Update 4.27.14 -- Wizards rolled the Bulls today in Game Four to take a 3-1 lead. I'm rescinding my original prediction and calling this series over. The Bulls could take another game but they just do not have enough scoring to win 3 more games holding their ground against the Wizards onslaught.
I originally thought that while the Wizards had up-and-coming talent, the Bulls play hard enough, efficient enough and have enough veteran savvy to win enough games to get to Game Seven, where you gotta go with the veterans on home court. I was pessimistic about a serious run by the Bulls simply because they played so hard throughout the regular season that they would be worn down come playoff time, but I thought they had enough pure moxy and frustrating defense to slip past a youthful Wizards team. If the Bulls encountered trouble along the way (which they would because the Wizards are sneaky good) then they would just entrench the pesky D, make adjustments and transform themselves as needed. But how do they transform when they're already playing as hard as they can? Do you play Jimmy Butler for only forty...six minutes a game? (In geopolitical terms: if we're already sanctioning Iran then how do we sanction them more?) And where does the scoring come from? In today's game it felt like Kirk Hinrich was working so hard to take mediocre shots that failed to go in. The Bulls offense never got going and certainly didn't have a second gear to kick into.
I wanted to take the Wizards--that was the upset d'jour pick of the cool kids--before this series started but I went with the Bulls because in the NBA the veterans usually find a way get by (and I took the Raptors over the Nets, so I figured I was already taxing that paradigm). But the Bulls have no scoring, man, just none. Mike Dunleavy is carrying them right now and that's not a recipe for the future. I can see the Bulls playing with pride and taking Game Five back in Chicago but I do not see the Bulls winning two more games--certainly not three. Also, I'm curious to see the Wizards in the next round. The more I watch this team the more I like them.
Wizards: Wall, Nene, Beal, Webster, Miller, Porter, Rice are under contract next year which leaves them well under the cap. Gortat, Ariza and Booker play big minutes, how hard do the Wizards try to bring them back next year? I like what each of those guys bring and while they're not breaking the bank next year, all three will want raises. Do the Wiz pass on those raises to the guys they know or take that money to the free agent casino? What to make of Otto Porter, how does he fit into next year's plan? Does Porter take attention from Ariza or Booker or both? I suspect they bring back Gortat, bring back Booker if he takes paltry money and let Ariza move on (wonder if there's room for him and Shaun Livingston to wear Knick uniforms next year?); this takes the Wiz out of contention for a big time free agent and they've moved their first round pick to the Suns. They've got a good core to build on, if they can add a cheap energy guy to bring off the bench to platoon with Porter, then there's their replacement (fingers crossed!) for Trevor Ariza.
Sunday, April 20, 2014
Playoff Prediction: Raptors over Nets in 6
4.29.14 -- This is my favorite series to watch so far--and that's saying something since this first round has been as wild as any in recent memory. 2-2 after 4 games and I'm not surprised, I knew all these games would be close. Going into this series I thought the teams were so statistically similar that it would all come down to the 4th quarter play. Most folks would go with the veterans in a 4th quarter contest but I've been impressed with the Raptors all year and (controversial statement) I think Kyle Lowry is the best player on the floor at any given moment. Not Deron Williams, not Paul Pierce, certainly not KG (dude, KG has been done for a coupla years now, why do we spend so much time talking about him?). Lowry is going to be the prized free agent on the market this summer (I'm rooting for the Bobcats to get him) and this series is his place to shine out. That said, I think Demarre DeRozan has been the best player. He's hitting his jumpers with poise, looking like next year's big bust out star (and without Lowry he and Valanciunas will have the whole team to themselves).
Looking over the box scores I noticed that the Raptors have outscored the Nets in 3 of the 4 4th quarters and 3 of the 4 1st quarters; the Nets have dominated the middle parts of each game. I think this still favors the Raptors. Whoever starts and finishes the strongest will win each game, I am convinced.
