2023-24 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

East

(Game Five) Cavs 98-113 Celtics

Yup, gentleman's sweep. Sounds about right. The Cavs have a weird summer ahead: do they trade Donovan Mitchell (likely won't re-sign next summer) or Darius Garland (highest paid player on the roster)? Do they trade Jarrett Allen (kinda ugly behind-the-scenes report on him) or figure out how to play him with Evan Mobley? Does bringing back Isaac Okoro revolve around any of the potential trades above? Is there anyone that wants Georges Niang (liked him in Philly but he just doesn't fit in this lineup)? For a recently rebuilt team with good young talent that made the quarterfinals, the Cavs have more questions than answer going forward--which is not to say that they'll be bad next year. If they can navigate the landscape, they might be awesome, but they've got some work to do.  

(Five) Pacers 91-121 Knicks

(Six) Knicks 103-116 Pacers

(Seven) Pacers 130-109 Knicks

The Pacers looked so bad in their three losses, it's almost hard to remember that they actually won this series. And, even then, well, I mean, the Knicks had nobody left to play by the time Game Seven rolled around. But the Pacers handled their business by shooting the lights out in the 1st half of Game Seven; the Knicks went on a run after halftime, but the Pacers countered, restored the lead they had at halftime, then when Jalen Brunson went down with a broken hand (after OG Anunoby broke down almost immediately), and that was that. The Knicks had a nice season but injuries absolutely wrecked them--and Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo. Josh Hart and Isiah Hartenstein still almost got them to the next round. Knicks fans should hold their heads high today--and I haven't thought that since the mid-1990s. I think they'll move on from Bogdanovic (clearly not a Thibs fave), I think they'll lose Hartenstein (OKC ought to take a run at him), I think Alec Burks passed his Lakers audition with flying colors, they've got a big decision to make about re-signing Anunoby (man, he's gonna want long term money that his injury history turns into a tough sell), and not sure Precious Achiuwa makes it back either. So as hard as this team worked, I can see a lot of turnover going into next season and while it'll be good to get back all the injured guys, I can see them making big moves (Randle, Robinson could be on the way out) and looking kinda different next year. 

West

(Five) Mavs 104-92 Thunder

(Six) Thunder 116-117 Mavs

Game Six was the flip of Game Four: OKC had a nice but not overwhelming lead for most of the game, but the Mavs perfectly timed their run and stole it late. The Mavs defense impressed me: slowing down arguably the best offense in the league for 5 straight games (eh, the Mavs kinda mailed in Game One) was not something I thought they could do. I loved this OKC team and I expect them to look pretty much the same next year. Listen to me, OKC: ignore the haters and do NOT trade Josh Giddy! Don't do it! SGA and Chet and Giddy look like they've been playing together their whole lives and I think breaking them up just because the Mavs played unexpectedly good D and got crazy scoring from bench players is no reason to give up on the squad that finished #1 in the West this year. I suggest taking a run at Isiah Hartenstein and Nic Claxton, keep an eye on the availability of Isaac Okoro, Derrick Jones Jr, and Bol Bol, go ahead and take Zach Edey (Purdue) at #12 (and/or trade back for future picks) and if they're in the reclamation biz, why not give James Wiseman one more try? They need rebounding, I think the inability to get second chance opportunities put too much pressure on their offense and the Mavs stepped up into it, sucking the life out of OKC at precisely the wrong time. I still like this OKC squad as constituted by they've got to add some size this summer and I think they can upgrade their interior without making any trades.

(Five) Wolves 97-112 Nuggets

(Six) Nuggets 70-115 Wolves

(Seven) Wolves 98-90 Nuggets

Weird series: I can't recall a 7 game series where all the games were blowouts. The Wolves overcame a 20-point deficit in Game Seven, riding a 3rd quarter wave all the way to the conference finals. Jamal Murray didn't seem fully healthy to me, Michael Porter Jr just never got going, Aaron Gordon and Caldwell-Pope just didn't get buckets and though Christian Braun pitched in nicely, he didn't get buckets either. I love Jokic and I thought he was generally great but the supporting cast wasn't there and the Wolves defense put too much pressure on him. What do the Nuggets do this summer? If I was the Nuggets I'd look into what they could get for Porter (how about to Blazers for Brogdon and Robert Williams?), he's a nice spot up shooter but he clearly just can't do anything else. Otherwise they're probably just looking for vets ring-chasing and check-cashing on the way out, like Gordon Hayward, Kyle Lowry, Doug McDermott, Thaddeus Young, Robin Lopez (any of those names getting you excited?). And they might lose KCP and/or Reggie Jackson, too, so I think that bench behind the core of Jokic-Murray-Gordon is gonna get a little skimpier. I love Jokic, but he's looking like a 1-term Prez (had a lot of those lately). 

