Games I saw some of:
Florida 29-21 Kentucky
*sigh* classic Kentucky football....Held the lead most of the game, had the chance to re-take the lead in the last minute, missed the FG, give up an extra TD while Florida was running out the clock, didn't even cover the spread. Oh well, UK did look better than Florida for most of this game and that's not insignificant; the flipside to that: I got a feeling Florida will be better with their 2nd string QB than they would've been with the starter. We'll see. Florida is fine but doesn't strike me as top ten quality; Kentucky is okay, should probably win more than they lose this year, which is nice.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Clemson, (2) Alabama, (3) Georgia, (4) LSU, (5) Oklahoma, (6) Ohio State, (7) Notre Dame, (8) Auburn, (11) Utah, (12) Texas, (13) Penn State, (15) Oregon, (16) Texas A&M, (17) Central Florida, (20) Washington State, (22) Boise State, (23) Washington, (25) Virginia
Won but did not impress
(9) Florida. Scrambling late to beat Kentucky who was handing them the game does not inspire confidence. Losing their starting QB could turn out to be a blessing in disguise...or it could be the death knell of their season (Kentucky ain't on the schedule no more!).
(19) Iowa. Pulling out a grudge match on the road is probably more impressive than I'm giving it credit for (I looked the other way for Penn State, for example).
Did not get it done
(18) Michigan State. Felt like they were gonna pull out the slugfest with Arizona State but they did not. Sparty has a good D but no offense to speak of.
(21) Maryland. They ran up the score well in their first coupla games but couldn't get it going against that Temple juggernaut.
(24) Southern Cal. Just reminds us that in this top 25 world, there are really only 15-20 teams worth keeping up with.
Notable games next week
(7) Notre Dame @ (3) Georgia (should be fun)
(11) Michigan @ (13) Wisconsin (can the Wolverine D stand up to the Badger running attack?)
(8) Auburn @ (17) Texas A&M (A&M strikes me as better than usual this year, that enough to give them a convincing W over an SEC West foe?)
(22)Washington @ BYU (this match could have a big impact on the PAC-12 this season)
Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 2)
Games I saw some of:
(12) Texas A&M 10-24 (1) Clemson
A&M looked good in the 1st half, kept the game close, didn't let Clemson low them out, covered the spread late....but...never felt like they were gonna win the game. Clemson didn't explode or anything but they handled a top quality opponent--which is something they didn't do last season until the playoffs. Clemson is still clearly a top-2 squad; A&M is nice, might make a difference in the SEC West (and they've always given Nick Saban problems).
(6) LSU 45-38 (9) Texas
I was actually pretty impressed with both teams. LSU always has a good defense but I was more into their offense: moved the ball well, made big plays, had a plan and followed through, which is not typical of LSU (hmmmm, feels like LSU-Bama might be a shootout this year instead the usual slugfest). Texas, too, had a good offense, stuck around even when it felt like they might give up, the fans may be disappointed but they lost to a good squad and seem plenty capable of hanging with OU (which is all that matters really). LSU looks top 10 to me, we'll see how long that lasts.
Army 21-24 (2OT) (7) Michigan
Had the game-winning FG lined up as time expired...tough time for their kicker to make his debut! Had the leg but pushed it wide and you just knew Michigan was gonna win in OT. Army is solid, man, they don't fuck around and they're gonna win more than they lose I am convinced. Michigan...I dunno...I was not impressed with their offense at all and the defense had moments but no real consistency, they sure don't look better than Ohio State right now.
Buffalo 13-45 (15) Penn State
1st half of this game was kinda fun. Buffalo's QB was making plays and they really brought a game effort. But after halftime, Penn State got it going and dominated. In this context I was more impressed with Buffalo than with the Nittany Lions. That said, I anticipate that Penn State will hang just fine in the Big 10.
(25) Nebraska 31-34 (OT) Colorado
Nebraska was better on offense and defense and managed to fritter this one away. When they just stay with their game plan, I think they'll be fine; but when it falters, they're gonna lose games. Colorado was nice, made some big plays, played off the raucous crowd well but did not seem like a particularly noteworthy football team.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Clemson, (2) Alabama, (3) Georgia, (4) Oklahoma, (5) Ohio State, (6) LSU, (10) Auburn, (11) Florida, (13) Utah, (15) Penn State, (16) Oregon, (17) Wisconsin, (18) Central Florida, (19) Michigan State, (20) Iowa, (22) Washington, (24) Boise State
Won but did not impress
(7) Michigan. Mmmmm....any offense at all? The D had its moments but didn't look exactly dominant. That said, they played an under appreciated opponent and did well not to fumble the W away.
Not so good
(14) Washington. Yipes! Taking an L in an early home game against a conference opponent that might not be any good....not good.
(21) Syracuse. Yeah, it was a road game against a pretty good-looking Maryland squad but giving up 63 as the favorite is a tough way to go. Ehh, the ranking was just an attempt at early hype prior to the Clemson match, no reason to think Syracuse is top 25.
(23) Stanford. Got smoked by Southern Cal, doesn't seem like a top 25 team.
(25) Nebraska. Should've won, didn't. I can see this team being up/down all year.
Bad beat
(9) Texas. Tough L at home but they played well against a good team and that's a good thing.
(12) Texas A&M. Shit, man, Clemson's good. A&M gave 'em a pretty good game.
Next week's interesting contests:
(hmmmm....nothing's jumping out at me; Florida-Kentucky, Syracuse-Clemson, Iowa-Iowa State should be fun but are they really?)