Am I sticking with Raptors in 6? Sure, why not? This series will probably go 7 but I like the Raptors to go up 3-2 after the next game and since each game is an even contest, I'll go ahead and take them to win game 6 back in Brooklyn. The Paul Pierce era will end quietly and I suspect he'll end up with the Celtics next year or the year after.
Nets: Next year they will welcome back Brook Lopez, say goodbye to Pierce and Livingston, silently fret over where to bury KG's corpse, and hope Williams and Johnson stay healthy and Aundray Blatche takes a step forward. That roster is still so over-priced its hard to imagine them making any moves next year or going any deeper in the playoffs. The experiment of over-spending has been a colossal waste of money (but the owner's a multi-gajillionaire so what do I care?) and the luxury cap defiance has hampered them with too many deals that are hard to metabolize. In two years they'll be better positioned to make moves as KG and Marcus Thornton exit. The Nets are still pretty good and in a crappy Eastern Conference that's pretty good. But if 5th was the best they could do with this line-up I can't put them any higher than that next year, unless Lopez and Blatche really dominate.
Looking over the box scores I noticed that the Raptors have outscored the Nets in 3 of the 4 4th quarters and 3 of the 4 1st quarters; the Nets have dominated the middle parts of each game. I think this still favors the Raptors. Whoever starts and finishes the strongest will win each game, I am convinced.
Am I sticking with Raptors in 6? Sure, why not? This series will probably go 7 but I like the Raptors to go up 3-2 after the next game and since each game is an even contest, I'll go ahead and take them to win game 6 back in Brooklyn. The Paul Pierce era will end quietly and I suspect he'll end up with the Celtics next year or the year after.
Nets: Next year they will welcome back Brook Lopez, say goodbye to Pierce and Livingston, silently fret over where to bury KG's corpse, and hope Williams and Johnson stay healthy and Aundray Blatche takes a step forward. That roster is still so over-priced its hard to imagine them making any moves next year or going any deeper in the playoffs. The experiment of over-spending has been a colossal waste of money (but the owner's a multi-gajillionaire so what do I care?) and the luxury cap defiance has hampered them with too many deals that are hard to metabolize. In two years they'll be better positioned to make moves as KG and Marcus Thornton exit. The Nets are still pretty good and in a crappy Eastern Conference that's pretty good. But if 5th was the best they could do with this line-up I can't put them any higher than that next year, unless Lopez and Blatche really dominate.
Playoff Prediction: Pacers over Hawks in 7
Update 4.27.14 -- This series is so-far-so-good. I thought the Pacers would struggle because, well, they are struggling. I assumed that by Game Seven the light would go on and they would realize that they are more talented than the Hawks, they are better than the Hawks and they deserve move on in the playoffs more than the Hawks do. I did not think the realization would come right away--hell, I thought maybe they could beat the Hawks without even making that realization--so I'm not surprised the series is tied after 4 games. The Pacers are like that drunk friend that you love but is getting too out of control to still be friends with. The only solution is a smack in the face, a wake-up call, and I'd like to think the Pacers have enough talent and enough sense to see the light, overcome their losing ways and get back to the elite where they belong. We'll see. I guess I still think that they will snap out of it but the Hawks don't suck, man. When Teague is in prime wheelin' and dealin' mode, he's fun to watch and Paul Millsapp is one of the great underappreciated players in the league right now. The Pacers are in a dangerous place right now and I'd rather see them get their act together than hold their hand through rehab.
Playoff Prediction: Heat over Bobcats in 5
Update 4.24.14 -- My initial thinking was the Bobcats would play hard and steal one (probably game 3) but wouldn't have enough depth to hang for long with the Heat. I thought the Heat would be gearing up to playoff mode and see the Bobcats as the perfect tune-up for tougher challenges. Big Al hurt his foot (plantar fasciitis) in the first half of the first game and though he gave good effort in game two (19 points, 14 boards in 40 mins), without a fully functioning Big Al the Bobcats don't really even have a chance to win the one game I thought they could. The Bobcats are the perfect first round opponent for the Heat: they play hard, you gotta get your game on to win, but they don't have enough talent to challenge deep into the 4th quarter. The Heat are up 2-0, I think they'll go ahead and wrap it up in Charlotte, get a coupla days off before round two. I'm not really changing my tune, just amending to point out that without Jefferson, there's not even a glimmer of a chance of a hope of a dream of maybe winning a game. Kemba's gotta put up like 30 shots a night--and get hot--and get to the foul line--and he's gotta do it all again tomorrow night. Nah, that ain't happening. I think the Heat takes this in 4.
