2024-25 NBA Playoffs (1st round after 4 games)

East

Cavs 124-87 Heat

Cavs 138-83 Heat

Oof! The Cavs are just good, man, the Heat had no chance. I kinda like the Heat's personnel but without a full time playmaker, they've got no straw stirring the drink, so the reasonably talented roster gets no service and can't get anything going. This whole series was a shellacking, a reminder that #1 in the East is waaaaaay better than the play-in teams. The Cavs are relaxing before the Pacers come a-callin'.

Celtics 93-95 Magic 

Celtics 107-98 Magic

The Magic don't have enough scoring to hang in general and without Mo Wagner and Jalen Suggs they don't have the depth on defense either. The Celtics do occasionally fall asleep (the great Roger Federer in his prime used to do that, he won a hell of a lot more than he lost), but the Magic are probably not gonna get another chance to take advantage of that quirk. The Magic can look forward to the fact that their youth is still getting better rather than just older, playoff experience builds calluses. The Celtics are warming up for Knicks, I reckon. 

Knicks 118-116 Pistons 

Knicks 94-93 Pistons

Yeah, I still don't buy the Knicks, but clearly with a 3-1 lead, it's hard to imagine they lose three straight. The Pistons, to my mind, bungled away Games One and Three and fell prey to a late KAT attack (a coupla big 3's down the stretch), but I still think they're the better team. Though he has hardly been consistent, Cade Cunningham has balled out, it is clear that this is his team and I think he's been the best player in this series. I still find the Knicks remarkably underwhelming but I can't see them blowing a 3-1 lead, though I can see the Pistons making them work for it, so there's still some fireworks ahead.

Pacers 101-117 Bucks 

Pacers 129-103 Bucks 

The Bucks had one balls-to-the-wall half (2nd half of Game Three) in them to steal a W, but once Dame went down (Achilles' *sigh*) in Game Four that was the end of any lingering day dream of the Bucks rising up. Yeesh, looking ahead: well, Dame's out for next year, they moved on from Middleton and now they're stuck with Kuzma, probably time for Brook Lopez to retire and what do they have left? Oh my, the cupboard is pretty dang bare. (I'm already dreading the forced Giannis trade talk the chatterers will be forcing on us this summer) The Pacers are the one team in the East that can (maybe) hang with the Cavs and Celtics, so just as well that they're moving on sooner rather than later. I presume they will finish in 5.

West

Thunder 114-108 Grizzlies 

Thunder 117-115 Grizzlies

Ah, man, Ja Morant was still trying to act like the Grizz could've won if only.... dude, it has been a long year, spend a coupla weeks in Cabo, then get back to it and get ready for next year, this year is over and it's just as well, Grizz fans. The Thunder are still killing people, making them play in the 1st round was probably just a waste of time.

Rockets 93-104 Warriors 

Rockets 106-109 Warriors

I'm getting old, but in a backwards way? I prefer youth to the way it used to be. I'm ready for the Rockets to make some noise, instead I'm stuck here pretending like the Warriors still have something in the tank....honestly, it makes my head hurt. Draymond, Steph and Jimmy are expending 110% effort just to fend off a bunch of punks that have never done anything in this league and frankly they're still just getting lucky. They think their old timey savvy is gonna carry them and that shit might work on the Rockets but I don't see it working on anyone else. The Rockets haven't yet shown the maturity to finish off their elders (they keep falling for Draymond's head games) and their offense dries up from time to time, but the Rockets were better than the Warriors all season long and will be better than them next season, too. But for now the oldheads are still bullshitting their way through life and, sorry Rockets, it'll be another year before you get invited to the real party. (That said, I like the Rockets to win Game Five and wouldn't be shocked if they won Game Six--the longer this series goes on, the more miles those old legs have to run, the faster they'll crash out when they reach their limit)

Lakers 104-116 Wolves 

Lakers 113-116 Wolves 

The Wolves managed to take the 3-1 lead by reminding everyone that the Lakers are really just a nice team for now (and their "now" probably would've been better with Anthony Davis), but plan on being a for-real team next year. The Wolves have got no time to lose, so they're balling out as best they can. I think the Wolves are better and with a 3-1 lead I think we can pencil them through to the next round, but I said Lakers in 7 for a reason: they're wily vets and they know how to....get by. Hard to imagine the Wolves don't finish them off soon but now that we've reached the edge, feels like its time to start worrying about the Lakers again. Meh, I'll take Wolves in 5.

Nuggets 83-117 Clippers

Nuggets 101-99 Clippers 

I still believe the Clippers are the better team, they have the better offense, the better defense, the better coach and the better depth. But the Nuggets have a great home court and the greatest player in the world, so its still a series when maybe it should already be over. Okay, I'll stick with the same ol' thing: the Clippers are the better team and at their best Harden and Kawhi make a strangely effective 2-headed monster; that said, their 2-heads aren't exactly crunch time heroes and Jokic is still the best in the world. For now, still the most fun left in this series, but I still gotta lean Clippers in 6.