Conference Finals

Pacers - Celtics

The Pacers are a nice team, good depth, not bad on defense, but they go as their leader, Tyrese Halliburton, goes and sometimes Halliburton doesn't really get going. In the four wins against the Knicks, he was great; but in the three losses, man, he sucked--and sucked in all the ways you really don't want your all-star PG to suck. That said, the Celtics are just better than the Pacers, so prime Halliburton probably doesn't get more than 2 wins in this series. As for the Celtics, I'd give Porzingis the first 2 games off, but I'd like to see him play in Game Three (especially if the Pacers take a game in Boston) or definitely by Game Four. I think the Celtics can beat the Pacers without him, but even still, he'll need to be in game shape by the Finals, so I expect him to play some in this series, even if the Celtics don't need him. You can count on the Celtics to have one truly lackluster performance, I'd put that in Game Three. I like the Celtics to win the first two at home, then give one away in Indy, but wrap it up in five. Again, I don't want to diss the Pacers, they're pretty good and they absolutely earned their way to the final four; but the Celtics have been doing this longer and they have better upfront talent (with or without Porzingis) and in general I just like the Celtics better anyway. Celtics in 5.

Mavs - Wolves

Oh, man, this is gonna be a rock fight. I think this goes 7 games, I think they're all close, and I'm only going with the Wolves because I think at the end of the day, they're tougher and more balanced. The Mavs bested OKC with a resurgence in defense that stymied one of the best offenses in the league--and if the Wolves think they're getting easy buckets, oh I don't think so. But nor will the Mavs. They won't Kyrie float like a butterfly on them, Luka will have a lot of length in his face even from deep beyond the arc and the shocking scoring skills of PJ Washington and Derek Jones will likely go back to dormancy against this attacking defense. I think the Mavs superior offense will win out enough to push this series, but I like the Wolves offense to survive the long series a little better. If the Mavs had another scorer that could be relied upon, maybe they could triangulate away that Wolves D, but I don't think the contributions they got against OKC will materialize against the Wolves. Tough series, hard fought games, I like the Wolves in 7.

2023-24 NBA Playoffs (2nd round, 4 games in)

East

Celtics 106-93 Cavs

Celtics 109-102 Cavs

See? When the Celtics just play a normal game, they beat the Cavs because they are the better team. Certainly possible the Celtics let another game slip away but I doubt it. They're poised to finish this in 5 and I think they will.

Knicks 106-111 Pacers

Knicks 89-121 Pacers

The Knicks are down to the fumes, while it feels like the Pacers are getting healthier and deeper. Brunson is still a monster (MVP of the playoffs, so far?) and still quite capable of keeping this series alive, but I just don't see how the Knicks win this without Randle, Onunoby, Robinson and Bogdanovic. Don't like to complain about the refs--and I like the mid-season changes to let the games get more physical--but the problem is that the calls now seem kinda random. This series in particular has a ton of moments where you go, 'Wait, you called that? You let them beat each other up all the way down the court and then called that?'  In general I prefer swallowing the whistle and not stopping for free throws every 30 seconds, but that did create a clearer template of what the refs were looking for. I never know what the refs are gonna call and that's not exactly a great leap forward. I still feel like the Pacers have more legs and should win 2 of the next 3 games but the refs could still play a part. 

West

Thunder 101-105 Mavs

Thunder 100-96 Mavs

Whoa! Game Four was one of the most puzzling games I've ever watched. The Mavs were great, did everything they wanted at both ends, had a nice lead throughout, the crowd was going nuts, while the Thunder struggled at every phase, no one shot well, the defense was spotty and they are seemingly incapable of getting an offensive rebound....and yet with 4 minutes to go, the Mavs were up by 3....wtf? How is the game close? Frankly, if the Mavs had made some FT's, they would've won by 20--this game would've been long over by the end of the 3rd quarter. Worth pointing out that Luka didn't really do much and Kyrie was playmaking more than getting buckets, I guess that's why they just didn't have the advantage on points, but neither of them played badly and the Mavs were pretty much in control all the way. I will say, the Thunder did a good job of keeping the Mavs from running away with the game (well, they gave the Mavs plenty of chances to score at the FT line) and as the clock wound down, the Thunder got hot enough to get themselves back in it. But, still, I watched the whole game and I still can't believe the Mavs didn't win by double digits. The Thunder are struggling against the Mavs' suddenly all-world defense but an interesting thing is that the entire Thunder roster is struggling right now, no one is abysmal but none of them are playing well and that is weird because the Thunder's super power is that they never really stop scoring--somebody's getting buckets! On the other side, PJ Washington and Derek Jones Jr are playing out of their minds and while the Mavs aren't exactly running up the score, no one is playing badly over there. This series is a puzzle, I don't really understand what I'm looking at: feels like the Thunder are naturally the better team but they're not taking the most advantage of their chances; meanwhile it feels like the Mavs are playing some of their best ball right now and yet the series is still tie up. (Oh, and throw in the ref stuff from above--this series is all over the place in terms of flow because the refs are randomly appearing) This is going 7, right?

