Indiana had only a single 2nd round pick which they flipped to the Knicks for everyone's favorite Xmas present: cash considerations. After back-to-back Conference Finals appearances, the Pacers know who they are: strong D, good enough offense. With their roster pretty well tied up, the only move left for this off-season was re-signing Lance Stephenson.
Whoops! Didn't get that done so they picked up Rodney Stuckey (1yr/$1.2m), who I think is a reasonable replacement for Stephenson; Lance is a great perimeter defender but hardly an all-world scorer which is befitting the Pacer style. Stuckey, to my mind, is actually something of an upgrade in the sense that he is a more reliable scorer than Lance. They also added CJ Miles for 4yrs/$14.1m, which seems a bit much for a backup PG but he fits their style and is a nice tonic for George Hill. They also re-signed Lavoy Allen, brought in Damjan Rudez and Shayne Whittington (no idea who that is). The Pacers didn't have a lot of flexibility, didn't have a lot of moves to make, so this is a pretty predictable outcome for their off-season: you hope Stuckey and Miles can make up for the loss of Stephenson and anything they get out of Rudez is a bonus. Good enough to win the East? No, but shouldn't be a dropoff from the last coupla years and with the East in flux, maybe that Pacer D comes in big in the playoffs.
And then...the roof caved in. Paul George pulls a Theismann in the Team USA scrimmage and appears to be out for the year (though it seems to me a broken leg shouldn't really be more than 6 months, right? I know it looked worse at first but in the end a broken bone is pretty much the easiest injury a high level athlete could endure, so really out for a year?). Can the Pacers return to the Eastern Conference finals now? Nooooo, no, no, no. Not gonna happen. Nope. What are their options? They could exercise an injured player exception paying roughly half of George's contract for 1 year. So they could offer 1yr/$7m contract to Shawn Marion, perhaps; Marion seemed on his way to Cleveland but in Indiana he could get more money and play a bigger role on a good squad. I think that's attractive to Marion. Ramon Sessions is still available, not an all-world player but he's a reliable veteran that will at least bring some aggressive play to the offensive end.
Or they could blow it up, wait for George to come back strong and see if the lottery bounces their way. Generally, I think winning is better than losing and Larry Bird doesn't want to rely on some rook out of the NCAA to save his bacon. But how does the blowing up work itself out? They've got 3 more years of George Hill at $8m per, Roy Hibbert is making $14.8 this year with a $15.5 player option for 2015-16, and a trio of expiring contracts in Scola ($4.8m), Copeland ($3.1m), Watson ($2.1m). Who wants these assets? Who needs Hibbert or Hill or a pile of expiring deals? I'm not seeing it.
The dream scenario is Hibbert to New Orleans straight up for Indy-born Eric Gordon, as their contracts are identical. Gordon would give them scoring and the Pacers do love their hometown heroes; but how could the Pelicans take Hibbert after they just brought in Omer Asik on a much cheaper deal with a clear purpose (and who's already bummed about wasting a year behind Dwight Howard)? If the Hibbert-Gordon deal had come up in June maybe it would've been do-able but not now. The Celtics might be interested in Hibbert but they would undoubtedly require taking Gerald Wallace back with Rondo, meaning the Pacers would have to offer up West too. Hibbert and West for 1 year of Rondo, 2 expensive years of Wallace and Olynyk? Don't seem worth it to me. West is a soldier, a guy I'd want to keep even if he's too expensive and 1 year of Rondo just isn't good enough for that; and taking back Wallace just throws the re-build all out of whack and there's no rim protection coming back. The whole identity of the Pacers would evaporate giving Paul George nothing to come back to. Or how about Hibbert for Jeff Green and Kieth Bogans? Is Green really an upgrade over the disastrous Evan Turner experiment? Bogans is a nice tenacious defender but he won't score and he's not a rim protector, the Pacers need to get back more for Hibbert than that. Unless the Pacers are willing to take back salaries they don't wanna pay or players they just don't need, I don't see how Hibbert or Hill get moved. And swapping expiring contracts is just re-shuffling the deck chairs.
As tempting as it is to say blow it up, I don't see how they pull that off. I think the Pacers gotta roll into next year with the squad they got, after begging Marion and Sessions to come aboard. The Pacers would still be solid on D, frustrating on offense and hopefully George comes back in time to make a playoff run. The Eastern conference is now even more mediocre and that is bad news for basketball fans.
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The injured player's exception this year is roughly the same as the mid-level exception (something in the $5.3m range). I thought it would be half of (in this case) Paul George's salary PLUS $100k (or some nominal amount) but it is actually that salary MINUS that nominal amount. A little lower than I anticipated but the 1 year length of the deal is still the rule.
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