2024-25 NBA Playoffs (1st round after 2 games)

East

(1) Heat 100-121 Cavs

(2) Heat 112-121 Cavs (didn't watch)

The Cavs are just better than the Heat. I like this Heat roster, I think they'll be much better next year as the new looks coalesces and the Jimmy Butler-tantrums fade into the past. But for now, they're just not as good as the Cavs. I'll take the Heat to win one in Miami. Cavs in 5.

(1) Magic 86-103 Celtics

(2) Magic 100-109 Celtics

The Magic have no offense. Tough squad, a lot of ballers, they play hard and I like the general composition of the roster, but, man, they got nobody to get buckets. I'd give the Magic a gentleman's sweep but I just don't think the scoring to take even a single game.  

If I were the Celtics, I'd give Tatum another night off in Game Three and KP the night off in Game Four. Their offense might scuffle a bit, but I doubt the Magic would outscore them in either contest. Celtics in 4.

(1) Pistons 112-123 Knicks

(2) Pistons 100-94 Knicks

The Pistons had Game One in hand when they went into a monumental collapse, the Knicks had a 21-0 run and stole the game. Knicks fan rejoice, NBA nerds comforted that their presumed outcome came to pass but...let's be honest, folks: the Pistons were the better team and the collapse was their own doing. If the Knicks think they deserved to win, I don't think I agree. And if they think they are the better team, I'm positive I don't agree.

Game Two was much closer to what I think this series is and will be: the Pistons controlled the tempo, scored at will, flustered the Knicks at the defensive end and basically showed how smoke-and-mirrors the Knicks have been all year long. The Pistons are getting hot at the right time and I think the Knicks are riding for a fall.

Its still even enough that it'll go back and forth for a while, but the Pistons are the better team, the more complete team, the team that knows who they are, the team on the rise. Knicks fans are staring down the barrel of a major disappointment. It's happening. Pistons in 6.

(1) Bucks 98-117 Pacers

(2) Bucks 115-123 Pacers (didn't watch)

The Pacers are better than the Bucks. They just are. They're deeper, they're more variable, they've got more scoring, probably even better defense. The Bucks have Giannis but they don't have much else. I like the Bucks to steal one, maybe even two back in Milwaukee--and even then, only if Dame Lillard can really be big time. I'll take Pacers in 5.

West

(1) Grizzlies 80-131 Thunder

(2) Grizzlies 99-118 Thunder

Jeez, that first game was depressing. Out of respect for the Grizzlies organization, I think I'll be skipping the rest of this series. The Thunder are really good, the Grizzlies are in disarray--there's no way this goes 5 games! Thunder in 4 (do we really need two more of these games? I'm ready to say Thunder in 2). 

(1) Warriors 95-85 Rockets

(2) Warriors 94-109 Rockets

Game One of this series was the only one that gave me pause. I thought the Rockets were primed to stomp the shit out of the Warriors, but instantly I saw that these youngsters probably aren't ready to play cohesive winning ball over a bunch of badass oldheads just yet. These two played a coupla weeks ago and the Rockets tooled them, made me feel that the Rockets truly were the better team, the better athletes, the harder workers and that their 2nd place finish was not a fluke. But all it takes is one game of Steph Curry calmly controlling the action and getting his shots while Rockets go whizzing past to make me reevaluate what I thought I knew. 

Adding Jimmy Butler gave the Warriors a new life, a new purpose, and that's super. But I wasn't convinced that they were ready to win it all (of that I am still not convinced). The Rockets are upstarts but they're long, athletic and they bust their asses, and those qualities are still much more impressive to me. They don't have the savvy to simply dismiss a pack of crafty veterans but if Draymond thinks riling up their youth is a good strategy....oh, I don't think agree.

My initial thought was Rockets in 5: they'd dominate the first two games, fall asleep back in SF, then pull it together again and just athleticism their way to two more quick wins. I still think the Rockets win this and the plan is still in place, but I think the Warriors are more savvy than I gave them credit for and are going to will this Rockets squad into a smarter crew (for example, I think the Rockets will be smart enough to not let this go a Game Seven). I'll say Rockets in 6.

(1) Wolves 117-95 Lakers

(2) Wolves 85-94 Lakers

My initial thought was that these two are actually pretty evenly matched, this will be a tussle of a series and I was gonna go with Lakers in 7 because...well, they're the Lakers, they have all the luck that Uncle Sam can muster.

I think I still that. The Lakers with 2 months of Luka and just a single full season with Coach Reddick haven't matured just yet, they've got a lot of talent but they're still rough around the edges and they haven't congealed around Luka enough to be truly dangerous (yet). It is possible that they grow into their dangerous selves over the next few weeks but I suspect it'll take a full year for them to be truly ready (so....next year, Laker fans). 

