2020 Academy Awards

Documentary
I have not seen any of the nominees and this category does offer a kooky conundrum: I suspect Honeyland is everyone's favorite title but American Company is the reason Barry and Shelly Obama were thought to be in attendance (no dice, the Obamas will be eating microwave popcorn in their jammies like the rest of us). Honeyland is an uplifting movie about nature at its loveliest and most optimistic but American Factory gives all those good Cali liberals a chance to vote for Obama for a third time (ha!). As for the other three titles, I just can't imagine they're gonna have any shot. And if the Obamas aren't in attendance, I'd be surprise if a nuts-and-bolts blue collar worker movie actually won. (I had two docs in my top ten this year: Apollo 11 (a reminder that people used to set out to do things and then do them) and Hail Satan? (an eye-opening look at the practices and crusades of the Satanic Temple, which it turns out cares way more about the American people than any political candidate I've ever seen)).  My pick: Honeyland 

Visual Effects
Actually I only saw two of the nominees in this category: 1917 (amazingly good) and The Irishman (amazingly divisive). Avengers and Star Wars and Disney, yeah yeah yeah, but I thought Ad Astra was good enough to be here and that Midsommar was quite sly in its use of visual effects. But I suspect 1917 will nab a lot of down ballot votes like this one and it is a worthy recipient. (My personal fave: 1917) My pick: 1917

Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Yeah, I don't do the Oscar-picking thing the way it is supposed to be done as I think of this as one category that I would call Sound Design. And the Academy clearly thinks pretty much the same way since (as per usual) four of the five nominees are the same across the two categories: 1917, Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Ford v Ferrari, all of which are perfectly reasonable candidates. I suspect 1917 sweeps both of these because the film was a technical marvel, so giving it the tech awards makes sense, and often these two categories are where you see the big winner swallow up a bunch of momentum. (Personal faves: 1917, Ad Astra) My pick: 1917 to take both

Original Song
I dunno, this category means absolutely nothing to me year after year. My gut is that Sir Elton has already won an Oscar (and that Bohemian Rhapsody last year took care of everyone's classic rock jones), that Frozen II was a fine little hit but not the cultural juggernaut the original was, that Toy Story 4 made some money but didn't turn any heads and....wait, what is Breakthrough? I'm going with Harriet largely because I don't think Cynthas Erivo has much shot at Best Actress. (My personal fave: uh, so I guess Guava Island isn't eligible? Nor is "Anima"?) My pick: Harriet

Original Score
Yeah, I only notice scores when they're terrible, so I've got no ear for this one (Them That Follow was the only film this year that featured a score that was so--uh, not bad, let's say inappropriate--that it caught my attention). So far I've been leaning toward 1917 for anything I'm not sure of, but I'll go with Little Women here (the other title I expect to win more than you think), though I wouldn't be shocked to see John Williams win for one more Star Wars movie or Joker to earn some recognition for being such a volatile hit or for Marriage Story to be remembered for its one lovely and enjoyable quality. (My personal fave: The Dead Don't Die (Jarmusch's worst movie but when it comes to music, even terrible Jarmusch is still better than everything else)) My pick: Little Women

Makeup/Hair
Not sure why 1917 is in here, they mostly wear clunky helmets and sweat their asses off--not once while watching this movie was I thinking hair and makeup--but this is what happens when a title rolls heavy into Oscar night. Joker and Judy are more reasonable choices here, I suppose, and Maleficent is as well. But I thought Bombshell's hair and makeup was among the best I've seen in years, Charlize Theron was utterly transformed and that's impressive. (My personal fave: The Lighthouse (not a particularly good movie, but visually it was a great piece of work and the hair and makeup really made a difference)). My pick: Bombshell

Costume
Jojo Rabbit, Little Women and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood display a wide range of looks and a variability that was admirable. The Irishman had a ton of characters across a lot of time periods but I didn't notice anything particularly notable about the costuming and Joker had a unique look but a dearth of characters or situations that call for innovative costuming. This category is gonna be, I think, more important than you realize: I got a feeling the winner of this also wins Best Picture. (My fave: Rocketman (dang, no love for the Elton biopic over here?)) My pick: Little Women (but keep an eye on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Production Design
Often this is a category that leaves me scratching my head but this season I get all these choices: they're complicated films that have intricate and specific visual looks to them and that begins on the set. 1917 is a magnificent piece of work because the sheer amount of set that would need to be dressed at any given moment must've been a fuckin' football field! Once Upon a Time in Hollywood had numerous movie-within-movie scenes, which doubles the level of difficulty. Jojo Rabbit is a kid movie's that has to avoid looking like Nazi propaganda--not as easy it sounds! The Irishman had a wide variety of sets across time periods and ethnicities, etc., and just a mammoth number of scenes. Parasite is all about the differences between two worlds--which means it has to create two entirely different worlds, one of which gets (*spoiler alert*) pretty well destroyed. This is a 'cascade' category: often this goes to the Best Picture winner but I think this stays within the sidebar technical achievement cascade. (Personal fave: Midsommar, The Lighthouse, The Last Black Man in San Francisco all stood out to me) My pick: 1917 (could be Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Editing
The fact that 1917 isn't here is the eye-opener (yeah, I get it it looks like it's got no editing...that's how fuckin' staggeringly great the editing was!), and this would've been an easy win for 1917, too. Oh well. Ford v Ferarri features excellent editing (not merely a variety of action scenes but a wide complexity of dialogue scenes, as well), but Jojo Rabbit and Joker and Parasite are kinda puzzling choices: they're fine films but nothing about the editing seemed to be the real cornerstone of any of these films. I think this statue has the name Thelma Schoonmaker already etched on it--removing 1917 from the running pretty much tells you the Academy already knows where this is going. (Personal fave: Uncut Gems (lot of handheld camera, lot of action, lot of characters, lot of stuff going on at all times, this was really well put together)) My pick: The Irishman

