2021-22 NBA (pre-season predictions)

I'll just throw down my pre-season predictions for the season because it's always fun to look back and see how wrong I was. 

MVP: Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks)

Here's my pool of potential MVP candidates: Donovan Mitchell (Jazz), Devin Booker (Suns), Chris Paul (Suns), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Anthony Davis (Lakers), Lebron James (Lakers), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Steph Curry (Warriors), Paul George (Clippers), Ja Morant (Grizzlies), Damien Lillard (Bazers), De'Aaron Fox (Kings), Karl-Anthony Towns (Wolves), Anthony Edwards (Wolves), Dejounte Murray (Spurs), Jakob Poeltl (Spurs), Zion Williamson (Pelicans), Jalen Green (Rockets), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Giannis Antetokoupo (Bucks), Trae Young (Hawks), Kevin Durant (Nets), James Harden (Nets), Jimmy Butler (Heat), Kyle Lowry (Heat), Bam Adebayo (Heat), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), Julius Randle (Knicks), Nikola Vucevic (Bulls), Joel Embiid (Sixers), LaMelo Ball (Hornets), PJ Washington (Hornets), Bradley Beal (Wizards), Malcolm Brogdon (Pacers), Domantis Sabonis (Pacers), Collin Sexton (Cavs), Jerami Grant (Pistons), Jalen Suggs (Magic)

There are a few guys on this list that I'd be shocked if they won; but I'd be double dog super shocked if someone NOT on this list won MVP. From the list above, go through and pick the team that will either dominate the regular season or vastly improve over last season, then pick that team's leading scorer and you got a good shot at picking the MVP. 

Which teams will "dominate" this year? In the East I'd go with the Bucks (Giannis) and Hawks (Trae); in the West, I'd say it's Jazz (Mitchell) and Suns (Booker/Paul). Which teams will most improve over last year? I'd say Hawks (Trae) in the East and Mavs (Luka) in the West. Which are the "casually brilliant" teams that we'll kick ourselves if we don't acknowledge? Obviously it's the Nets (Durant/Harden) and the Lakers (Lebron/AD).  

Giannis, Trae (two votes for Trae), Mitchell, Doncic, Booker, Paul, Durant, Harden, Lebron and Davis. That's a pretty good top nine. I'll take Giannis because I think the Bucks will lead the East--fairly casually, I might add--which would be an improvement on last year. And Giannis is going to do everything with grade-A effort and a smile. And he won the championship after getting snubbed by all the voters last year. Time for a return to the top for Giannis. 

Rookie of the Year: Jalen Suggs (Magic)

Not every team has a worthwhile candidate, a coupla teams have too many worthwhile candidates, but I'd say this is your list for Rookie of the Year: Justin Johnson (Hawks), Dae'Ron Sharpe (Nets), Quentin Grimes (Knicks). Ayo Dosunmo (Bulls), Jaden Springer (Sixers). James Bouknight (Hornets), Kai Jones (Hornets), Chris Duarte (Pacers), Corey Kispert (Wizards), Scottie Barnes (Raptors), Even Mobley (Cavs), Cade Cunningham (Pistons), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Jared Butler (Jazz), Austin Reaves (Lakers), Bones Hyland (Nuggets), Moses Moody (Warriors), BJ Boston (Clippers), Keon Johnson (Clippers), Zaiare Williams (Grizzlies), Greg Brown (Blazers), Davion Mitchell (Kings), Leandro Bolmaro (Wolves), Joshua Primo (Spurs), Trey Murphy (Pelicans), Alperen Sengun (Rockets), Jalen Green (Rockets), Tre Mann (Thunder), Josh Giddey (Thunder)

A lot of those guys are barely gonna see the floor this year (I didn't even bother to add Jonathon Kuminga (Warriors), for example, because even though he was a top 10 pick, I doubt he'll get more than 5 minutes a night), while a lot of these guys are gonna play way too much because their teams are terrible. Let me explain my main criterion: I see the Rookie year as an audition for the future, not something in itself. It is rare for a Rookie to lead the league in any statistical category or lead his team deep into the playoffs, so it isn't anything in the particular Rookie year that matters, I'm looking for future performance and who showed the most in their time on the court, not necessarily just the stats they piled up. Who will display the leadership or just undeniable flat out talent that makes you want that guy on your team? Which guys make you regret not picking them? Which guys just look like stars or even ideal role players? Which guys will transcend their current team situation to shine out?

I'll narrow that list to: James Bouknight (Hornets), Kai Jones (Hornets), Chris Duarte (Pacers), Scottie Barnes (Raptors), Even Mobley (Cavs), Cade Cunningham (Pistons), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Bones Hyland (Nuggets), BJ Boston (Clippers), Keon Johnson (Clippers), Davion Mitchell (Kings), Alperen Sengun (Rockets), Jalen Green (Rockets), Josh Giddey (Thunder)

I could be reaching on Jones, Hyland, Boston, and Johnson, but I think those guys are gonna get rotation minutes and be fairly impressive. On the other hand, perhaps I am dismissing too quickly guys like Primo or Kispert, who will probably play. Also, I should say that while I think the 2021 draft has a lot of nice players that are going to play for a while, I didn't really see anyone that struck me as an obvious superstar. Also, there are guys that I like that I think will take a while to develop and may well be considered the best in this class in the future, but aren't likely to break out as rookies: Kuminga (Warriors), Mobley (Cavs), Boston (Clippers), Sengun (Rockets).