Bobcats: Michael Jordan's strategy as GM (seems to me) is that old school mindset of grinding it out in the playoffs, learning how to win games by getting deeper into the post-season, going up against the best year after year. Most people say a mediocre collection of young talent like the Bobcats would be better off tanking games and getting into the lottery. But Jordan probably thinks if he's gotta wait for the #4 pick to save his career, then he'd rather play golf year round. Jordan is developing his own skills as an evaluater of talent, as a team builder, and where he wants to succeed is in the playoffs not the lottery. The Bobcats 1-12 have a lot of nice players. And that's nice. But in the NBA they ain't gonna win too many games or a playoff series. You gotta have a bedrock star and the Bobcats don't have it. Kemba Walker is a nice filler-upper but not a great one, MKG is a solid young defender but not a great scorer (not a great accumulator of the stats that nerds like me want to see), Zeller has good but not great potential, I like what I see from McRoberts, Douglas-Roberts. Henderson (they could all win rings in Popovich's world) and it feels like the coach is squeezing what he can from this crew; I love Big Al Jefferson, a Renaissance season this year, but he's not their bedrock star of the future just a quality number hanger for the next coupla years. If I'm the GM of this team I'm pleased to get blasted by Lebron in the first round because now I know I can bring in another free agent, mix up the locker room a little bit, coax another healthy year out of Big Al and the Bobcats might finish 3rd or 4th in a crappy Eastern Conference next year.* They go into the playoffs next year with home court and some expectations, that's how you make Kemba a star, that's how Big Al finally gets his due, that's how MKG wins Def POY, that's when you start peeling off role players and bring in a guy like Rondo or Zeebo or Pau Gasol (hmmmm....Evan Turner?) to give the squad some gravitas. Playoffs, man, f*** the lottery.
*(Bobcats 3rd next year in the East? Sure, why not: the Raptors probably won't be as good next year, the Nets will be a different team, the Knicks, Bucks, Celtics, Sixers will still suck, not sure what to expect out of the Pistons or the Bulls or even the Pacers; the Heat will be one of the two best teams guaranteed, the Wizards are coming, the Hawks might be better next year, Cavs and Magic are possible to take off next year. If the Bobcats get one nice free agent pickup, one or two pieces shuffled in/out, they might look like a playoff-hardened squad ready to take the next step. Very possible)
*(Bobcats 3rd next year in the East? Sure, why not: the Raptors probably won't be as good next year, the Nets will be a different team, the Knicks, Bucks, Celtics, Sixers will still suck, not sure what to expect out of the Pistons or the Bulls or even the Pacers; the Heat will be one of the two best teams guaranteed, the Wizards are coming, the Hawks might be better next year, Cavs and Magic are possible to take off next year. If the Bobcats get one nice free agent pickup, one or two pieces shuffled in/out, they might look like a playoff-hardened squad ready to take the next step. Very possible)
Playoff Prediction: Rockets over Blazers in 6
Update 4.26.14 -- Okay this Series caught me way off guard. My thinking was that the Rockets were solid enough to get past the Blazers, I thought the match-ups were well enough in their favor that they'd win more games (though not enough to compete with anyone else in the West). I thought the Blazers squad was nice but perhaps overachieving, this looks like another edition of the typical good-but-not-great Blazer team that we've seen for most of the last 25 years. I thought of the match-up thusly: Harden would live at the foul line sapping any deficiency gap he might have against Lillard; Aldridge would probably be better than Howard, Asik, Jones but he wouldn't dominate them so the triumvirate would eventually win out. But the Blazers aren't falling into Harden's foul traps and Aldridge after two games was, in fact, dominating the Rocket front line. Blazers win the first two games in Houston.
