2025-26 NCAA Football (Playoffs 1st round)

(9) Alabama @ (8) Oklahoma (+1.5; O/U 40.5)

Is Bama gonna bounce back from their abysmal showing in the SEC final? Is Bama gonna bounce back from their abysmal showing against Oklahoma just a few weeks ago? I think they will. I think Bama is better, I think Oklahoma got lucky against Bama earlier and I think Bama will grasp this opportunity to advance. I'll take Bama and the under.

(10) Miami @ (7) Texas A&M (-3.5; 51.5)

This is a good match. A&M has been good all year long, bad misstep at Texas but otherwise solid on both sides of the ball; Miami had two inexplicably bad L's (worse than Notre Dame's 2 L's, incidentally) but otherwise looked like a formidable side. This match could go either way, I have no idea what to expect. But I will take the dog to keep it close. Miami and the under.

(11) Tulane @ (6) Mississippi (-17.5; 56.5)

Hey, Tulane, congrats on being invited to bask in the ACC's incompetence! Don't think this is gonna last long, though, I think Ole Miss is gonna score and score and score. Enjoy it while it lasts, Green Wave. I'll take Ole Miss and the over.

(12) James Madison @ (5) Oregon (-21.5; 50.5)

James Madison hasn't had this much buzz since the War of 1812, long before Oregon was a state. This, too, won't last long. Oregon is gonna run JMU out of the stadium. I got Oregon and the over. 

2025 NCAA Football (Week 16)

Last week's championship results:

(24) North Texas 21-34 (20) Tulane

In and out of this game, looked like Tulane had it handled by halftime--is it notable that Tulane got outscored in the 2nd half?

Troy 14-31 (25) James Madison

Saw none of this game, feels like James Madison struggled, didn't seal the W til the 4th quarter. Oh well, because of the ACC's utter incompetence, they'll be sitting at the adult table this Xmas. 

(2) Indiana 13-10 (1) Ohio State

Wow, Indiana was the better team from beginning to end and I...don't know how to process that. Until last season Indiana football had never--NEVER--been more than a mild surprise once a decade or so. But they are the for real #1 team in America right now with a hot coach, a lovable QB, a solid receiving corps and a defense that just fustigated the mighty mighty Buckeyes. I'm agog...yup, agog....pure non-stop agog over here. Their only worry is that they now take on Ohio State's preoccupation about their remaining opponents. I wondered how good the Buckeyes really were, but that question wasn't so much answered as transferred to Indiana. So can the big bad SEC also-rans hang with these Big 10 bruisers? Honestly, I have no idea.

(3) Georgia 28-7 (9) Alabama

Bama just never got any offense going. UGA was good but I thought it was Bama's inabilities that were the larger factor in this match. UGA is really good, I have no second thoughts about their brilliance. But Bama was so bad in this game--they can't really be this bad. So did UGA finally solve their Bama problem? Or is Bama just not that good? Or did Bama just have a bad day? My gut feeling is the third: Bama is better than this, they just didn't show up for this match. Voters apparently agreed because Bama (and their 3 L's) were invited to keep going and I'm curious to see how they do. I think Bama is really good and they just whiffed in this match and are lucky to be getting a second chance. 

(11) Brigham Young 7-34 (4) Texas Tech

The BYU (and Utah, too, for that matter) haters got their wish in the form of another drubbing at the hands of Texas Tech. These two L's to Tech are used as evidence that the BYU offense was embarrassingly awful and they've been overrated all season long; but I must counter that outside of these games against Tech, BYU comfortably handled everyone else they played and I'm not sure what else could be expected of them. Hey, man, Texas Tech is legit good! That offense can move the ball and that pass rush is cold blooded, I can't help thinking that their two drubbings of BYU are arguably their best games of the year and if we're devaluing BYU. that only serves to devalue Texas Tech.  So I'm going the opposite route: I think BYU is pretty good and Tech's mastery of them shows how really really good Tech is. 

Duke 27-20 (OT) (17) Virginia

I saw none of this game and I'm convinced no one else did either. The fact that the ACC ended up with these two in their final just shows that the ACC doesn't deserve to have nice things. 

This leaves us next weekend with an opening round of:

(9) Alabama @ (8) Oklahoma (+1.5; O/U 40.5)

(10) Miami @ (7) Texas A&M (-3.5; 51.5)

(11) Tulane @ (6) Mississippi (-17.5; 56.5)

(12) James Madison @ (5) Oregon (-21.5; 50.5)

The controversies: Because the ACC screwed up their championship, it meant that there would be 2 small conferences teams (Tulane, James Madison) instead of just one (which we all agree is 1 too many). Subsequently, the fight between Notre Dame and Miami ended up with the Hurricanes advancing because they beat Notre Dame head to head (and that has to matter!). Personally I would've taken Notre Dame over Miami (*), becasue Notre Dames 2 losses (A&M and Miami, who meet next week) are better than Miami's 2 losses (Louisville, SMU)--and that has to matter!

My final top 12 of this season:

1) Indiana (I can't believe what I just typed)

2) Georgia

3) Ohio State

4) Texas Tech

5) Mississippi

6) Oregon

7) Alabama

8) Texas A&M

9) Notre Dame

10) Brigham Young

11) Vanderbilt 

12) Miami

(*) And I would've taken Vanderbilt over Notre Dame or Miami or Oklahoma. Yeah, Vandy was really fucking good this year.