As for the Wolves, they're good but strangely disappointing and yet it feels like they're coming together at the right time. The way they dominated Game One was intriguing and the weird adjustments the Lakers made to take back Game Two suggest that the Lakers know the Wolves are better. But the Wolves were confused by weird zone defense looks and probably a little satisfied with the victory in Game One, so they let Game Two get away from them.

I do think the Wolves are the better team and they should win. But I'll stick with Lakers in 7 because they're the Lakers and they'll figure it out. 

(1) Clippers 110-112 (OT) Nuggets

(2) Clippers 105-102 Nuggets

I thought the Nuggets got lucky in Game One. They were able to sneak back into it late by forcing James Harden to be a closer (he is not a closer) and reminding Kawhi that he is rusty and not ready to be a closer yet either. And then they got lucky knocking down shots in OT. But it was clear to me: the Clippers are the better team and should be up 2-0 heading back to LA.

Worth repeating, though: Harden is not a closer and Kawhi is probably not ready to do much swashbuckling in the 4th quarter. The key for the Clippers is to build big leads and hold them. Frankly, I think they can and I think they will. Great as Jokic is, he can't do it alone and increasingly he looks more and more alone out there. 

Nuggets in 6

2024-25 NBA Regular Season Awards

MVP

Last year I developed a new algorithm for ranking NBA performances. I ended up with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) as MVP and that felt right to me, so I thought I'd run back the method this year, too. Well, not so good. 

My first calculation ended up with Shai winning again this year. Okay, not controversial. But this year the method put Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) 3rd behind James Harden (Clippers). I did not see this coming, it kinda freaked me out as Harden is a player I have barely paid attention to this season (though, to be fair, I didn't watch nearly as much NBA as I usually do). 

So I did a second calculation and now Shai had slipped to 2nd place...behind Anthony Edwards (Wolves)! So in a year when the debate was between Shai (Stefan Edberg-level elegance and awesomness leading his batch of youngsters to easily the best record in the league) or Jokic (dragging his band of sad sacks into the playoffs like Homer Simpson with his Stone of Shame), but even though the Clippers finished strong, I never thought twice about Harden or Edwards for MVP. But what are the algorithms for except to to find the best players? Last year the algorithm told me that Shai, Jokic and Giannis were the three best players and I heartily agreed. This year, the algorithms spit out something I did not expect or understand and it made me question the science (heaven forbid!). 

So I did what all good scientists do: I kept changing the criteria until I got what I wanted:

MVP: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

The rest of my top five: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Lebron James (Lakers), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics). (Okay, well, Lebron kinda came out of nowhere but he is still a hell of a player) 

On my own I probably would've taken Shai over Jokic, because I think Shai has been exciting, thorough and completely in charge from day one on a team that just murdered people all year long. For the last several years I thought Jokic and Giannis were the two best players in the league, I think it is safe to say that SGA has joined them. I was never so committed to any of the others that the snoots wanted to put with Jokic and Giannis (Embiid, for example, was never better than top 3--if that!--IMHO), but with Shai we have a master PG, just blossoming into his prime, that gets W's in addition to buckets; meanwhile we see the steady erosion of the supporting casts around Jokic and Giannis.  

But the numbers made it clear to me that Jokic has virtually no help whereas SGA has a great roster--arguably the top-to-bottom best in the league. But another stat really dumbfounded me: Jokic led the league with 34 triple-doubles in 70 games, just about half of his games played were triple-doubles, while SGA had zero. Now, okay, SGA has better teammates, there's more passing and scoring going on than just SGA, so it makes sense that he wouldn't get a lot of triple-doubles because he just doesn't need to the way Jokic needs to carry his team; but....damn, man, SGA didn't have one? In 76 games he didn't have one triple-double! On one of the greatest scoring teams of all time and a great defensive team, he didn't have one single game where he hit double digits in three different stats? His teammate Jaylin Williams, had 3 triple-doubles, but SGA had none? Somehow this only seems possible if he were on a team that absolutely did not need their best player to ever go truly above himself in any single game--while Jokic had to do that in almost half of his games. I dunno, man, something about the fact that SGA had fewer triple-doubles this season than Bilal Coulibaly (Wizards) or Jalen Pickett (Nuggets), automatically makes me feel good about putting Jokic ahead of him.  

But let's remember: according to my method of analysis James Harden, Lebron James and Anthony Edwards are clear candidates for 1st Team All-NBA, if not for MVP. Good players, but the numbers put them higher than my own personal eyeballs did, which makes me reconsider the importance of numbers. Oh well. (Science is lumpier than Science itself realizes)  

All-NBA

1st

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Lebron James (Lakers), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics)

2nd

Cade Cunningham (Pistons), James Harden (Clippers), Tyrese Halliburton (Pacers), Anthony Edwards (Wolves), Alperen Sengun (Rockets)

3rd

Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks), Tyler Herro (Heat), Ivica Zubac (Clippers), Devin Booker (Suns), Donovan Mitchell (Cavs)

All-Rookie

1st

Stephon Castle (Spurs), Bub Carrington (Wizards), Alex Sarr (Wizards), Zacharrie Risacher (Hawks), Jaylen Wells (Grizzlies)