(12) Texas A&M 10-24 (1) Clemson
A&M looked good in the 1st half, kept the game close, didn't let Clemson low them out, covered the spread late....but...never felt like they were gonna win the game. Clemson didn't explode or anything but they handled a top quality opponent--which is something they didn't do last season until the playoffs. Clemson is still clearly a top-2 squad; A&M is nice, might make a difference in the SEC West (and they've always given Nick Saban problems).
(6) LSU 45-38 (9) Texas
I was actually pretty impressed with both teams. LSU always has a good defense but I was more into their offense: moved the ball well, made big plays, had a plan and followed through, which is not typical of LSU (hmmmm, feels like LSU-Bama might be a shootout this year instead the usual slugfest). Texas, too, had a good offense, stuck around even when it felt like they might give up, the fans may be disappointed but they lost to a good squad and seem plenty capable of hanging with OU (which is all that matters really). LSU looks top 10 to me, we'll see how long that lasts.
Army 21-24 (2OT) (7) Michigan
Had the game-winning FG lined up as time expired...tough time for their kicker to make his debut! Had the leg but pushed it wide and you just knew Michigan was gonna win in OT. Army is solid, man, they don't fuck around and they're gonna win more than they lose I am convinced. Michigan...I dunno...I was not impressed with their offense at all and the defense had moments but no real consistency, they sure don't look better than Ohio State right now.
Buffalo 13-45 (15) Penn State
1st half of this game was kinda fun. Buffalo's QB was making plays and they really brought a game effort. But after halftime, Penn State got it going and dominated. In this context I was more impressed with Buffalo than with the Nittany Lions. That said, I anticipate that Penn State will hang just fine in the Big 10.
(25) Nebraska 31-34 (OT) Colorado
Nebraska was better on offense and defense and managed to fritter this one away. When they just stay with their game plan, I think they'll be fine; but when it falters, they're gonna lose games. Colorado was nice, made some big plays, played off the raucous crowd well but did not seem like a particularly noteworthy football team.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Clemson, (2) Alabama, (3) Georgia, (4) Oklahoma, (5) Ohio State, (6) LSU, (10) Auburn, (11) Florida, (13) Utah, (15) Penn State, (16) Oregon, (17) Wisconsin, (18) Central Florida, (19) Michigan State, (20) Iowa, (22) Washington, (24) Boise State
Won but did not impress
(7) Michigan. Mmmmm....any offense at all? The D had its moments but didn't look exactly dominant. That said, they played an under appreciated opponent and did well not to fumble the W away.
Not so good
(14) Washington. Yipes! Taking an L in an early home game against a conference opponent that might not be any good....not good.
(21) Syracuse. Yeah, it was a road game against a pretty good-looking Maryland squad but giving up 63 as the favorite is a tough way to go. Ehh, the ranking was just an attempt at early hype prior to the Clemson match, no reason to think Syracuse is top 25.
(23) Stanford. Got smoked by Southern Cal, doesn't seem like a top 25 team.
(25) Nebraska. Should've won, didn't. I can see this team being up/down all year.
Bad beat
(9) Texas. Tough L at home but they played well against a good team and that's a good thing.
(12) Texas A&M. Shit, man, Clemson's good. A&M gave 'em a pretty good game.
Next week's interesting contests:
(hmmmm....nothing's jumping out at me; Florida-Kentucky, Syracuse-Clemson, Iowa-Iowa State should be fun but are they really?)
2019-20 NFL Week 1
Games I saw some of:
Packers 10-3 Bears
Man, the Bears offense was a steady stream of dumb penalties and bonehead plays, though when they weren't shooting themselves in the foot you could kinda see how it could work; Bears D was pretty tough, held Aaron Rodgers to 10 points, got no help from the offense tonight. The Packers offense didn't tear it up but they looked pretty comfortable at getting 5-10 yard chunks, could be a dangerous offense this season; the Packer D was pretty good, impressed with the secondary. Definitely came away more impressed by the Packers, if Rodgers stays healthy and this D stays together, I can see them being really good; as for the Bears, I'm already backing away from winning the division, that D will keep them in games but Trubisky has got to learn to win them (and I'm dubious of that happening).
Redskins 27-32 Eagles
Redskins rocked out in the 1st half (up 20-0 at halftime) but even when they were rolling it didn't feel real, always felt like the Eagles could still get the W if they just wanted it. And in the 2nd half, apparently, they wanted it and the pretty much pummeled Washington after halftime, started slow but rolled once they put their minds to it. Fun to see Desean Jackson back in an Eagle uni, Wentz looked good, the offense spread around nicely, defense kinda sucked in the 1st half but solid in the 2nd; decent performance from the Redskins but I reckon they're gonna be good-bad all year.
Bengals 20-21 Seahawks
Hey, man: Andy Dalton does not suck, he's not great but he's not bad and that alone is a decent place to start for a team. Early in the season, yes, but I don't think the Seahawks are actually even this good and I think the Bengals can be better. The Seahawks kinda waffled most of the game, the defense is okay, the team around Russell Wilson is so-so and Wilson is too valuable to be allowed to do anything, I don't see where the offense is gonna come from for the Seahawks (of course, I've thought that for the last few years). I don't know that the Bengals are gonna win games but I think they're gonna cover spreads, they're gonna be in games and if they can learn to steal W's, I think they could actually be okay.
Giants 17-35 Cowboys
Dang, that Cowboys offense looks for real, defense wasn't bad either. Giants kinda suck on both sides but Saquon Barkley is an unholy badass (wasted on a crappy team), gonna be tough for the Giants to win 4 games this year, I expect Eli to long gone by Halloween. The Giants are so bad, its a little hard to tell how good the Cowboys are (they looked good, though), seems like a playoff team to me.
