Playoff Prediction: Spurs over Mavs in 5

The Mavs overachieved this year on the back of Dirk being Dirk and Monta Ellis taking a step forward as an all around basketball player.  There's no reason why this team of leftover veterans should've won 50 games but they did because Coach Carlisle demands defensive intensity and because Dirk is a still a solid bedrock to build on.

That said, the Spurs are a machine, finding another gear after all these years of superior play. Coach Popovich is a master at getting his key players rest and getting his role players to consistently contribute to the rotation.  This team knows what it is, they know how to travel, they know how to close out lesser opponents.

Spurs in 5.  The Mavs have one or two games of shooting out the lights and pushing the Spurs to the edge.  But they don't have enough to challenge for the series.  I've been impressed with Monta Ellis this year, Vince Carter is still an exciting offensive contributor, Shawn Marion still has game.  But there's no clear style at work on the offensive end.  The Mavs will play with pride and they won't hand games to the Spurs, but the Spurs' offensive possessions are much too efficient for the Mavs to compete with.  (For what its worth I would've preferred to see the Mavs play the Thunder and the Spurs play the Grizzlies (or the Suns))

Update 4.27.14 -- The Mavs are up 2-1 after Vince hit a 3 at the buzzer last night in Dallas.  This is intriguing because the Spurs are playing well and still not getting the wins.  Last night the Spurs shot 36-63 on 2-point shots, didn't turn the ball over or commit an inordinate amount of fouls but still couldn't separate from the Mavs.

I realize my earlier take was glib but I stand by it: when the Spurs are efficiently playing Spurs basketball they should win way more often than they lose.  So why are they down right now?  The easy answer is that the Mavs are playing efficiently right now too.  The aforementioned glowing stats for the Spurs were pretty well matched by the Mavs (with a few extra free throws and 3-pointers to make up the difference).  I didn't think the Spurs would dominate but I thought they would be consistently better at all phases of the game than the Mavs.  The complicated answer: more parity in the league than we realized.  The upcoming draft is one of the best ever and a number of teams geared themselves around positioning for draft choices rather than post-season play.  This gave us a deceptive look at this past season: the truly bad teams made themselves truly badder, perhaps inflating the top seeds (all of whom, save the Heat, are struggling right now) and distorting the mid-level teams.  Hey, man, the Hawks aren't bad, the Mavs aren't bad and the Grizzlies are probably the best 7-seed in the history of the game (didn't Drexler-Hakeem win the Championship as a 7 seed?).  Perhaps this season will produce an aberrant amount of upsets.  The Mavs would like to think so.

Whatever the answer, this series is not over and the Mavs have shown they can hang.  The Mavs are playing their game, no new wrinkles, no new adversities to overcome, they just walk it like they talk it.  And they're up on the Spurs, who are playing well.  This shows me the Mavs can hang and this series is almost certainly going 7 games.