Nuggets 117-90 Wolves

Nuggets 115-107 Wolves

Yeah, I knew the Nuggets were too good to get swept. But Jamal Murray clearly isn't 100%, so I knew they were in trouble. But the Wolves mailed in Game Three and never got going in Game Four, so we are tied up going back to Denver. So, are the Nuggets back to normal? Well, Murray is not tip top and Michael Porter Jr is still just a minor piece, so the Wolves still have the firepower to get the Nuggets off-balance. My gut is the Nuggets are the better team, Jokic is the best player and they will win Game Five and Game Seven back home.

2023-24 NBA Playoffs (2nd round, 2 games in)

East

Cavs 95-120 Celtics

Cavs 118-94 Celtics

Game One was a yawn as the Cavs just never got going and the Celtics cruised. Game Two was all about the Celtics just not hitting shots, which allowed the Cavs to build up the lead after halftime. In the 1st game the Celtics got nice contributions from their bench, but in the 2nd game....not so much. The panic is real, the Celtic fans are nervous--to which I say, relax. The Celtics just didn't make their shots, if they shoot like normal, they'd win this game easily and even if they just shot okay, this game still would've been winnable. Going back to Cleveland, I expect the Celtics to dominate at least one of the games (probably Game Three) and might even steal the other and be back in position to win in Game Five. The Cavs are a nice team but the Celtics really have to not score in order for the Cavs to win. This series is unexpectedly tied up, but I'm not worried (yet) about the Celtics.

Pacers 117-121 Knicks

Pacers 121-130 Knicks

The Pacers are pretty salty about the officiating in this series so far and while I normally don't cotton to ref talk, the way they got jobbed on the final possession of Game One was egregious. How do you call a moving screen in the final minute of the game? In Game Two, Jalen Brunson got hurt, went out of the game for a good 15 minutes and the Pacers were clearly the superior squad in his absence; but when he returned after halftime, Brunson was unstoppable and lifted the Knicks back up (even though OG Anunoby got hurt and left--probably for the series!). The Pacers have the deeper bench as the series heads back to Indy, I expect that to matter, so I think the Pacers will win the next two games. The Knicks are now without Julius Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mitchell Robinson and (it appears) OG Anunoby--and with Brunson nursing something. If the Pacers can get Tyrese Halliburton back to the FIBA monster he was last summer, then the Pacers should have the depth to get back in this series and if they can just withstand Brunson, they can still win. Not only is this series not over, I think I like the Pacers to win 4 of the next 5 games, the Knicks are just too skimpy right now (and Josh Hart is on pace to average the most minutes in playoff history). 

West

Mavs 95-117 Thunder

Mavs 119-110 Thunder

(Hmmmm....ditto the Cavs-Celtics series..?) Game One was a snooze as the home team Thunder cruised without much effort. But in Game Two, the Thunder had scoring troubles (not something the Thunder do very often) and it gave the Mavs the chance to steal one on the road. On the one hand, I was way more impressed with the Mavs' defense than I expected to be; but, come on, the Thunder had shots they normally make and they just didn't go down. Throw in that PJ Washington went for 29, which I don't expect to happen again, and this is something of a fluke result. Not that the Mavs suck but I think OKC is better and ready to outscore them consistently, whereas in Game Two, no one shot well, Shai seemed sluggish, Giddy was a net negative and Chet did little to contribute. The Mavs are good, this series should go for a while but in Game Two, the Thunder just had a bad night, I still expect them to move on to the next round. 