Steelers 3-33 Pats
This game was not as close as the score indicates--frankly I thought Brady was not that good on this night, he seemed like he was just going through the motions. The Pats D looks pretty great, the receiving corps looked good (and that's before the arrival of Antonio Bryant and their #1 draft pick), seems like they might be pretty good this year. Steelers sucked so bad tonight that I got nothing out of watching them, they can't be this bad, so hard to tell where they fit in the AFC North.
Games I saw none of:
Titans 43-13 Browns
19 penalties on the Browns, there you go. Titans can't be this good (not sure they looked good anyway); Browns probably aren't this bad but the hype has been deflated now, right?
Ravens 59-10 Dolphins
Yup: Ravens are good, Dolphins are bad. The score is eye-popping but the result isn't really much of a surprise.
Falcons 21-28 Vikings
The Falcons look pretty lackluster; feels like the Vikings might fit right in with the Bears and the Packers.
Bills 17-16 Jets
Ha! NYJ was up 16-0 late in the game, the final score crawls by and they just lost. Jets gonna Jet, man. What's up with the Bills? If their weirdo QB turns out good then they might could be good.
Rams 30-27 Panthers
This score feels about right: the Rams won on the road, scored points, made the plays down the stretch; Panthers put points on the board but got snaked by a better team. Feels like both of these squads are gonna be good.
Chiefs 40-26 Jags
The Chiefs are so good on offense and so bad on defense, this score looks right. The big story is that new Jags QB Nick Foles broke his collarbone which will take him out of action for a while (the whole season?), though fortunately their backup (already can't remember his name) played pretty well. But the Chiefs D is not good, man, so hard to tell anything about the Jags offense here.
Colts 24-30 (OT) Chargers
I dunno what to make of this. The Chargers should have advanced enough by now to actually win the easy game but they just don't do that, they don't finish off the easy wins, every game is a struggle with these guys. As a result, its hard to tell whether the Colts have seem real spunk to them or whether they just overachieved against a classic underachiever.
Lions 27-27 Cards
Two bad teams. The Lions had this in hand and they let the rookie QB come back on them, exactly what a veteran defense with some moxy should not allow. The Cards are gonna scuffle all year long but seems like Kyler Murray is gonna be fun to watch, might even steal some W's.
Niners 31-17 Bucs
Two bad teams. How much longer is Jameis Winston gonna last? Yeah, he's got skills but if every pass goes to the other team, then who cares how nice the spiral is? And did we learn anything about the Niners from this? A nothing game.
Texans 28-30 Saints
The Saints ought to be better but they got the W, that's all that matters (according to Parcells). The Texans...I dunno, lost a heartbreaker. I didn't see any of this (wish I had!) so got no feel for the feel of it.
Broncos 16-24 Raiders
I think both of these teams are bad. Division games are unpredictable, so don't get too excited about this. I think the Broncos are gonna be up/down all year and there's no reason at all to think the Raiders are any good.
Packers 10-3 Bears
Man, the Bears offense was a steady stream of dumb penalties and bonehead plays, though when they weren't shooting themselves in the foot you could kinda see how it could work; Bears D was pretty tough, held Aaron Rodgers to 10 points, got no help from the offense tonight. The Packers offense didn't tear it up but they looked pretty comfortable at getting 5-10 yard chunks, could be a dangerous offense this season; the Packer D was pretty good, impressed with the secondary. Definitely came away more impressed by the Packers, if Rodgers stays healthy and this D stays together, I can see them being really good; as for the Bears, I'm already backing away from winning the division, that D will keep them in games but Trubisky has got to learn to win them (and I'm dubious of that happening).
Redskins 27-32 Eagles
Redskins rocked out in the 1st half (up 20-0 at halftime) but even when they were rolling it didn't feel real, always felt like the Eagles could still get the W if they just wanted it. And in the 2nd half, apparently, they wanted it and the pretty much pummeled Washington after halftime, started slow but rolled once they put their minds to it. Fun to see Desean Jackson back in an Eagle uni, Wentz looked good, the offense spread around nicely, defense kinda sucked in the 1st half but solid in the 2nd; decent performance from the Redskins but I reckon they're gonna be good-bad all year.
Bengals 20-21 Seahawks
Hey, man: Andy Dalton does not suck, he's not great but he's not bad and that alone is a decent place to start for a team. Early in the season, yes, but I don't think the Seahawks are actually even this good and I think the Bengals can be better. The Seahawks kinda waffled most of the game, the defense is okay, the team around Russell Wilson is so-so and Wilson is too valuable to be allowed to do anything, I don't see where the offense is gonna come from for the Seahawks (of course, I've thought that for the last few years). I don't know that the Bengals are gonna win games but I think they're gonna cover spreads, they're gonna be in games and if they can learn to steal W's, I think they could actually be okay.
Giants 17-35 Cowboys
Dang, that Cowboys offense looks for real, defense wasn't bad either. Giants kinda suck on both sides but Saquon Barkley is an unholy badass (wasted on a crappy team), gonna be tough for the Giants to win 4 games this year, I expect Eli to long gone by Halloween. The Giants are so bad, its a little hard to tell how good the Cowboys are (they looked good, though), seems like a playoff team to me.
Steelers 3-33 Pats
This game was not as close as the score indicates--frankly I thought Brady was not that good on this night, he seemed like he was just going through the motions. The Pats D looks pretty great, the receiving corps looked good (and that's before the arrival of Antonio Bryant and their #1 draft pick), seems like they might be pretty good this year. Steelers sucked so bad tonight that I got nothing out of watching them, they can't be this bad, so hard to tell where they fit in the AFC North.
Games I saw none of:
Titans 43-13 Browns
19 penalties on the Browns, there you go. Titans can't be this good (not sure they looked good anyway); Browns probably aren't this bad but the hype has been deflated now, right?
