2024-25 NFL (Week 12)

AFC

Now:

1 Chiefs

2 Bills

3 Steelers

4 Texans

5 Ravens

6 Chargers

7 Broncos

I think that's (pretty much) your playoff lineup for the AFC. I like the Bills to overtake the Chiefs for #1 and I like the Ravens to win their division and for the Steelers to drop to #7. But I think those 7 teams are the 7 that will be in the playoffs.

East: The Bills are going to win this division. The Dolphins are playing their best ball of the season but I just don't see them catching up to the pack. The Jets suck and the Pats are playing for a draft pick (though I wouldn't be surprised to see them pick up a coupla unexpected wins).  

North: I've watched the Steelers a lot this year and I'm telling ya: their offense stinks. As they head into division play, I expect them to lose a few more times. I'm not a huge Ravens guy (I'm telling ya: their defense stinks) but I think they're better than the Steelers an will sneak past them to take the division. The Bengals are starting to turn it around but they've dug too deep a hole and their D is suspect. The Browns have given up on the season but I think they'll play hard down the stretch and could play spoiler, but they can't make the post-season.

South: The Texans are a sloppy so-so squad but they're better than the Colts, who still have no identity 12 weeks deep in the season. The Jags just aren't up for winning and the Titans, while I like their D-line and O-line, have no offensive talent at all. 

West: The Chiefs are the class of the division and I'd be surprised if they didn't win, but they're not a dominant squad, they are proof that having the best QB and a killer D-line will keep you in every game. The Chargers are better than usual but not so much better that you can rely on them to win the winnable games; I like them to hold on to 5th place overall. I like the Broncos to sneak ahead of the Steelers, they've got a for-real defense and they're getting it done with their rookie QB. The Raiders are awful.

End of Season:

1 Bills

2 Chiefs

3 Ravens

4 Texans

5 Chargers

6 Broncos

7 Steelers

At the end of the day, I think the Bills are better than the Chiefs and since they hold the tiebreaker, I think they'll surpass the Chiefs. I think the second tier squads of the AFC West will finish stronger than the Steelers, who will likely fall behind the Ravens. The Texans have no competition in their division and though they are a bit of a flailing team, I don't see how they miss the playoffs. 

NFC

Now:

1 Lions

2 Eagles

3 Falcons

4 Seahawks

5 Vikings

6 Packers

7 Commanders

East: The Eagles are balling right now and have no competition in their division, be kinda shocked if they're not in the top 2 by season's end. The Commanders are a puzzle: they have overachieved while losing games they should win, which happens to exciting young teams but is scary for predicting their future; I think the Commanders are nice but I suspect they have peaked and will fall out of the playoff race over the next month. The Cowboys are somehow playing better now than they have all season long, but I think they're too far back to reach the playoffs (though they're still in it for now). The Giants have given up on the season, they're playing for the #1 pick.

North: The Lions are the best team in football, killing it on both sides, the best Lions squad I've ever seen and I think they'll ride on to #1 in the NFC. The Vikings are a solid squad, good defense and a good enough offense, I don't think they catch the Lions but I'm not sure they can hold off the Packers. The Packers got hot right about this point last season, have had ups and downs this season but seem ready to go another late season run; I'd be more into them if they weren't looking up at the Lions and Vikings but I think they're a shoo-in for the post-season; I think the Packers catch the Vikings. The Bears don't suck but they aren't great (and, man, they're in a killer division!), but they're playing for next season.

South: The Falcons are like your uncle's weird ass old car: on sunny days you complain about what a piece of junk it is but on a cold snowy day you're thankful that it cranks up and goes; the Falcons have the ability to shock people in the post-season but getting there is gonna be a tough ride but I think they can snag a wild card spot from the sinking Commanders. I think the Bucs are gonna win the South, I like the way the play and I think their schedule turns soft at just the right time. The Saints are awful. The Panthers are awful--but strangely not quite as awful as I expected them to be.

