summer, Turner and Whiteside keep them solid and affordable in the paint for the next few years. Since the Heat fancy themselves a deep playoff team next year, do they feel like they need output right away at this pick or can they afford to develop someone slow? If the former they could reach for Booker here, if the latter I still say Turner is the better pick...I say Booker goes #10 (and look for the Heat to snag a Harrison twin at #40). (I'm not so high on Booker, he was extremely streaky at Kentucky, going off every now and again and then disappearing for weeks at a time; I'd say he's two years away from being useful but NBA teams love to get excited about their rookies; while all that may also be true of Turner, I think his long term value for the Heat is actually better)

I initially had the Pacers taking Oubre at #11 but Oubre has fallen out of favor recently. The Pacers could go for size with Turner or Kaminsky but I reckon they'd be better off with Payne. The Pacers still have size down low, the D is still solid, what they need are playmakers. Payne is a speedy waterbug, I think he helps them out right away. (Could depend on whether West and Hibbert stick around for another year, I'm betting they both do)

Telling you, Jazz: Kaminsky is the guy for you at #12. So obvious to my eye that I'm not even gonna comment on it.

I still have Johnson available at #13 making him a no-brainer pick for the Suns. They could take a flyer on the falling Oubre, they may go for more size with Turner, they could reach for Dekker, But I say Johnson at #13.

OKC was the first team to be enchanted by Payne but now I think the buzz has moved on and I don't think he'll be available to them there. If they want a PG Jones and Grant are still there, some draft previews have them going with Dekker but I think that would be a mistake (dude, how lame is Dekker gonna look coming off the bench to spell Durant?), Turner is still available if they're looking for size down low, if they're in the mood for a reach I suggest they go for Portis. I've talked myself out of all those options...I'll say Jones goes #14.

To recap: Towns, Okafor, Russell, Porzingas, Winslow, Mudiay, Lyles, Hezonja, Cauley-Stein, Booker, Payne, Kaminsky, Johnson, Jones. That's what I think today....but the draft is four whole days away, plenty of time to change all of that.