Ravens 59-10 Dolphins
Yup: Ravens are good, Dolphins are bad. The score is eye-popping but the result isn't really much of a surprise.
Falcons 21-28 Vikings
The Falcons look pretty lackluster; feels like the Vikings might fit right in with the Bears and the Packers.
Bills 17-16 Jets
Ha! NYJ was up 16-0 late in the game, the final score crawls by and they just lost. Jets gonna Jet, man. What's up with the Bills? If their weirdo QB turns out good then they might could be good.
Rams 30-27 Panthers
This score feels about right: the Rams won on the road, scored points, made the plays down the stretch; Panthers put points on the board but got snaked by a better team. Feels like both of these squads are gonna be good.
Chiefs 40-26 Jags
The Chiefs are so good on offense and so bad on defense, this score looks right. The big story is that new Jags QB Nick Foles broke his collarbone which will take him out of action for a while (the whole season?), though fortunately their backup (already can't remember his name) played pretty well. But the Chiefs D is not good, man, so hard to tell anything about the Jags offense here.
Colts 24-30 (OT) Chargers
I dunno what to make of this. The Chargers should have advanced enough by now to actually win the easy game but they just don't do that, they don't finish off the easy wins, every game is a struggle with these guys. As a result, its hard to tell whether the Colts have seem real spunk to them or whether they just overachieved against a classic underachiever.
Lions 27-27 Cards
Two bad teams. The Lions had this in hand and they let the rookie QB come back on them, exactly what a veteran defense with some moxy should not allow. The Cards are gonna scuffle all year long but seems like Kyler Murray is gonna be fun to watch, might even steal some W's.
Niners 31-17 Bucs
Two bad teams. How much longer is Jameis Winston gonna last? Yeah, he's got skills but if every pass goes to the other team, then who cares how nice the spiral is? And did we learn anything about the Niners from this? A nothing game.
Texans 28-30 Saints
The Saints ought to be better but they got the W, that's all that matters (according to Parcells). The Texans...I dunno, lost a heartbreaker. I didn't see any of this (wish I had!) so got no feel for the feel of it.
Broncos 16-24 Raiders
I think both of these teams are bad. Division games are unpredictable, so don't get too excited about this. I think the Broncos are gonna be up/down all year and there's no reason at all to think the Raiders are any good.
Thursday, September 5, 2019
Anyone else tired of the ticker?
I lived in Charlotte, NC, in 1996. I mention this because though that was a Kentucky Wildcat championship season (still one of the best NCAA teams I ever saw), their games were not readily available to me because I lived in enemy territory. So as disappointing as it is to recollect missing that game, at the time it wasn't that strange I was at work (or at the movies) instead of watching the SEC Tournament final.
So I come home from work that night (March 10, 1996), pop on the ESPN and along the bottom of the screen was the ticker of basketball scores. I still recall the first time that SEC final score came along and when seeing that Mississippi State had beaten Kentucky, I thought how odd it was that the ticker had the score wrong. I mean, how is it possible that Kentucky could've lost that game? Hours later, a full day of watching sports (or whatever) I was blown away that the ticker still had the score wrong.
In fact, UK did lose that game (*) and I still can't believe it. Indeed, that is probably the most surprising loss in all of my decades of watching UK basketball. So surprising was this loss that in fact my first instinct (indeed, my second and third, as well) was to blame the scoreboard rather than just accepting that my beloved squad dropped an easy one.
I tell that story to show my fealty to the ticker. I actually have a discernible sports memory related to the ticker itself, which was still a pretty brand new invention in 1996. Hey, man, back in the day a slow crawl of sports scores across the bottom of the screen was better than the moon landing! It made one feel up to date, enlightened about things that actually matter (like whether the Jets were able to cover against the Dolphins). I'd happily rank the tinker among the better innovations of our media age, in its day it gave so much info with so little effort. But like the VCR, another good innovation from back in the day, we have outgrown it.
Now we have laptops, smart phones, smart watches, smart eyeglasses, pads, pods and Twitter. Now we have no shortage of places to get sports scores. The sports ticker is nothing but a nuisance now, a vestigial leftover of a time that no longer exists. Everything has gotten better, faster, more abundant...
...but there is one thing that has not exponentially grown in the last 20 years: time to watch sports. Watching my baseball, basketball and soccer on tape delay allows me to watch more sports by fitting the games into my schedule instead of jamming myself into a space-time continuum that benefits me less.
Sports is still considered a must-see live spectacle but I find that's really only true of football. (**) Everything else can wait, which works just fine--as long as I don't know the score of the game before I sit down to watch it!
The ticker tells me of things I do not want to know. It takes up space on the screen. It attracts my busy eyes which is what the football game I'm watching ought to be doing. It busily reminds me at all times that I don't need it for anything!
I'm talking to you, ABC Sports: I don't need the damn ticker! I know you think you're being cool by pummeling me with European soccer scores but actually you are only ruining my enjoyment of those matches. I know you think you're performing some kind of service by giving a steady stream of baseball scores, but I'd really rather you didn't. If I wanted to know them, they are readily available to me. You are not helping me enjoy sports, ABC, you are punishing me for watching your sport first. (***)
(*) Kentucky just missed the chance to avenge that loss to Mississippi State in the NCAA finals, but Syracuse hung on and made it to the title game instead. Oh, man, UK would've beaten Mississippi State by 400 points!
(**) Also the NCAA tourney, World Cup soccer, the Masters--which just goes to show that the extraordinary events in other sports are roughly equal to every day ordinary football games. I don't know how to explain it but I've long believed that football is as big as anything in America.
(***) Punishing the customer works in some industries but I bet sports entertainment isn't one of them.