West: Currently the Seahawks are atop the table but I like the Cards to come on and sneak past them (even though they just lost in Seattle). The Seahawks have a surprisingly effective passing game but I'm not in on anything else they do and I just don't think they're deep enough to get it done. The Cards are spunky and weird and I think they'll get surprising W's down the stretch. I thought it might be the Rams to make a late season push (*), but this team just isn't deep enough on either side and they have weird injuries. The Niners just didn't get off the mat this season and time is running out for them.

End of Season:

1 Lions

2 Eagles

3 Cards

4 Bucs

5 Packers

6 Vikings

7 Falcons

If this is the lineup, this will be a killer NFC playoff. What I'm suggesting is that the Packers, Bucs and Cards will get hot and the Lions and Eagles will stay hot and, again, they'll look like weak link of this lineup but the Falcons don't suck, you gotta give them a puncher's chance because they've got veterans and can score points. 

Okay, we'll see what the last 5 weeks bring.

(*) Full disclosure: I love watching Matt Stafford, probably my fave QB to watch right now. When he's in the groove it's like watching prime Greg Maddux or Pedro Martinez, a thing o' beauty. 

2024-25 NCAA Football (Week 13)

Games I watched (some of):

(9) Mississippi 17-24 Florida

Ole Miss just kept shooting themselves in the foot (whiffing on 4th down, missed FG, late interceptions to finish the game) and Florida played with maximum intensity (just being the spoiler was all this season had left to offer). Mississippi was fool's gold all along, the QB and the coach both kinda overrated, the defense was so-so at best, the Rebels just didn't play like a top 10 team all season long, even when their offense was going full throttle. And the Gators are mediocre but they play hard and the unexpected W's are sometimes the most fun.

(4) Penn State 26-25 Minnesota

(16) Colorado 21-37 Kansas

Kentucky 14-31 (3) Texas

Went back and forth between these games. Minnesota just kept adding points but somehow the game never felt out of reach for Penn State, so even though this was the nailbiter of the three, it never really felt like Penn State was going to lose. I could've called this a "Won but did not impress" game, but actually I was sorta impressed with how cool and collected the Nittany Lions stayed throughout. The Gophers kept back-assing their way onto the scoreboard but the Lions just rolled with it. 

Colorado just couldn't get stops on Kansas, so they never could cut into the lead or dig their way back into this game; I thought their offense might come alive but it couldn't keep pace. This was the one I watched the most of the three because I expected the most fireworks but KU kept the game out of reach, good W. 

UK-UT was not what I expected: somehow the Longhorns were firmly in control throughout and yet the Wildcats kept this from being a runaway and yet there was never a moment when Kentucky looked capable of winning and yet Texas kinda had to scramble to put this one away. I thought Kentucky would keep them close til halftime then Texas would run away with it in the 2nd half; more like, UT built a nice but not overwhelming cushion, then sat on the cushion for as long as they could, then got a late TD to put it away. I dunno, weird game. (Meanwhile Clemson was pummeling the Citadel, so didn't peak at that one too much)

Top 25

Handled their business

(2) Ohio State, (3) Texas, (4) Penn State, (6) Notre Dame, (8) Miami, (10) Georgia, (11) Tennessee, (13) Southern Methodist, (17) Clemson, (18) South Carolina, (21) Arizona State, (22) Iowa State, (23) Missouri, (24) UNLV, (25) Illinois

Won but did not impress

(12) Boise State. I didn't see any of this game but when a playoff-bound Boise State squad goes on the road in conference, I expect a more decisive victory than a 4th quarter scramble at (2-9) Wyoming. Sometimes I forgive road games in conference, sometimes I expect more. (I dunno, I'm just like that, man)

Bad beat

(5) Indiana. What do you know? Indiana get decisively smoked at Ohio State. Undefeated no longer, but I'd say they're still in line for a playoff spot. 

(19) Army. Also, undefeated no longer after also getting smoked at the home of their very first quality opponent of the season. 

Not so good

(7) Alabama. Never in the game at Oklahoma, best the Sooners have played all year, Bama picked a bad time to flounder. A 3rd L surely drops them out of the playoff (I mean....right? Surely....).