2nd 

Yves Missi (Pelicans), Isaih Collier (Jazz), Kyshawn George (Wizards), Kyle Filipowski (Jazz), Matas Buzelis (Bulls)

Looks good to me. Castle is nice, a good strong supporting cast member for the Wemby Show. Carrington, Sarr are in the right spot: Bub has game and is fun to watch, Sarr is a nice all-around big man, both in a spot where expectations are low, so they're free to just play. I like Risacher, doesn't look like a super star but he's kinda good at everything, should get better at a lot of stuff, might could be a for-real #2 for a for-real star (is that Trae Young? Could it be, say, Zion?). Wells is a baller, get well soon. Missi is a good rim protecting rebounder, a nice player. Collier, Georgie and Filipowski should have earned more playing time, we'll see what they become. I kinda love Buzelis, that guy'll start next year.   

And a few other rooks I liked: Dalton Knecht (Lakers), Zach Edey (Grizzlies), Ke'lel Ware (Heat), Donovan Clingan (Blazers), and I'm still convinced Reed Sheppard (Rockets) will be good, if he's ever allowed to play, and Ron Holland (Pistons) was one of my favorites to watch all year long. 

That said, for ROY, I'm going off the board:

Rookie of the Year: Jared McCain (Sixers)

ROY for me is a forward-looking award (who is the best looking prospect going forward) not a backward-looking award (who had the BEST rookie season). McCain only played 23 games but in his limited look, he struck me as the highest potential growth player going forward. He was in control of the ball and had major league-level athletic prowess; in short, he has the physical tools to survive and the talent to be really good. I can't/won't make the argument he had the best rookie season, obviously he didn't, but who cares? Which rookie do I want next year? I'd take McCain. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Yeah, this happens every year: I use basic counting metrics for my end of year awards and clearly in DPOY, these metrics are too basic to be useful. Its going to drive the nerds crazy but--and not for the first time--I'll go with Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) for Defensive Player of the Year. 

Next up: Amen Thompson (Rockets), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

As a life long baseball lover, I've long known that defensive stats just don't paint the proper picture. Offense is a clear accounting, but defense (re: the counter of offense) is much more elusive to capture, more useful as a team stat rather than an individual, and the great defenders are doing more than the statistics can calculate. But I'm still dubious of more complicated metrics, I know I'm supposed to sit in awe of number nerds but numbers in and of themselves aren't meaningful at all; if you start giving too much narrative necessity to numbers then you're just fooling yourself. 

Okay, so I suck at DPOY.  I had James Harden (Clippers) 4th!

6th Man: Naz Reid (Wolves)

My incredibly unscientific 1st draft left me with: Naz Reid (Wolves) as the strong 1st place. Peyton Pritchard (Celtics), Malik Beasley (Pistons) next, with Spencer Dinwiddie (Mavs) and Keldon Johnson (Spurs) rounding out the top 5. (*) Basically no matter how you slice it, Reid, Pritchard and Beasley were the top three in pretty much every stat, so pick your favorite. I think there are good arguments for all three and no argument that really means more than any other. All three were strong 2nd string contributors to good teams, all three had their role within their squad. So I'll go with Reid, just because nobody else is.

Most Improved

I've never done this one in the past because it seems rather than just picking one, there should be multiple winners based on draft class or even by age. I hadn't thought to even do this (I normally don't), but I thought as I peruse the end of year stats, some candidates might emerge. But I should say: I don't feel like going back to last year's stats so the ones that stand out to me will simply be dudes that surprised me with their performance, whether outsized or idiosyncratic, rather than who actually showed some statistical improvement.  We'll see.

James Harden (Clippers). Yup, he was waaaaaay better than I was expecting because I wasn't expecting much. But they were better than I thought they'd be and looking kinda dangerous going into the post-season and Harden's old timey efficiency is the main reason. A damn good season for Harden.

Tyler Herro (Heat). Basically my algorithm susses out the dudes that played a lot and actually did stuff while they played. And Herro played a lot and did a lot for his team. And though the Heat were frustrating this year (as they usually are), that doesn't hide the fact that Herro was pretty damn good this year. He scored efficiently, made plays for others, played good D and just generally handled himself well out there. I always liked Herro but I think he's become even better than I thought he'd be and I'm kinda curious to see what a full year of that current lineup could look like (they could be hitting an unusual number of "up" years from their roster, we'll see next year).

Jalen Williams (Thunder). Williams was awesome last year, surely a Most Improved candidate in 2024. But he successfully stepped up his game for an entire season and even though we knew he was good last year, to stay at that level for another entire year is fucking impressive. To be the reliable 2nd banana on the best team in the league is frankly even better than what he suggested in the past.