So I come home from work that night (March 10, 1996), pop on the ESPN and along the bottom of the screen was the ticker of basketball scores. I still recall the first time that SEC final score came along and when seeing that Mississippi State had beaten Kentucky, I thought how odd it was that the ticker had the score wrong. I mean, how is it possible that Kentucky could've lost that game? Hours later, a full day of watching sports (or whatever) I was blown away that the ticker still had the score wrong.
In fact, UK did lose that game (*) and I still can't believe it. Indeed, that is probably the most surprising loss in all of my decades of watching UK basketball. So surprising was this loss that in fact my first instinct (indeed, my second and third, as well) was to blame the scoreboard rather than just accepting that my beloved squad dropped an easy one.
I tell that story to show my fealty to the ticker. I actually have a discernible sports memory related to the ticker itself, which was still a pretty brand new invention in 1996. Hey, man, back in the day a slow crawl of sports scores across the bottom of the screen was better than the moon landing! It made one feel up to date, enlightened about things that actually matter (like whether the Jets were able to cover against the Dolphins). I'd happily rank the tinker among the better innovations of our media age, in its day it gave so much info with so little effort. But like the VCR, another good innovation from back in the day, we have outgrown it.
Now we have laptops, smart phones, smart watches, smart eyeglasses, pads, pods and Twitter. Now we have no shortage of places to get sports scores. The sports ticker is nothing but a nuisance now, a vestigial leftover of a time that no longer exists. Everything has gotten better, faster, more abundant...
...but there is one thing that has not exponentially grown in the last 20 years: time to watch sports. Watching my baseball, basketball and soccer on tape delay allows me to watch more sports by fitting the games into my schedule instead of jamming myself into a space-time continuum that benefits me less.
Sports is still considered a must-see live spectacle but I find that's really only true of football. (**) Everything else can wait, which works just fine--as long as I don't know the score of the game before I sit down to watch it!
The ticker tells me of things I do not want to know. It takes up space on the screen. It attracts my busy eyes which is what the football game I'm watching ought to be doing. It busily reminds me at all times that I don't need it for anything!
I'm talking to you, ABC Sports: I don't need the damn ticker! I know you think you're being cool by pummeling me with European soccer scores but actually you are only ruining my enjoyment of those matches. I know you think you're performing some kind of service by giving a steady stream of baseball scores, but I'd really rather you didn't. If I wanted to know them, they are readily available to me. You are not helping me enjoy sports, ABC, you are punishing me for watching your sport first. (***)
(*) Kentucky just missed the chance to avenge that loss to Mississippi State in the NCAA finals, but Syracuse hung on and made it to the title game instead. Oh, man, UK would've beaten Mississippi State by 400 points!
(**) Also the NCAA tourney, World Cup soccer, the Masters--which just goes to show that the extraordinary events in other sports are roughly equal to every day ordinary football games. I don't know how to explain it but I've long believed that football is as big as anything in America.
(***) Punishing the customer works in some industries but I bet sports entertainment isn't one of them.
Wednesday, September 4, 2019
2019-20 NFL Over/Unders
Ahhhhh....football.
Here's my methodology for the last few years: before the season I pick a winner for each of the 256 regular season games (straight up, no spreads). Last year I did much better picking pre-season winners (153-101-2) than I did picking in-season games against the spread (108-144-4--ouch!). Not sure why, probably just a weird fluke and this season should swing back the other way (right?). Doing this exercise produced some results I think others would find weird (I did, others probably would, too), but it is what it is. Curious to see how these predictions hold up.
AFC EAST
(11.5) Pats (11-5) (under)
(4.5) Dolphins (7-9) (over)
(7.5) Bills (6-10) (under)
(7.5) Jets (3-13) (under)
Hot take: I think this is Tom Brady's last year (with the Pats, anyway). I think the Belichik-Brady years finished with another division win and a run into the playoffs (eh, I don't see them going as far as usual this year). 2nd hot take: The Pats trade for Jimmy Garoppolo on Draft Day 2020.
Everyone is expecting the Dolphins to suck and they may be right but I still don't see that division as anything too hard for the Dolphins. And just because the GM wants to lose doesn't mean the players do.
I have the Bills falling just a bit short (again) of their usual 8-8. The O-line is still a problem, the skill players don't look any better than last year and the QB is still a question mark (though a more optimistic one than they've had in eons). The Bills will be the regular ol' Bills (but once Brady's gone, they could be poised to finally be good next year).
The Jets, man, are the Jets. The belief that they've solved their problems is as misguided as ever.
AFC NORTH
(8) Ravens (13-3) (over)
(5.5) Bengals (10-6) (over)
(9) Steelers (10-6) (over)
(9) Browns (7-9) (under)
I like the Ravens this year. They know who they are on defense and if Lamar Jackson has a good year, this team could be really good.
Yeah, here we go: I got the Bengals winning 10 games and making the playoffs. Why? I dunno. I ran through the games and just figured the Bengals would win more than they lose. I'm probably way off on this, we'll see.
Steelers feel like they're trudging to the finish. Feels like Ben is just about done, I can even see Coach Tomlin moving on. This team needs a shot in the arm, not sure where it comes from.
The Browns are overrated. I get it, the team that finished well last year is the team everyone expects to take off the next year. But I think the Browns have one more year of floundering before they'll be ready to take off.
AFC SOUTH
(8) Texans (9-7) (over)
(7.5) Jags (8-8) (over)
(7.5) Titans (7-9) (under)
(9.5) Colts (2-14) (under)
I dunno....the Texans? I'm not in on any of these teams, feels like the Texans should have the best defense (yeah, feels like that every year) and they do have a potential superstar QB (he played all last season, so why didn't they take off then?), so they have the goods to make a move in this division. Are they gonna do it? I dunno....is someone else gonna do it?