Wolves 106-99 Nuggets

Wolves 106-80 Nuggets

Ohhhhh fuuuuuuuu-dge! Game One was a nice win for the Wolves, who came in with a serious intensity and, unlike most of the Nuggets' opponents for the last coupla seasons, didn't fold in the 4th quarter. Nice win. Game Two, on the other hand, was a straight up drubbing, the likes of which we haven't seen Jokic endure for a while now. Jokic is clearly struggling with the length of the Wolves defenders, Jamal Murray doesn't look healthy and Michael Porter Jr--after something of a breakout performance against the Lakers in the first round--is back to his one-dimensional self. The Nuggets look to be in some serious trouble as their world-beating home court advantage has completely vanished, but the Nuggets are still the champs and I except them to compete much better back in Minnesota--I do not expect a sweep. That said, it'll be a fierce uphill climb and winning 4 of the next 5 looks out of reach. 

2023-24 Champions League (semifinals)

Real Madrid 2-2 Bayern Munich

In the fist minute, Bayern was able to tick-tack their way through the Real defense for a nice early look that the keeper was able to swat away, but they spent the rest of the 1st half trying hard to finagle their way into the Real defense (yeah that felt like it wasn't gonna work). Real shook loose on a counter, found Vini up front (on a beautiful pass!), and he was able to sneak it past the keeper (who was stuck in the awkward position of needing to come out decisively right away) for the opening goal. Real held the 1-0 lead at halftime and while Bayern hadn't been able to get much offense going, it definitely felt like there were going to be more goals. Sure enough, Sane connected pretty soon after on one the most cold blooded rips I've ever seen--dude, there was no goal to shoot at, that was like Gretzky level sharpshooting! Quickly Bayern was able to get the penalty call (good call) and took the lead when Kane stuck the PK. But Madrid clawed back the draw on a PK (good call) and it is level going back to Spain. 

Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Paris St. Germaine

Tight game. Dortmund scored the only goal fairly early in the game when Fullkrug was able to haul down a long pass over the defense and then drill a low line drive right at the keeper's legs (amazing that he was able to keep that rip so low). The 2nd half was fun, both sides had numerous chances on goal. Neither team scored but, man, PSG hit the post like 20 times, including a sequence where Mbappe hit the post, then PSG gathered the rebound and Hakimi hit the other post seconds later. Fun stuff, but the lack of scoring worked to Dortmund's advantage. 

Paris St Germaine 0-1 (agg 0-2) Borussia Dortmund

Oh man, PSG hit the post like 12 more times in this one! Dortmund dug in, played minimal offense, but they were able to connect on a corner just after halftime and the match felt over to me. PSG played with ferocity--and the goal posts will need a new paint job after all that was chipped off from them--but they just couldn't find the scoreboard. There was a controversial (I suppose) no-call late in the match, but I thought it was a 50/50 call and it was so late in the game, it's hard to imagine it would've made a difference. PSG had the firepower but they just couldn't summon it in these two matches with Dortmund. 

Real Madrid 2-1 (agg 4-3) Bayern Munich

Wow, what a finish! Good back and forth action, though I thought Real was generally the more dangerous looking side. The goal scoring didn't get going until well into the 2nd half when Bayern was able to push a long ball forward, catching the defense off-guard, Davies finished with a move to the inside then a rip to the far post. Felt like that was gonna be that, but...then in the 88th minute, Real scored on a rebound of a rather innocuous-looking save of a searching lob towards goal, but just like that the game was tied and what had felt like a Bayern victory lap was heading toward extra time. But...then in the 90th minute, Real found pay dirt again, but it was called off-side...until it wasn't (the right call) and the goal was allowed and now Real was back on top. Then deep in extra time Bayern scored again but it, too, was called off-side (the wrong call!) but unlike Real's goal, Bayern wasn't saved by the replay and Real is heading to the Champions League final. This reminded me of the 1999 (1998?) final where Bayern went up 1-0 on Man U early, then the rest of the match was a bit of a snooze until the final 10 mins or so when Man U cranked up the intensity and managed to net 2 goals in extra time to win it all. That was a crazy finish and so was this.  

Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund

Well, looking back on it the all-around best squad in this year's tourney, I think, was Manchester City but they fell to Real. So but the transitive property it is clear that Real is the best team remaining. I'm a little surprised Dortmund has lasted this long but they've made the plays they needed to make all the way through. Can they hang with Madrid? Yeah, probably, but going up against Bayern in the final would've been pretty awesome for the Dortmund fans (of which, incidentally, I am one). I've loved Dortmund's run and if they won, that would be great. But it feels like Real has more depth, more firepower up front, and just more pedigree, so I figure it'll be Real Madrid hoisting the trophy. We'll see.