Amen Thompson (Rockets). Defensive monster! I knew he'd be good, but just watching him actually bust out is so much better than our collective imagination. I hate to be that guy: oh my, he is a disaster on offense! Already one of the greatest defenders I've ever seen--he's Gary Payton and Kevin Garnett put together!--and though he's got pretty good skills with the ball, he has no instinct for scoring, for attacking the basket or for maximizing his teammates, no feel for the offensive side of the ball. In the game of chess, he is demolition derby. Still, though, that defense...the kid is a monster.  

Christian Braun (Nuggets). Top 20 in the league in Minutes Played and of the 143 players (that I consider) eligible for awards, Braun was 6th in Effective Field Goal Percentage. Now, I'll admit I have no idea what that metric is or how it works, but it does suggest (hopefully) that he was "effective" at scoring when asked. He plays more than I thought he would and he's clearly not a disappointment and, well, that's actually kinda better than I thought he'd be. Obviously playing next to Jokic might make anyone look like a Hall of Famer, but I suspect if you suck at basketball, Jokic will make that known with a quickness, so I believe in Braun.

Some names that I passed over: Tyrese Halliburton (Pacers), Ivica Zubac (Clippers), Alperen Sengun (Rockets) busted out last year for me, so I'm not surprised by their success, those dudes are fucking good. Similarly with Cade Cunningham (Pistons), I never lost faith with his past injuries or his crappy teams and coaches, I knew Cade was gonna be good the whole time, not surprised that he's top 15.

Coach of the Year

Coach: Ime Udoka (Rockets)

Next up: Rick Atkinson (Cavs), Mark Daigneault (Thunder), Joe Mazzulo (Celtics)

The Cavs and Celtics were easily the two best teams in the East. The Thunder and Rockets were clearly the two best teams in the West, so those are your top four candidates. The arguments are basically: Mazzulo had to hold last year's excellence in place, Daigneault had to improve on last year's excellence, Atkinson had to whip a good team into a really good team, Udoka had to take a bunch of youngsters and keep them locked in all year. All four have their merits, I just decided Udoka's task was greater than the rest. 

JB Bickerstaff (Pistons) and JJ Reddick (Lakers), I suppose will get some votes, too. But really those top four ought to be everyone's top four. 

Executive of the Year

Obviously the Lakers bringing in Luka Doncic from the Mavs for about half of what he's worth is the best trade anyone has pulled off in eons. But that's a future trade, as for now getting an injured Luka for an all-star level Anthony Davis, does not make the Lakers immediately better. I have no doubt that Luka will be good and the team will figure out how best to serve him but that probably won't result in a deep playoff this season (next season, watch out!). 

My favorite trade of the season was the Spurs getting De'Aaron Fox for a raft of 1st round picks (which aren't really necessary now that they can pair Fox with Wemby for the next several years) and their two worst contracts (Tre Jones and Zach Collins). But, that, too, is a trade for the future, as they put Wemby and Fox out to pasture for the season almost as soon as this trade went down. Again, not so much for this season--but next season, watch out! 

The Warriors bringing in Jimmy Butler revitalized their squad, but they gave up on Dennis Schroder (yeah, I have an irrational soft spot for the guy), Lindy Waters (yeah, a bench warmer, but is that his total worth?), Kyle Anderson (a handy vet to have come playoff time) and Andrew Wiggins (again, I have an irrational soft spot) and, I think, a 1st round pick and swapped 2nd round picks. Yeah, I get that Butler makes them better right now, but the "now" just keeps getting shorter for the Warriors and if this doesn't lead to deep playoff runs over the next 2-3 years then this roster is completely wrecked. I dunno, man, I'm not as big a fan of this deal or of the new-look Warriors as I feel like everybody else is. I think this is a high leverage move that leaves them with no draft capital, a bloated salary cap and super stars that will be long-since maxxed out before their deals mature. We'll see how deep they go this year...do we think this squad will go deeper next year? (Hint: I don't)

The Knicks turned their roster upside down since last year's playoff run to the 2nd round and all the moves seemed good on paper. But in reality, I can't help thinking that they were better off with Randle and DiVincenzo than Towns, they wildly overpaid for Mikael Bridges and Coach Thibs is (and always was!) the wrong coach for this team. In short, I'm just not as into this Knicks team as I feel like I'm supposed to be and I don't see great playoff success awaiting this team. So can I say their GM had a good year?

The Nuggets and Bucks just keep falling down around their central super stars. The Kings are on a treadmill of mediocrity, the Hawks and Bulls don't seem to get better no matter what they do. The Suns were arguably the dumpster fire of the year. The Jazz, Hornets and Wizards have settled into being allergic to success. The Pacers and Magic were both able to be pretty much the same as last year (with pretty much last year's rosters). The Rockets are almost choking to death on all their young talent (will Cam Whitmore or Reed Sheppard ever get to play?). Grizzlies have been a slow motion train wreck for a coupla seasons now. The Nets and Raptors were actually better than they wanted to be (as dubious achievement as there is in all of sports). The Wolves made big moves last summer that had to metabolize.So what front office had the best season? 

