Now:
1 Chiefs
2 Bills
3 Steelers
4 Texans
5 Ravens
6 Chargers
7 Broncos
I think that's (pretty much) your playoff lineup for the AFC. I like the Bills to overtake the Chiefs for #1 and I like the Ravens to win their division and for the Steelers to drop to #7. But I think those 7 teams are the 7 that will be in the playoffs.
East: The Bills are going to win this division. The Dolphins are playing their best ball of the season but I just don't see them catching up to the pack. The Jets suck and the Pats are playing for a draft pick (though I wouldn't be surprised to see them pick up a coupla unexpected wins).
North: I've watched the Steelers a lot this year and I'm telling ya: their offense stinks. As they head into division play, I expect them to lose a few more times. I'm not a huge Ravens guy (I'm telling ya: their defense stinks) but I think they're better than the Steelers an will sneak past them to take the division. The Bengals are starting to turn it around but they've dug too deep a hole and their D is suspect. The Browns have given up on the season but I think they'll play hard down the stretch and could play spoiler, but they can't make the post-season.
South: The Texans are a sloppy so-so squad but they're better than the Colts, who still have no identity 12 weeks deep in the season. The Jags just aren't up for winning and the Titans, while I like their D-line and O-line, have no offensive talent at all.
West: The Chiefs are the class of the division and I'd be surprised if they didn't win, but they're not a dominant squad, they are proof that having the best QB and a killer D-line will keep you in every game. The Chargers are better than usual but not so much better that you can rely on them to win the winnable games; I like them to hold on to 5th place overall. I like the Broncos to sneak ahead of the Steelers, they've got a for-real defense and they're getting it done with their rookie QB. The Raiders are awful.
End of Season:
1 Bills
2 Chiefs
3 Ravens
4 Texans
5 Chargers
6 Broncos
7 Steelers
At the end of the day, I think the Bills are better than the Chiefs and since they hold the tiebreaker, I think they'll surpass the Chiefs. I think the second tier squads of the AFC West will finish stronger than the Steelers, who will likely fall behind the Ravens. The Texans have no competition in their division and though they are a bit of a flailing team, I don't see how they miss the playoffs.
NFC
Now:
1 Lions
2 Eagles
3 Falcons
4 Seahawks
5 Vikings
6 Packers
7 Commanders
East: The Eagles are balling right now and have no competition in their division, be kinda shocked if they're not in the top 2 by season's end. The Commanders are a puzzle: they have overachieved while losing games they should win, which happens to exciting young teams but is scary for predicting their future; I think the Commanders are nice but I suspect they have peaked and will fall out of the playoff race over the next month. The Cowboys are somehow playing better now than they have all season long, but I think they're too far back to reach the playoffs (though they're still in it for now). The Giants have given up on the season, they're playing for the #1 pick.
North: The Lions are the best team in football, killing it on both sides, the best Lions squad I've ever seen and I think they'll ride on to #1 in the NFC. The Vikings are a solid squad, good defense and a good enough offense, I don't think they catch the Lions but I'm not sure they can hold off the Packers. The Packers got hot right about this point last season, have had ups and downs this season but seem ready to go another late season run; I'd be more into them if they weren't looking up at the Lions and Vikings but I think they're a shoo-in for the post-season; I think the Packers catch the Vikings. The Bears don't suck but they aren't great (and, man, they're in a killer division!), but they're playing for next season.
South: The Falcons are like your uncle's weird ass old car: on sunny days you complain about what a piece of junk it is but on a cold snowy day you're thankful that it cranks up and goes; the Falcons have the ability to shock people in the post-season but getting there is gonna be a tough ride but I think they can snag a wild card spot from the sinking Commanders. I think the Bucs are gonna win the South, I like the way the play and I think their schedule turns soft at just the right time. The Saints are awful. The Panthers are awful--but strangely not quite as awful as I expected them to be.
West: Currently the Seahawks are atop the table but I like the Cards to come on and sneak past them (even though they just lost in Seattle). The Seahawks have a surprisingly effective passing game but I'm not in on anything else they do and I just don't think they're deep enough to get it done. The Cards are spunky and weird and I think they'll get surprising W's down the stretch. I thought it might be the Rams to make a late season push (*), but this team just isn't deep enough on either side and they have weird injuries. The Niners just didn't get off the mat this season and time is running out for them.
End of Season:
1 Lions
2 Eagles
3 Cards
4 Bucs
5 Packers
6 Vikings
7 Falcons
If this is the lineup, this will be a killer NFC playoff. What I'm suggesting is that the Packers, Bucs and Cards will get hot and the Lions and Eagles will stay hot and, again, they'll look like weak link of this lineup but the Falcons don't suck, you gotta give them a puncher's chance because they've got veterans and can score points.
Okay, we'll see what the last 5 weeks bring.
(*) Full disclosure: I love watching Matt Stafford, probably my fave QB to watch right now. When he's in the groove it's like watching prime Greg Maddux or Pedro Martinez, a thing o' beauty.
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