The Jags are the team that could be wildly better than we think. They had a weird good run two years ago then disappeared last season, could be a reappearance year for the Jags. That said, I'm not banking on it (I just think it could happen).
The Titans are the classic 8-8 kinda squad, I don't see them overachieving but I don't see them totally bottoming out, either.
I was not as high as everyone else on the Colts before Andrew Luck checked out and while I've actually been reasonably impressed by Jacoby Brissett, I think the Colts O-line is gonna struggle and that defense is not good enough to carry a weak offense. I think the coach is on the hot seat, the fans revolt, I can see this team unraveling badly this year.
AFC WEST
(10.5) Chiefs (14-2) (over)
(10) Chargers (10-6) (push)
(7) Broncos (4-12) (under)
(6) Raiders (4-12) (under)
I'm kinda stunned that the over/under for the Chiefs is 10.5...10.5? Dang, they're gonna have ten wins by the end of September! Okay, not possible, but I'm all in, these guys are the real deal, they will take all comers in the AFC.
The Chargers are still good enough to hang around and steal games again. The D is pretty good and Rivers is still Rivers, so I expect them to get W's.
I think the Broncos'll suck. Feels like they'll be rebuilding their defense and offense at the same time, which is a tough way to go.
The Raiders will suck, too. I think Coach Gruden will bungle through this year, then make a serious run at being good next year (and likely fail) and then head back to ESPN.
NFC EAST
(10.5) Eagles (11-5) (over)
(9) Cowboys (10-6) (over)
(6.5) Redskins (7-9) (over)
(6) Giants (4-12) (under)
I see the Eagles bouncing back and having a good year. Feels like Wentz is ready for a bust-out season and the Eagles are still good on both sides of the ball.
I think the Cowboys will be pretty good but not good enough.
I was surprised how many W's I had the Redskins getting, just seems like they ought to be worse than this.
The Giants will keep trying to work Eli Manning, it will keep not working, then they'll reach for the rookie QB (which also won't work). I actually have three teams worse than the Giants but these guys feel like a good candidate for #1 pick.
NFC NORTH
(9) Bears (11-5)
(9) Vikings (10-6)
(9) Packers (9-7)
(7) Lions (6-10)
I just got a feeling about the Bears. I like that D, I think Trubisky is ready to level up again, I think they're the best in a tough division.
The Vikings had their shot last year and they didn't show up. Yeah, I got 'em winning 10 games but I don't have 'em in the playoffs.
The Packers could be wildly different from my pre-season pick: I can see them going nuts and being good or going nuts and being terrible. We'll see.
I don't hate this Lions team but I don't have high hopes either. That said, winning 6 games wouldn't be bad for Detroit.
NFC SOUTH
(10) Saints (12-4)
(8) Panthers (10-6)
(5.5) Falcons (9-7)
(6.5) Bucs (5-11)
The Saints worry me: I have them winning 12 games and cruising through that division but I can see them taking a big step backward, too. I'll stick with them to keep it going but when the wheels come off this team, it'll make for an ugly crash.
I got the Panthers in the playoffs...not sure why.
I'm a little surprised their o/u was so low, this team was built to go 8-8, don't ya think?
I'm not in on the Bucs, man, you can have them.
NFC WEST
(10) Rams (13-3)
(8.5) Seahawks (6-10)
(5.5) Cards (5-11)
(8.5) Niners (3-13)
Rams are ready to bust out, last year was just a taste, I think the Rams (along with the Chiefs) will be the buzz team this season.
I'm surprised I had the Seahawks winning as many as 6 games because they rely much too much on Russell Wilson pulling it out of the fire and I just don't think that's a winning strategy. But I don't care for the rest of the division, so that helps them a lot.
The Cards are just built to be terrible this year (rookie QB, rookie coach, over-priced defense) so winning 5 games actually feels like a great season for them.
Some are saying the Niners are ready to take over but I already hot-taked my belief that Jimmy G heads back to New England next summer and I think that comes from a disappointing, injury-filled season with San Fran.
Playoffs
Pats over Bengals; Chargers over Texans
Bears over Cowboys; Eagles over Panthers
Ravens over Pats; Chiefs over Chargers
Eagles over Rams; Saints over Bears
Chiefs over Ravens
Eagles over Saints
Chiefs over Eagles
Here's my methodology for the last few years: before the season I pick a winner for each of the 256 regular season games (straight up, no spreads). Last year I did much better picking pre-season winners (153-101-2) than I did picking in-season games against the spread (108-144-4--ouch!). Not sure why, probably just a weird fluke and this season should swing back the other way (right?). Doing this exercise produced some results I think others would find weird (I did, others probably would, too), but it is what it is. Curious to see how these predictions hold up.
AFC EAST
(11.5) Pats (11-5) (under)
(4.5) Dolphins (7-9) (over)
(7.5) Bills (6-10) (under)
(7.5) Jets (3-13) (under)
Hot take: I think this is Tom Brady's last year (with the Pats, anyway). I think the Belichik-Brady years finished with another division win and a run into the playoffs (eh, I don't see them going as far as usual this year). 2nd hot take: The Pats trade for Jimmy Garoppolo on Draft Day 2020.
Everyone is expecting the Dolphins to suck and they may be right but I still don't see that division as anything too hard for the Dolphins. And just because the GM wants to lose doesn't mean the players do.
I have the Bills falling just a bit short (again) of their usual 8-8. The O-line is still a problem, the skill players don't look any better than last year and the QB is still a question mark (though a more optimistic one than they've had in eons). The Bills will be the regular ol' Bills (but once Brady's gone, they could be poised to finally be good next year).