(9) Mississippi. Ole Miss has some nice W's this season but their 3 L's are all pretty sorry. I dropped them from playoff contention a while ago but I'd say they are finished now.

(14) Brigham Young. Back to back disappointing Ls and that's all she wrote for the Cougars.

(15) Texas A&M. Like Ole Miss, they have some nice W's and some sorry L's. 

(16) Colorado. They stormed back into our hearts and then lost in Kansas. So much for Colorado. 

Next week's intriguing matches

Memphis @ (18) Tulane (yup, its Memphis-Tulane time again: that point of the season when these two teams you've paid no attention to all year long get together and we all see--hey, they're both actually pretty good!)

Michigan @ (2) Ohio State (I mean, no one is expecting a Wolverine victory but we're still gonna watch, right?)

(7) Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (the Vols have had their ups and downs this year but they're still probably in line for the playoff....can better-than-expected Vandy ruin their season? (maniacal laugh) I got my popcorn ready!)

(16) South Carolina @ (12) Clemson (can Clemson get back into the playoff with a W over South Carolina? I think maybe they can. How about vice versa?)

(8) Miami @ Syracuse (hey, man, 'Cuse has actually been pretty good this year and Miami has been their usual overrated selves, this games might be better than you think)

My Top 12

1 Oregon

2 Ohio State

3 Texas

4 Notre Dame

5 Penn State

6 Georgia

7 Tennessee

8 SMU

9 Miami

10 Boise State

11 Indiana

12 Clemson

2024-25 NCAA Football (Week 12)

Games I saw (some of):

Utah 24-49 (17) Colorado

Thought Utah might put up a good fight after an embarrassing collapse to BYU the week before, but not so much. Colorado moved the ball well, played stout defense and just all round looked better than I thought they would. Utah is having a disappointing season, Colorado is getting hot at the right time (are they still in on the playoff?)

(22) Louisiana State 16-27 Florida

LSU has been weird all season and though Florida is not particularly strong this year, somehow I knew the Gators were gonna handle the Tigers and they did. LSU's QB is maddening: when he's not throwing the ball away for no reason, he's actually pretty good. As for Florida, they're just playing for the pride at this point. 

(7) Tennessee 17-31 (12) Georgia

I thought UGA would control this match and they did. UGA still has a superior defense and good skill talent, but they're not as cohesive as recent years (and their QB kinda stinks), but I still have them as a top 4 squad, I still think they can hang with just about anybody. Tennessee is nice and when their offense is rolling, they can really pile up points; that said, when they stall, they go all the way to zero (as Newton would say, "an object at rest"), so it was a matter of whether a tough home match against a conference for would get their juices flowing and, well, not enough. UT is still on the edge of my top 12, kinda just depends on how many SEC teams you wanna invite.

Top 25

Handled their business

(2) Ohio State, (3) Texas, (4) Penn State, (8) Notre Dame, (10) Alabama, (12) Georgia, (13) Boise State, (14) Southern Methodist, (15) Texas A&M, (17) Colorado, (20) Clemson, (21) South Carolina, (25) Tulane

Won but did not impress

(1) Oregon. Really had to scramble at Wisconsin, not inspiring, but a conference W on the road ain't bad, I guess. 

Bad beat

(7) Tennessee. If UT was really good, they would've handled UGA at home, but they didn't and....no one is shocked.

(23) Missouri. Getting stomped at Alabama is not normally nothing to be too embarrassed about, but the Tide is as gettable as they've been in a while and Missouri has spent time in the top 10, so I suppose the Tigers thought this was gonna go a different way but....I didn't. Did you?

Not so good

(6) Brigham Young. Woooooowwww! BYU losing at Kansas on some fluke plays in the 4th quarter (holy shit, I don't remember the last time I saw a quick kick! And it worked!) was the stunner of the week. All they had to do was keep skimming through their weak sauce schedule and they were in the playoff. But even a single lame L has probably knocked them out. Did not see that coming, thought this was an easy one for the Cougars.

(16) Kansas State. They got thoroughly handled at home by Arizona State....not good.