I'll go with Executive of the Year: Trent Redden (Clippers)

Since last May, they re-upped Tyronn Lue, a great move, as his feel the in game adjustments is as good as I think I've ever seen, truly in the top handful of coaches in the NBA, good to lock him down.  They low-balled Paul George, forcing him out of town--a great move! They signed Derrick Jones Jr (3yr/$30m), Nicolas Batum (2yr/$9.6m), re-upped James Harden (2yr/$70m), traded Russell Westbrook for Kris Dunn (who became the backbone of the Clippers defense), re-signed Ivica Zubac (3yr/$58.6m), swapped PJ Tucker and Mo Bamba for Patty Mills and Drew Eubanks (addition by subtraction), shipped out Terance Mann and Bones Hyland for Bogdan Bogdanovich and a raft of 2nd round picks, and they picked up Ben Simmons for peanuts to round out the playoff roster. 

Swapping Kevin Porter Jr straight up for Marchon Beauchamp feels like a missed opportunity but hardly a killer. Re-signing Terrence Mann might've been a mistake but they got Bogie and a bunch of 2nd rounders for him instead, so no harm done. Does letting BJ Boston walk away bite them later?

It feels like all of their moves worked this year and they quietly shimmied their way up to 5th in the West behind a resurgence from Kawhi and Harden. Bravo!

(*) Rest of 6th Man top 10: Scottie Pippen Jr (Grizzlies), Aaron Wiggins (Thunder), Nickaell Alexander-Waker (Wolves), Jonas Valanciunis (Wizards/Kings), Royce O'neale (Suns). As you can see the top 3 were way ahead of the rest of the pack.

2025 Champions League (Quarterfinals)

1st Leg

Bayern Munich 1-2 Inter Milan

Wow! I kept waiting for Bayern to take over the game and they just couldn't do it. Inter opened the scoring before halftime with a lovely goal from the top of the box (went with the right foot when it was set up for the left, keeper was froze) and that's when it really became a game. Bayern was able to tie it up late, but again they never established any real dominance of the attack, a puzzling performacne especially at home. And then Inter was able to steal it anyway with a late goal (a hockey goal: just fling it in front of the net, see what happens). Bayern stumbled badly last season as Leverkusen came out of nowhere to rule the Bundesliga, but it felt like the stars were re-aligned and Bayern was ready to make a deep run again. But, I dunno, man, they did not look better than Inter at any point in this match and even tying the score late felt like a desperate move--especially since they couldn't hold the draw. I haven't been blown away by Inter at any point in this tourney but Bayern looks out of sorts and going back home with a lead, I gotta think Inter is going to move on. 

Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid

Wow! Real Madrid doesn't get stunned like this very often, but Arsenal was the better team throughout, dominated possession, had many better scoring chances than Real. Arsenal got on the board with a beautiful direct kick from about 30 yards out--and then doubled the lead with a virtually identical direct kick later on. Then they added a third goal just to pour salt in the wound. I feel bad for the Real keeper, he actually made a number of great saves, but those two direct kicks were just out of reach and the final kick was a brilliant rip that he just couldn't get to. I expect Real to play furious in the return match--but I don't expect them to score 3 times! Gotta figure Arsenal is heading to the semifinals. 

Barcelona 4-0 Borussia Dortmund

Yeah...this was not good for Dortmund. Dortmund couldn't get any attack going at all, Barca dominated all phases of the game and just kept piling on the goals. Man, Yamal and Lewandowski up front feels like a cheat code, like young Magic hooking up with old Kareem. I'd be kinda surprised if Barca lost, even with as well as Arsenal is balling right now. 

Paris St. Germaine 3-1 Aston Villa

Yeah, I thought PSG was the better side throughout.  Aston Villa played a plucky match, took the lead before halftime--but gave it back just a few moments later.  PSG kinda crushed in the 2nd half, it feels like this is the real PSG, too.  

2nd Leg

Aston Villa 3-2 (agg 4-5) Paris St. Germaine

PSG scored right away putting a chill on this match, doubled the lead before halftime and it felt like the rout was on. Then an interesting thing happened: someone woke up Villa and they cooked PSG for the rest of the match but it didn't matter. PSG came out stong, then took the rest of the match off. Made for some furious action--fun game!--but once PSG took an insumountable lead, well, it was insurmountable. 

Borussia Dortmund 3-1 (agg 3-5) Barcelona

Dortmund finished a PK early on, then took a 2-0 lead right after halftime and it felt like we really had something going here. But then an unfortunate own-goal put Barca back in the driver's seat and even tacking on a late goal couldn't move the needle. Dortmund gave it their best but Barca's lead was too much to come back from.  

Inter Milan 2-2 (agg 4-3) Bayern Munich

Inter did virtually nothing in the 1st half of this game, Inter fans must've been pulling their hair out! Then Harry Kane tied up the aggregate just after halftime and it felt like perhaps the tide had turned for Bayern. But Inter took the lead right back, then piled on soon after and suddenly the match felt over. Even when Bayern scored again to get back within striking distance, it still felt like Inter had the game in hand. Inter was the better side in this matchup but Bayern had their moments--and Inter had plenty of shaky moments, too. I didn't come out of this with a great deal of faith in Milan so much as a feeling that Bayern is hollow and soulless right now. 