The Rockets stole a win in Game Three in Portland but I don't see that as an example of the tide turning. I think the Blazers have shown that if they can stick to their gameplan, than Harden and Howard's weaknesses will be exposed and the Blazers could blitz past them. I'm shifting from my original perception that the Rockets were (slightly) deeper and more efficient and now buying the narrative that the Blazers have solved those problems and should be able to outscore the Rockets most every night. I like the Blazers to win the next one and go up 3-1. I'm inclined to take the Blazers in 6 now (even with a loss at home). The Rockets could come back in 7 but 6 seems impossible.
The Rockets stole a win in Game Three in Portland but I don't see that as an example of the tide turning. I think the Blazers have shown that if they can stick to their gameplan, than Harden and Howard's weaknesses will be exposed and the Blazers could blitz past them. I'm shifting from my original perception that the Rockets were (slightly) deeper and more efficient and now buying the narrative that the Blazers have solved those problems and should be able to outscore the Rockets most every night. I like the Blazers to win the next one and go up 3-1. I'm inclined to take the Blazers in 6 now (even with a loss at home). The Rockets could come back in 7 but 6 seems impossible.
Playoff Prediction: Clippers over Warriors in 7
Update 4.26.14 -- Game One of this series was weird, the refs interjected themselves into the game early and often which led to Griffin and Iguodala spending large chunks of the game on the bench. The Warriors snuck a win, a mild upset. The Clippers dominated Game Two, played well enough in Game Three. Blake Griffin is the MVP so far, building on the growth he showed this season: increasingly better ball handler, plays offense with total confidence these days, making the most of Deandre Jordan's growth. What can I say? This series is pretty much what I expected: the Clippers strike me as the more sound team, the Warriors the wild risk/reward squad that can beat anybody anywhere or any given night. I expect the Warriors to win Sunday, even the Series heading back to LA. Otherwise this Series seems to be on its original glide path.
Playoff Prediction: Thunder over Grizzlies in 5
(I know I'm a day late on this one but is anyone surprised the Thunder took game one at home?) Durant is still in MVP-mode, Westbrook will play even angrier than usual (I fear for Patrick Beverly if he has to play Westbrook in the playoffs this year), Ibaka is a better contributor than he's ever been and while the rest of the rotation has some ups (Jackson, Sefolosha, Collison) and downs (Lamb, Thabeet, Fisher), there is enough scoring and rebounding to take out a team like the Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies play a slow-down, grinding style of ball that would threaten a Thunder squad without Westbrook. But their offense will be largely dependent on Mike Miller and Tayshaun Prince, which I just don't see as the answer. I like the Grizzlies to make the games sludgy and slow but the Thunder are too potent for that to be too successful. Indeed, I think the Grizzlies style will make the Thunder even more anxious to score early and often. I see the Grizzlies trying to dig themselves out of an early deficit in every game without enough firepower to pull that off.
Thunder in 5. I'll give the Grizzlies a game but even then I suspect it'll require some luck at the end of the game. I know this is supposed to be the quintessential defense versus offense match-up but I just don't see it.
The Grizzlies play a slow-down, grinding style of ball that would threaten a Thunder squad without Westbrook. But their offense will be largely dependent on Mike Miller and Tayshaun Prince, which I just don't see as the answer. I like the Grizzlies to make the games sludgy and slow but the Thunder are too potent for that to be too successful. Indeed, I think the Grizzlies style will make the Thunder even more anxious to score early and often. I see the Grizzlies trying to dig themselves out of an early deficit in every game without enough firepower to pull that off.
Thunder in 5. I'll give the Grizzlies a game but even then I suspect it'll require some luck at the end of the game. I know this is supposed to be the quintessential defense versus offense match-up but I just don't see it.
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