(18) Washington State. Couldn't pull out the shoot out at New Mexico State. Not necessarily a terrible loss but if the Cougars were truly top 20, they would've won this match.

(19) Louisville. Likewise, losing late a Stanford isn't the end of the world....for a non-ranked team. But if the Cards are worthy of top 20 consideration, then this is a game they should've won. 

(22) Louisiana State. Losing at Florida is just the next bend of this year's roller coaster.

Next week's intriguing matches

(5) Indiana @ (2) Ohio State (Hoosiers in the top 5? It's a new world....)

Kentucky @ (3) Texas (this should be a blow out, but UK does play their best against good teams, so if Texas is actually good, this could turn interesting; but if UT is overrated and isn't for real....then...this will be over by halftime....?)

(4) Penn State @ Minnesota (is it weird that I find this match compelling? The Nittany Lions should win with ease and yet I can't help thinking they won't)

(14) Brigham Young @ (21) Arizona State (BYU probably blew their season last week and really have nothing play for, Arizona State has been coming on lately and is playing their best ball right now; this might be nothing or it might be a for-real match)

(16) Colorado @ Kansas (can KU go back-to-back heartbreaking upsets? Can Colorado keep their last season march going? Again, this should be a walkover but somehow I feel like it's gonna be a good one)

(19) Army @ (6) Notre Dame (the Irish have been low key trucking people for two straight months, while Army has low key just been piling up W's; Notre Dame should roll the Cadets but they might not)

My top 12

1 Oregon

2 Ohio State

3 Texas

4 Notre Dame

5 Penn State

6 Indiana

7 Georgia

8 Alabama

9 Southern Methodist

10 Mississippi

11 Boise State

12 Miami

(Army, Colorado still lingering with Tennessee and Brigham Young not completely out)

2024-25 NCAA Football (Week 11)

Games I saw (some of):

Michigan 15-20 (8) Indiana

With the way Indiana has been trucking people all year long and as middling as the Wolverines have been, I kinda thought this would be an easy one for the Hoosiers. But Michigan does have a pretty good defense and they got into the Hoosier backfield routinely and Indiana found it difficult to convert on 3rd down. But Indiana pulled it out, they made the plays on both sides down the stretch, got the score they needed and I think this is exactly the kind of struggle they needed to make them a better team. Indiana is going to make the playoff--shocker to be sure, but luring in marginal teams is what the 12-team playoff is all about--and matches like this will make them a tougher out. As for Michigan, a flailing season but they're still playing hard and that is good to see. 

(11) Alabama 42-13 (15) Louisiana State

Bama has been up and down but they brought it here. LSU still has a turnover problem, they just can't consistently put enough points on the board to keep up with the gifts they're giving their opponents. I'm lukewarm on QB Millroe but this was one of his classic games. Alabama still on track to make the playoff but I think this result finishes off LSU.

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Oregon, (2) Ohio State, (5) Texas, (6) Penn State, (7) Tennessee, (10) Notre Dame, (11) Alabama, (12) Boise State, (16) Mississippi, (20) Colorado, (21) Washington State, (23) Clemson, (24) Missouri, (25) Army

Won but did not impress

(8) Indiana. Didn't rack it up, but made the plays they needed to make late and, well, maybe that was more impressive than I'm giving it credit for. 

(9) Brigham Young. Hey, man, you can say they got bailed out by a fluky penalty, but the call wasn't so egregious and they finished the long drive to win it and they deserved it. That said, this game really shouldn't have been close (but Utah plays with pride). 

Bad beat

(15) Louisiana State. Sorry, LSU, you needed to beat Alabama but you didn't. 

Not so good

(3) Georgia. Losing at Ole Miss is forgivable but they got smoked in the 2nd half and it was another poor performance from QB Beck. 

(4) Miami. Looks like they were never in this game, I could forgive a conference L on the road but Miami is bucking for a bye in the playoff and I just don't think this team is good enough.  

(17) Iowa State. Yeah, I was never in on the Cyclones this season and I'm still not. 

(18) Pittsburgh. Pitt is a nice team but probably not a top 25 team. 