The Jets, man, are the Jets. The belief that they've solved their problems is as misguided as ever.
AFC NORTH
(8) Ravens (13-3) (over)
(5.5) Bengals (10-6) (over)
(9) Steelers (10-6) (over)
(9) Browns (7-9) (under)
I like the Ravens this year. They know who they are on defense and if Lamar Jackson has a good year, this team could be really good.
Yeah, here we go: I got the Bengals winning 10 games and making the playoffs. Why? I dunno. I ran through the games and just figured the Bengals would win more than they lose. I'm probably way off on this, we'll see.
Steelers feel like they're trudging to the finish. Feels like Ben is just about done, I can even see Coach Tomlin moving on. This team needs a shot in the arm, not sure where it comes from.
The Browns are overrated. I get it, the team that finished well last year is the team everyone expects to take off the next year. But I think the Browns have one more year of floundering before they'll be ready to take off.
AFC SOUTH
(8) Texans (9-7) (over)
(7.5) Jags (8-8) (over)
(7.5) Titans (7-9) (under)
(9.5) Colts (2-14) (under)
I dunno....the Texans? I'm not in on any of these teams, feels like the Texans should have the best defense (yeah, feels like that every year) and they do have a potential superstar QB (he played all last season, so why didn't they take off then?), so they have the goods to make a move in this division. Are they gonna do it? I dunno....is someone else gonna do it?
The Jags are the team that could be wildly better than we think. They had a weird good run two years ago then disappeared last season, could be a reappearance year for the Jags. That said, I'm not banking on it (I just think it could happen).
The Titans are the classic 8-8 kinda squad, I don't see them overachieving but I don't see them totally bottoming out, either.
I was not as high as everyone else on the Colts before Andrew Luck checked out and while I've actually been reasonably impressed by Jacoby Brissett, I think the Colts O-line is gonna struggle and that defense is not good enough to carry a weak offense. I think the coach is on the hot seat, the fans revolt, I can see this team unraveling badly this year.
AFC WEST
(10.5) Chiefs (14-2) (over)
(10) Chargers (10-6) (push)
(7) Broncos (4-12) (under)
(6) Raiders (4-12) (under)
I'm kinda stunned that the over/under for the Chiefs is 10.5...10.5? Dang, they're gonna have ten wins by the end of September! Okay, not possible, but I'm all in, these guys are the real deal, they will take all comers in the AFC.
The Chargers are still good enough to hang around and steal games again. The D is pretty good and Rivers is still Rivers, so I expect them to get W's.
I think the Broncos'll suck. Feels like they'll be rebuilding their defense and offense at the same time, which is a tough way to go.
The Raiders will suck, too. I think Coach Gruden will bungle through this year, then make a serious run at being good next year (and likely fail) and then head back to ESPN.
NFC EAST
(10.5) Eagles (11-5) (over)
(9) Cowboys (10-6) (over)
(6.5) Redskins (7-9) (over)
(6) Giants (4-12) (under)
I see the Eagles bouncing back and having a good year. Feels like Wentz is ready for a bust-out season and the Eagles are still good on both sides of the ball.
I think the Cowboys will be pretty good but not good enough.
I was surprised how many W's I had the Redskins getting, just seems like they ought to be worse than this.
The Giants will keep trying to work Eli Manning, it will keep not working, then they'll reach for the rookie QB (which also won't work). I actually have three teams worse than the Giants but these guys feel like a good candidate for #1 pick.
NFC NORTH
(9) Bears (11-5)
(9) Vikings (10-6)
(9) Packers (9-7)
(7) Lions (6-10)
I just got a feeling about the Bears. I like that D, I think Trubisky is ready to level up again, I think they're the best in a tough division.
The Vikings had their shot last year and they didn't show up. Yeah, I got 'em winning 10 games but I don't have 'em in the playoffs.
The Packers could be wildly different from my pre-season pick: I can see them going nuts and being good or going nuts and being terrible. We'll see.
I don't hate this Lions team but I don't have high hopes either. That said, winning 6 games wouldn't be bad for Detroit.
NFC SOUTH
(10) Saints (12-4)
(8) Panthers (10-6)
(5.5) Falcons (9-7)
(6.5) Bucs (5-11)
The Saints worry me: I have them winning 12 games and cruising through that division but I can see them taking a big step backward, too. I'll stick with them to keep it going but when the wheels come off this team, it'll make for an ugly crash.
I got the Panthers in the playoffs...not sure why.
I'm a little surprised their o/u was so low, this team was built to go 8-8, don't ya think?
I'm not in on the Bucs, man, you can have them.
NFC WEST
(10) Rams (13-3)
(8.5) Seahawks (6-10)
(5.5) Cards (5-11)
(8.5) Niners (3-13)
Rams are ready to bust out, last year was just a taste, I think the Rams (along with the Chiefs) will be the buzz team this season.
I'm surprised I had the Seahawks winning as many as 6 games because they rely much too much on Russell Wilson pulling it out of the fire and I just don't think that's a winning strategy. But I don't care for the rest of the division, so that helps them a lot.
The Cards are just built to be terrible this year (rookie QB, rookie coach, over-priced defense) so winning 5 games actually feels like a great season for them.
Some are saying the Niners are ready to take over but I already hot-taked my belief that Jimmy G heads back to New England next summer and I think that comes from a disappointing, injury-filled season with San Fran.
Playoffs
Pats over Bengals; Chargers over Texans
Bears over Cowboys; Eagles over Panthers
Ravens over Pats; Chiefs over Chargers
Eagles over Rams; Saints over Bears
Chiefs over Ravens
Eagles over Saints
Chiefs over Eagles
2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 1+)
Ahhhhhhh.....football.