2025 NCAA Football (Week 14)

Top 25 (*)

Handled their business

(1) Ohio State, (2) Indiana, (4) Georgia, (5) Texas Tech, (6) Oregon, (7) Mississippi, (9) Notre Dame, (10) Alabama, (11) Brigham Young, (12) Miami, (13) Utah, (14) Vanderbilt, (16) Texas, (17) Southern Cal, (18) Virginia, (24) Tulane, (25) Arizona

Won but did not impress

(8) Oklahoma (Okay, I'll be honest: I'm not in on the Sooners this year; I want to like the QB (meh), I want to like the pass rush (nice but that D is not that great), I want to be impressed with their W's (Alabama and Texas are nice wins, right?); but farting around with an LSU squad that dropped dead a month ago is not so impressive; the argument is that they haven't played their best game yet....but....are we sure about that? I don't think this team is that good)

Bad beat

(15) Michigan (yeah they had a 4-game winning streak on the Buckeyes, but half of those wins were fluky and no one expected them to keep it going; Michigan was nice this year but not top of the table)

(19) Tennessee (Ugh! Getting smoked at home by Vandy doesn't happen often at Rocky Top, but this wasn't a bad season for the Vols, not one of their best but they were in the mix late, played some important games and have room to build for next year--and they better! Getting smoked by Vandy multiple years in a row isn't how Knoxvillians want to live)

(22) Pittsburgh (meh, the Panthers never impressed all season long, they got the sneak attack on Georgia Tech, but they were only marginally more interesting; I wasn't expecting Pitt to put up much against Miami on a mission)

(23) Georgia Tech (meh, I wasn't expecting them to upset UGA, the Yellow Jackets had a nice season but keeping the Bulldogs from destroying them was a pretty good showing, I thought)

Not so good

(3) Texas A&M (I like A&M, they're probably riding higher than they ought to, but they've got to go to Austin and get the W; still in the tourney but they missed out on the SEC championship and an even higher seed in the tourney, which they probably need)

(20) Arizona State (I dunno, I was never in on Arizona State this year but losing at home to in-state rivals is not a good way to go out under any circumstances)

(21) Southern Methodist (The Mustangs have had a nice season, finishing with a W at Cal would've made for a much better season; oh well, they weren't making the ACC final or the big tourney either way, so guess it doesn't matter really)

Next week's championship matches

(AAC) North Texas - (24) Tulane

(Big 12) (11) Brigham Young - (5) Texas Tech

(SEC) (4) Georgia - (10) Alabama

(Big 10) (2) Indiana - (1) Ohio State

(ACC) Duke - (18) Virginia

My top 12 (this week):

(1) Ohio State (the Buckeyes are having one of those dangerous seasons: they're so much better than everyone else that it's hard to tell how good they actually are; there are no cream puffs left on the schedule, so can OSU keep it up against stiffer and stiffer competition? (My guess is they can, but we'll see))

(2) Indiana (Indiana's W at Oregon is arguably the single most impressive W of the season; the Big 10 championship is a fascinating test for the Hoosiers; no pressure, really, they're still in even with an L to Ohio State)

(3) Georgia (not as good as recent UGA vintages but a solid, sharp team that can hang with anyone; they don't have the D this year but I think the offense is better than ya think; they need a strong showing against Bama to secure seeding in the tourney)

(4) Mississippi (I have Ole Miss higher than most because I think their D-line is really really good and they can score with anyone--even without Coach Kiffin (I don't understand how you walk away from a championship run....); I like this team, I think they're really good and getting forsaken by the coach is an extra chip on the shoulder for them)

(5) Oregon (classic Oregon: fast fast fast all over the field, they're never really out of a game; not the top level playmakers but pretty good players all over the place, this team is capable of dialing it up to the competition, too, they're going to be a tough out)

(6) Texas Tech (man these guys just never stop scoring and the D is pretty good, too; they're gonna be a tough out)

(7) Alabama (Bama is the jekyll and hyde team: their best is good enough to beat anyone anywhere, but when their pass rush disappears or the passing game stalls, they can get overtaken with a quickness; (if they beat UGA, do they jump up to a top 4 seed?); I think Bama is the real deal)

(8) Texas A&M (like 'em, don't love 'em; I feel like they've been overachieving all year long, feels like its catching up to them; the QB is nice (not great), the defense is nice (not great), the coaching staff....; they won't go quietly, but I don't think they last long)

(9) Notre Dame (if they can score, they can hang; if their offense stalls, I don't think they get past anyone above them)

(10) Brigham Young (the D is solid, the offense is nice; they'll need some luck but I think they're capable of a solid game against a better opponent and that alone can move them forward)

(11) Vanderbilt (Vandy will go out swinging and I like their chances of sneaking a knockout blow on a big boy not expecting much; Vandy plays smart, they don't make mistakes, you have to play them hard for 60 minutes to get the W--that's why I'd put Vandy in the tourney!)

(12) Miami (I guess most folks would put them comfortably in the top 12 but I think Vandy's W's are more impressive and their L's are, too! If Miami had just handled their business against Louisville and SMU, there would be no debate....but they didn't and I think Vandy had a better season; that said, if Texas Tech destroys BYU and UGA dismantles Alabama, I can see Miami and perhaps Vandy, too, both sneaking in to the tourney--where I would give Miami a puncher's chance against a team that thinks they can coast)

(13) Oklahoma (unless the QB becomes as good as everyone wants him to be, I just don't see the Sooners beating anybody; I don't think they deserve a shot ahead of Miami or Vandy or even a 2-loss BYU or 3-loss Alabama; I'm telling ya, man: OU ain't all that)

(*) I dunno, I just got lazy this fall. Watched a ton of NCAA football--as much as ever--just didn't get all bunged up about recording my thoughts this season. But I'm back at it.