Real Madrid 1-2 (agg 1-5) Arsenal

Man, Arsenal is on fire. I don't believe they're the best team left, but they're playing as well as anyone in the world right now. Real played hard, attacked well, felt like the better team for stretches of the game, but Arsenal rode their big lead all through the 1st half and added to it right out of halftime. Don't see Real Madrid get toyed with very often but Arsenal controlled Real Madrid for 180 straight minutes. Don't mess with Arsenal.  

Semifinals

Arsenal - Paris St. Germaine

Arsenal is on fire right now, PSG is arguably the most all-round talented squad. My gut says PSG is the more complete team but my eyes tell me Arsenal is killing it right now. Frankly, it's a coin flip.

Barcelona - Inter Milan

I gotta go with Barca, their attack looks as good as anyone and, well, Inter has moments but I don't feel the sustain in their attack right now. Its gonna take a bigger-than-they've-given-so-far kinda effort and I supposed Inter can bring it, but I gotta go with Barcelona, I love that offense.  

2025 Masters

The Rory-coaster!

On Thursday, Justin Rose came out with a -7 and it felt like this was going to be a high (er, well, low) scoring Masters. The weather was set to be beautiful, the greens looked fast, felt like everyone was hitting the fairway and was gonna be getting birdies.  Scottie Scheffler and Ludvig Aberg (-4) were hovering but I had my eye on Bryson De Chambeau (-3) as one who looked ready to take off.

On Friday, Rose kinda faded (a piddly -1 for the day), but it felt like bad luck, I didn't give up on him.  Rory McIlroy (-6) was the man of the day and De Chambeau pitched in another -4. Xander Schauffle went -3 and (simply because he's the best in the world right now) felt like he was in the mix.  

On Saturday, Rory shot another -6 and took the commanding lead at -12. Rory has had his meltdowns at Augusta before, but this was the last one he needed to complete the career gand slam and everyone was waiting for either triumph and agony (*popcorn go munch*). De Chambeau had another -3, the only person to shoot under 70 on each of the first three days, quietly playing some damn good golf, it was set up for Bryson to be Rory's real competition.  Aberg bounced back from a disappointing Friday to finish the day at -6. Rose had a disappointing +2, but he was still in the pelaton. Patrick Reed quietly climbed the leader board, and like De Chambeau, playing solid. 

Coming into Sunday: Rory (-12), De Chambeau (-10), Reed, Rose, Lowry (-6), Scheffler, Day, Aberg (-5)

Obviously it was set up for De Chambeau to be the one to make the most of any mistakes Rory laid down. The rest of the pack felt too far behind, I thought Rose, Scheffler and Aberg would linger and maybe get a chance if a catrastrophe broke out, but I didn't have much faith in Reed, Lowry or Day.  

Rory blew it on the first hole! In Tyson-level quickness, De Chambeau has the lead and everyone senses the sky has already fallen. But, not me! I thought that Rory had made his mistake, gotten the yips out of his system and would cruise for the rest of the day. Sure enough, De Chambeau soon faltered, Rory took the lead back and was untouched for the next 10 or so holes. 

Then Rose made a run, Rory stumbled. Rory had a chance to win it on 18 but the putt just slid over the hole and everyone felt the nightmare was real as the two finished tied. But Rory birded the first OT hole and took it and the audience was relieved. The back-9 was riveting throughout: at first because it felt like Rory was going to master the Masters and then because it felt like Rose was gonna steal it. 

I was surprised how bad De Chambeau was--he was not the one I thought would totally yank it on Sunday. 

Reed quietly had a nice tournament (-9, 3rd place), Scheffler (-8, 4th place), too, didn't make a lot of noise but he was hanging around the whole time. 

And as can only happen at the Masters, Sungjae Im, killed it on Sunday, ending up finishing 5th and I don't recall watching him even for a second, not a single highlight. 

I love the Masters and this was the best in a while. I love watching dudes dominate and I love watching a demolition derby on Sunday, either way works for me. This was a mix of both: Rory and Rose killed it and yet neither were strong enough to hold back the uncertainty. A good one. 

2025 NCAA Final

Sweet Sixteen

Maryland 71-87 Florida

Not a shock. Maryland had some talent but I never thought they were a particularly cohesive crew. 

Arizona 93-100 Duke

Duke shot well, surprised the score was this close actually. 

Brigham Young 88-113 Alabama

I thought BYU had good upset potential in this game, but, man, Alabama shot the lights out early on and just kept the scoring too furious for BYU to keep up. If Alabama had played like this throughout, they would've won it all. 