Games I saw some of
(11) Oregon 21-27 (16) Auburn
I was impressed by Oregon's QB and Auburn's true-freshman QB, too. Oregon was rolling pretty well at first, then turned timid late and stop making plays; Auburn laid low til halftime, then pulled it out in the 2nd half. I was more impressed with both teams than I thought I would be. Comparing this to last year's Auburn-Washington match-up (when both squads were ranked in the top ten), I suspect Auburn and Oregon are both better this season than that game showed off. I've love to see Auburn give Bama a game (I guess it's possible) and I can see Oregon winning the Pac-12.
Northwestern 7-17 (25) Stanford
Kept expecting more out of Northwestern's QB, he had moments but didn't get it done down the stretch. As for Stanford, they look like a 'nice' team, no major mistakes but no overachieving either, I can see them being in the #20-#30 range pretty much all season.
Houston 31- 49 (4) Oklahoma
Wow, OU's offense is gonna be top notch this year, but...hmmmm...that defense kinda gave up some points to a nothing-special looking Houston squad. Its easy to see the Heisman Hurts talk is ready to take off but I'm not sure that D is gonna get them to the playoff--and come on, man, Oklahoma-Alabama is a game we've got to see!
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Clemson, (2) Alabama, (3) Georgia, (4) Oklahoma, (5) Ohio State, (6) Louisiana State, (7) Michigan, (9) Notre Dame, (10) Texas, (12) Texas A&M, (13) Washington, (14) Utah, (15) Penn State, (16) Auburn, (17) Central Florida, (18) Michigan State, (19) Wisconsin, (20) Iowa, (22) Syracuse, (23) Washington State, (24) Nebraska, (25) Stanford
Won but did not impress
(8) Florida. Miami didn't look all that good and probably should've beaten Florida. Coming in I thought Florida would be in good position to beat Georgia this year, but after this game I no longer see that as a possibility. We'll see, perhaps we'll look back on this as a great save rather than a near giveaway.
(21) Iowa State. Northern Iowa is a pretty good squad and the Cyclones did pull their shit together and avoid disaster, but you'd like to see a little more assured confidence in a home opener. Iowa State has a knack for giving really good teams a scare and I guess they're the kinda squad that gives up scares to lesser teams, too.
Bad beat
(11) Oregon. I suspect they're good, man, decent chance we look back on this L to Auburn as an impressive accomplishment.
Next week's interesting matches:
Army @ (7) Michigan (Army was legit good last year, don't expect them to be a walkover in Ann Arbor)
(12) Texas A&M @ (1) Clemson (definitely tougher than Clemson is used to playing at this time in the season, should be some fun)
(6) LSU @ (9) Texas (okay...let's see it)
Games I saw some of
(11) Oregon 21-27 (16) Auburn
I was impressed by Oregon's QB and Auburn's true-freshman QB, too. Oregon was rolling pretty well at first, then turned timid late and stop making plays; Auburn laid low til halftime, then pulled it out in the 2nd half. I was more impressed with both teams than I thought I would be. Comparing this to last year's Auburn-Washington match-up (when both squads were ranked in the top ten), I suspect Auburn and Oregon are both better this season than that game showed off. I've love to see Auburn give Bama a game (I guess it's possible) and I can see Oregon winning the Pac-12.
Northwestern 7-17 (25) Stanford
Kept expecting more out of Northwestern's QB, he had moments but didn't get it done down the stretch. As for Stanford, they look like a 'nice' team, no major mistakes but no overachieving either, I can see them being in the #20-#30 range pretty much all season.
Houston 31- 49 (4) Oklahoma
Wow, OU's offense is gonna be top notch this year, but...hmmmm...that defense kinda gave up some points to a nothing-special looking Houston squad. Its easy to see the Heisman Hurts talk is ready to take off but I'm not sure that D is gonna get them to the playoff--and come on, man, Oklahoma-Alabama is a game we've got to see!
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Clemson, (2) Alabama, (3) Georgia, (4) Oklahoma, (5) Ohio State, (6) Louisiana State, (7) Michigan, (9) Notre Dame, (10) Texas, (12) Texas A&M, (13) Washington, (14) Utah, (15) Penn State, (16) Auburn, (17) Central Florida, (18) Michigan State, (19) Wisconsin, (20) Iowa, (22) Syracuse, (23) Washington State, (24) Nebraska, (25) Stanford
Won but did not impress
(8) Florida. Miami didn't look all that good and probably should've beaten Florida. Coming in I thought Florida would be in good position to beat Georgia this year, but after this game I no longer see that as a possibility. We'll see, perhaps we'll look back on this as a great save rather than a near giveaway.
(21) Iowa State. Northern Iowa is a pretty good squad and the Cyclones did pull their shit together and avoid disaster, but you'd like to see a little more assured confidence in a home opener. Iowa State has a knack for giving really good teams a scare and I guess they're the kinda squad that gives up scares to lesser teams, too.
Bad beat
(11) Oregon. I suspect they're good, man, decent chance we look back on this L to Auburn as an impressive accomplishment.
Next week's interesting matches:
Army @ (7) Michigan (Army was legit good last year, don't expect them to be a walkover in Ann Arbor)
(12) Texas A&M @ (1) Clemson (definitely tougher than Clemson is used to playing at this time in the season, should be some fun)
(6) LSU @ (9) Texas (okay...let's see it)
Friday, August 30, 2019
US Open Final (Atlanta United 2-1 Minnesota United)
Dang, nice deep cut of the final game (of which I saw none). Felt like Minnesota had a lot of chances in the 2nd half and that Brad Guzan finished really strong. Atlanta are now the League champs and Cup champs, nice.
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