I'm going with Suggs (Magic) because I think by year's end he will be the clear leader on his team, whereas I don't think Cunningham (Pistons) or Giddey (Thunder) or even Green (Rockets) will get to that point this year. For runner-up, I'll go with Barnes (Raptors) because I think he's gonna be great in the Raptor rotation and may well be the most coveted player come contract extension time. (Wonder if I would still have them as my top two choices if Suggs was in Toronto and Barnes was in Orlando as was predicted to happen before draft day? I'll go ahead and answer that: No, I don't think I would've those two as my top two. Just throwing that out there)

 

6th Man: Patty Mills (Nets)

This is a tough one because there are two ways to forecast this: go back over previous winners and grab one or find someone you've never heard of and bet it all on that guy. Though the bench is important, all the bad ass dudes wanna be starters, so no one covets the role of 6th Man the way they should. For example, to me the obvious dude to win this year--to dominate the voting for this award this year--is Russell Westbrook (Lakers), but it probably won't work out that way. If I was Coah Vogel, I wouldn't play Westbrook with Lebron or AD, I'd make him king of the 2nd string and let him pick and choose his own crew; I'd keep my starting five separate and I'd let Westbrook lord over the bottom of the roster in his own way. But that's not how it's gonna work (oh, maybe by playoff time the Lakers might look something like that but they sure won't start off that way).  So who is the 6th Man for the Lakers? I dunno. 

Indeed, for any team it's hard to predict ahead who will be the guy that gels the 2nd string, that comes off the bench and creates action or settles turmoil. Also, award voters tend to prefer scoring to non-scoring, so  a reliable vet that will pile up monster rebounds (Andre Drummond (Sixers), for example) or come off the bench for more of a defensive role (Cam Johnson (Suns), for example), will likely lose votes to a flashy scorer that actually puts up mediocre average stats (Jordan Clarkson (Jazz), for example). Also, coming off the bench for a good team will likely earn more favor than playing well off the bench for a team going nowhere (like Jarrod Vanderbilt (Wolves), for example).  

My short list in no particular order: Immanuel Quickley (Knicks), Patty Mills (Nets), Tyler Herro (Heat), Luke Kennard (Clippers), Jalen Brunson (Mavs), Terry Rozer (Hornets). But if you're looking for a good scorer from a good team that everyone already knows? Oh, that would be Lou Williams (Hawks), who's definitely worth keeping on the short list. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Drue Holiday (Bucks)

There is the obvious pick (Rudy Gobert (Jazz)) or a sentimental fave (Jimmy Butler (Heat)) or even a wacky should/could kinda pick (Ben Simmons (Sixers?)). But I think by the end of the year, voters will look back to the 2020-21 playoffs and remember just how damn amazing Holiday was all through last year's playoffs. If Holiday plays anything like that this year--tough to do over the long haul of a regular season--then I think he gets some 'long shadow' votes recalling back to the previous season. 

Although if you're looking for new blood, keep an eye on Devin Vasell (Spurs), Tyrese Hailburton (Kings), Jaren Jackson Jr (Grizzlies), Mo Bamba (Magic), OG Anunoby (Raptors), Matisse Thybulle (Sixers), and don't forget Nerlens Noel (Knicks) or Marcus Smart (Celtics). 

Coach: Frank Vogel (Lakers)

In the East I'd expect votes for : Mike Budenholzer (Bucks), Nate Macmillan (Hawks), James Borrego (Hornets) and Billy Donovan (Bulls). In the West, I'd say votes go to: Monty Williams (Suns), Mike Malone (Nuggets), Tyronn Lue (Clippers) and Vogel (Lakers).

Look, the Lakers are going to be good whether we want them to be or not. Lebron will will them to greatness, even if dragging the dirty laundry (Melo, Ariza, Dwight, etc.) is more trouble than its worth. Vogel will take the brunt of the criticism when it all goes wrong but he'll get some glory from the voters if he has the Lakers headed in the right direction by season's end. And I think he will. It'll take a while for this squad to round into shape. They've taken on a lot of high profiles used-to-be's and negotiating the order in which they get dumped over the side of the boat will be traumatic and exasperating and I think Vogel will be a magnet for most of that. Normally, the coach just takes the blame and that's how it goes, but I think there's a slow turning at work that will make the voters appreciate all the shit that they will have dumped on Vogel throughout the season and will reward him with their pity votes. I think the Lakers will be funky for most of the season (for which Vogel will get blamed) but they'll be right by the end of the season (for which Vogel will be rewarded). 

Exec of the Year: Travis Shlenk (Hawks)

Obviously we haven't seen the moves the GM's will make in season and that will likely determine the winner of this award. But I think Shlenk has put together an almost perfect roster this summer, adding slyly good vets, picking up two steals in the draft and cementing the status of Nate MacMillan as pater familias of this team. The Hawks are ready to kick ass and I don't think they'll need to make moves at the deadline, which is probably why Shlenk won't win, but I think it's exactly why he should!

Regular season predictions:

East

Top 6: Bucks, Hawks, Nets, Heat, Celtics, Knicks

Play-in: Bulls, Sixers, Hornets, Pacers

Lottery: Raptors, Wizards, Cavs, Pistons Magic

West

Top 6: Jazz, Suns, Mavs, Lakers, Nuggets, Warriors

Play-in: Clippers, Grizzlies, Blazers, Kings

Lottery: Wolves, Spurs, Pelicans, Rockets, Thunder

Playoff predictions:

East

Bucks over Sixers, Hawks over Bulls, Nets over Knicks, Heat over Celtics

Bucks over Heat, Hawks over Nets

Bucks over Hawks in 7

West

Jazz over Blazers, Suns over Clippers, Warriors over Mavs, Lakers over Nuggets

Warriors over Jazz, Lakers over Suns

Lakers over Warriors in 7

Finals

Bucks over Lakers in 6

There you have it. Doesn't even seem necessary to play the games any more.