Arkansas 83-85 (OT) Texas Tech

I didn't see this game but just watching the score tick by throughout, it feels like Arkansas worked pretty hard to lose this game. It even felt like they were gonna come back in OT and managed to gack it up anyway. Too bad, I really thought Arkansas had the array of talent needed to pull off some shockers. 

Michigan 65-78 Auburn

Michigan's offense was just too sludge-y to hang with Auburn.

Purdue 60-62 Houston

Purdue was the veteran squad, the defending runner-up, that everyone thought had upset potential. Houston is typically not an offenseive dynamo, indeed their strengths are similar to Purdue. I guess that's why this game went so deep. But Cougars got the W. 

Mississippi 70-73 Michigan State

Ole Miss was looking good early on, but they just couldn't sustain their offense and the Spartans slowly but surely took the lead and made it stand up.

Kentucky 65-78 Tennessee

UK was out of this game early, just couldn't get any offense going at all. The Vols were nice, certainly better, but the Cats had plenty of chances to get back in and just couldn't get buckets to hang. I was struck that all the curls, picks and movement that they employed so effectively against Illinois were not used here. Why not? Oh well. The Vols came to play and they played some rugged defense early on and established a clear lead early that they were able to ride out.  

Elite Eight

Texas Tech 79-84 Florida

Tech hung tough, put it on Florida but the Gators got buckets late and Walter Clayton was the hero. Good game, Tech was the better team for the most part but the Gators found another gear late and stole it. 

Alabama 65-85 Duke

Wow! I thought Alabama was one of the better teams this season and I thought they'd be a serious roadblock for Duke, but, man, Duke just pummeled them. Everyone was hitting shots and once the run began, the Tide got buried pronto and Duke cruised to the end. This was a towering performance by Duke--this is the moment where I just assumed Duke would win it all. 

Tennessee 50-69 Houston

Not surprised by the result, I figured Houston would get past whoever they faced here, but they suffocated the Vols early and this game was long over by halftime. The Vols were good this year, perhaps a little overhyped, and while I didn't think they'd win, I didn't figure they'd get stomped in this manner. A dominant performance by the Cougars.

Michigan State 64-70 Auburn

The Spartans put up a game effort but Auburn was better throughout and finished strong. Michigan State kept it close but I really felt like this game wanted to be a blowout. 

Final Four (all four #1 seeds for the first time since 2008; hardly any stunning upsets this year but it left the best of the best teams facing off at the end--turns out those are the best tourneys!)

Florida 79-73 Auburn

Auburn looked like the better team in the 1st half and built up a 12-point lead early in the 2nd half and it kinda felt like it was over. Then....Auburn did absolutely nothing from that point on and Florida was able to blast right through them. I thought Auburn was the single best team all season long (apologies to Duke, Houston and Florida) and the first 25 minutes or so of this game bore that out; but, then the scoring just completely stopped, Johni Broom never showed up, the hustle plays weren't effective any more and they spun their wheels badly down the stretch. Florida had been overcoming deficits all through the tourney, winning games late, so not a shock to see the Gators getting it done. But the Auburn collapse was so total, so complete that it made me wonder what I saw in them all year long.  

Houston 70-67 Duke

All year long Houston's MO was a team that just grinds opponents down with intense D, superior rebounding and a never-quit attitude. Duke had a nice lead at halftime and pretty much dominated the game for about 30 minutes. Then the Dukies went cold as ice and Houston just kept making plays. The final two minutes were a slow motion horror show for Duke fans as Houston just kept getting bucket after bucket, big steals, all the rebounds, a few lucky calls (*), and when the clock ran out, Houston had the lead. One of the most mystifying conclusions I've ever seen--but, then again, when Kentucky beat Duke early in the season, I remember being similarly shocked, since it never occurred to me that Duke was gonna lose. Duke was arguably the best team all year long but the ACC was so soft this year and it is worth noting that 2 of their losses (Kentucky, Kansas) were the high profile games that they just couldn't finish, so....maybe this fate was in the cards all along for the Blue Devils.  

Final

Florida 65-63 Houston

The Gators were able to do to the Cougars what Houston had just done to Duke. Well, sorta: whereas Duke snoozed through the last 10 minutes of the game thinking that their lead was good enough, here the Cougars just ran out of gas late and couldn't get buckets. Duke kinda stopped playing but Houston was just ineffective. Houston looked like the better team for most the game and when they hit an 8-point lead early in the 2nd half it felt like too much for the Gators to overcome--especially considering how little Walter Clayton had done up to that point. But Clayton got hot enough, Houston scuffled and the Gators made the plays down the stretch to steal it late--giving Houston a taste of their own medicine. Great W for the Gators, tough L for the Cougars, but the Cougars will be back next season, whereas I'm not sure about any of the rest of the Elite Eight.  

(*) Some will cite the over the back foul on Cooper Flagg in the final minute, but go back at look at the play. Houston got the rebound and had the lead with no shot clock remaining, thus a foul was actually the right move at that moment anyway. You may not have liked the call but it was cerainly not in and of itself a killer mistake or controversy.