Next week's intriguing matches

(17) Clemson @ Pittsburgh (Clemson should be rolling by now but they're not; Pitt is coming off a tough L, should be ready to go this week)

Utah @ (18) Colorado (Utah, too, is coming off a heartbreaker, wouldn't be surprised to see them give the Buffaloes a scare)

(24) Missouri @ South Carolina (the Gamecocks have a lot of nice W's this season, not gonna be an easy out for Missouri)

(6) Tennessee @ (11) Georgia (Okay, both teams need this W, if Beck plays mistake-free, I think UGA is better but we'll see)

My Top 12

1 Oregon

2 Ohio State

3 Texas

4 Brigham Young

5 Penn State

6 Indiana

7 Georgia

8 Notre Dame

9 Alabama

10 Tennessee

11 Southern Methodist

12 Mississippi

(Miami, Boise State, Army, Texas A&M, Colorado still lingering)

2024-25 NCAA Football (Week 10)

Games I saw (some of)

(4) Ohio State 20-13 (3) Penn State

Looks like a close game and the Nittany Lions didn't get blown out, but...I dunno, man, the Buckeyes missed on a coupla big plays that would've made this game a blowout. I'm still in on Penn State for the top 12, I think they'll still be top 10 by the end of the season but they've got a real Buckeye allergy that is still frustrating them. As for the Buckeyes, good strong W on the road in conference against a higher ranked for, big ups for Ohio State.

Louisville 33-21 (11) Clemson

Man, Clemson just never got going in this game. Louisville played well, but I can't help thinking that Clemson could've won if they'd just shown up. But, they had no offense til the 4th quarter and that was too late to matter. Nice win for the Cards, bad L for Clemson, who had been rolling. 

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Oregon, (2) Georgia, (4) Ohio State, (5) Miami, (7) Tennessee, (13) Indiana, (15) Boise State, (19) Mississippi, (20) Southern Methodist, (21) Army

Bad beat

(3) Penn State. They could be extremely dangerous against anyone except Ohio State.

(18) Pittsburgh. Not ready for the SMU attack. Nice season but I don't see their path to the top 12.

Not so good

(10) Texas A&M. Stomped at South Carolina, I for one was not shocked to see that result.

(11) Iowa State. I was never in on the Cyclones and the L at home to Texas Tech has probably finished off their season.

(11) Clemson. I didn't understand this L to Louisville, thought the Tigers were rolling but they looked stuck in mud this Saturday. 

(17) Kansas State. An L at Houston isn't bad but they're probably out of the top 12 now. 

(24) Illinois. Nice season, Illini, I was already out on you guys, though.

Next week's intriguing matches

(2) Georgia @ (18) Mississippi (Ole Miss is still in the mix....for now; UGA could use another good W)

(21) Colorado @ Texas Tech (Can Tech keep their magic going against the newly restored Buffaloes?)

South Carolina @ (24) Vanderbilt (South Carolina has had some nice W's already this year, they weren't expecting Vandy to be ranked but here they are; to be honest, I like Vandy, but we'll see)

(11) Alabama @ (14) Louisiana State (an undercard match but should be a fun one)

Top 12

I'll go on record now as saying I'm not a fan of the 12-team playoff except that this model should last a while because it becomes a logistical nightmare beyond that. The 4-team system was perfect but the moneyed classes always demand more and *dammit!* I'm gonna watch it, so I'm just as much to blame as the greedy plutocrats. *sigh* 

But here's the problem: in any given season there are only 5-6 teams that are worth watching and I think that's still true this season. Getting to 12 is actually kinda hard. 

1) Oregon

2) Ohio State

3) Georgia

4) Texas

5) Miami

6) Penn State

7) Indiana

8) Brigham Young

9) Tennessee

10) Notre Dame

11) Southern Methodist

12) Alabama

With Notre Dame, Boise State, Army and one of Mississippi/Texas A&M/Louisiana State lingering. I don't see a path for anyone else--and honestly I'm not that excited about anyone below Miami, so...what do we need 12 teams for? (Oh right: more money)