Cinematography
I had three of the nominees in my top five (I had Midsommar and Uncut Gems over Joker and The Irishman), so I feel like I get where the Academy is going here. Okay, here's the point where I think I should lay out my main Oscars thesis: I don't think any of the obvious front runners (1917, The Irishman, Joker, Parasite) win Best Picture. I think it goes to either Little Women or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. That said, I think 1917 wins a ton of awards but not the big prize, so does Cinematography hang with 1917's run on the tech awards or is it a precursor to the Best Picture surprise (in which case, keep an eye on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)? There are going to be a lot of awards to keep an eye on this year and this could be one of them. (Personal fave: 1917) My pick: 1917

International Feature
Feels like Parasite is a slam dunk over here, but don't sleep on Pain & Glory or Honeyland. That said, Almodovar has had his Oscar glory in the past and I think Honeyland wins Best Documentary, so...yeah, I've already talked myself out of this not being a slam dunk. (Personal fave: Parasite) My pick: Parasite

Animated Feature
I dunno...I'll go with I Lost My Body, simply because it's foreign and weird and not one of these typical juggernauts. Toy Story 4 was a fine film, Missing Link surprised all by picking up the Golden Globe, the How to Train Your Dragon franchise just keeps rolling along, (I don't know what Klaus is), any of those could win. I'm going with the critical darling that's already on Netflix, I just feel like more voters had probably had a chance to catch up with it. (Personal fave: Toy Story 4 and I Lost My Body are the only animated films I saw this year, tough to choose) My pick: I Lost My Body

Original Screenplay
This is an interesting category. Everyone's favorite edgy foreign film (Parasite), everyone's favorite (faux) edgy popcorn flick (Knives Out), the technical achievement of the year (1917), everyone's favorite previously decorated screenwriter (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) and everyone'd favorite previously un-decorated screenwriter (Marriage Story). This would be a great place to throw a chip at Parasite or Tarantino (I think a nomination is all Knives Out will get or that 1917 really deserves), but I think the storyline of husband and wife each taking home Screenplay awards is too delicious to pass up, I got to take Noah Baumbach to win. (Personal fave: Parasite) My pick: Marriage Story

Adapted Screenplay
Wow, these nominees are all over the place! Joker made a bunch of money and had its moment as a cultural thing but personally it did nothing for me and I see no reason why it even got this nomination. The Two Popes is a fine little off-Broadway play (though those Vatican interiors popped much better than anything at your local playhouse), but did anything really happen in their discussions? Was anything illuminated or explained or investigated? No. It was just two old dudes shooting the shit for two hours--again, fine for a play but not the most captivating film of the year. Jojo Rabbit is a tricky piece of work and I think the creators did an excellent job walking all the various tightropes, it is a fine film (just outside of my top ten) and one of the finer adapted screenplays of the year, but just short of a win, I'd say. The Irishman, too, comes with a lot of off-screen baggage about the veracity of any of this story, but I was bowled over by the film itself and a great screenplay really helps out and this would be a worthy winner. But, again, I can't help being sucked in by the husband/wife duo taking home Oscars and they're both totally worthy. What Greta Gerwig does with the original material shows an amazing amount of depth and understanding and it all went into the finished product. (Personal fave: Little Women) My pick: Little Women

Director
This is another one of those categories where the inclusion of Joker is mystifying to me. Yeah, I get it: everyone liked it more than me. But the Academy took Todd Phillips over the Safdie Brothers? Over Great Gerwig and Noah Baumbach? Over James Mangold? I get that it made a bunch of money but its cultural moment has already passed, hasn't it? This nomination just seems like a waste to me. Likewise with the Tarantino nomination: I don't see him having much of a chance of winning, so throwing him in there instead of reaching for a first-timer feels like a missed opportunity (unless...). Bong, Mendes and Scorsese were my top three of the season and I have to assume the Academy agrees with me and since I don't think any of these three win Best Picture, it becomes a choice between 1917's sweep of the tech awards or a chance to fete a long-underappreciated director, Bong Joon-Ho. (Personal fave: Parasite) My pick: I'm going with Parasite

Actor
Jonathon Pryce is clearly just a throw-in (nice to reward actors for making films with zero box office potential) and I think Dicaprio is too (does anyone really think he's gonna win for this?). As is Banderas, who is fine in the film but I didn't think him superlative. Nor did I think that of Joaquin Phoenix, who has been gobbling up all the run-up awards and seems likely win this one. I think Phoenix is fine in Joker but he's not doing anything I haven't seen him do before (the Academy has missed chances in the past to honor him, feels like they're not going to miss the chance this year). My choice would be Adam Driver because he really gets to the heart of something seriously complicated in Marriage Story (and because pound for pound he's arguably the MVP actor of the last decade) but I don't think that happens. (Personal fave: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)) My pick: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Actress
Cynthia Erivo is a fine young talent and I think she'll pick up an Oscar for Best Song, but here she's clearly in 5th place. Saoirse Ronan has become one of the top actresses in the game at the moment and she's really great in this movie. Charlize Theron transforms in Bombshell (though I would've put her in Supporting Actress). Scarlett Johanson is also really good in a way we haven't seen before in Marriage Story. And Rene Zellweger is piling up the run-up awards for her amazing turn in Judy. I liked all of these choices (though I would've squeezed Lupita N'Yongo (Us) in here somewhere), so this category feels as wide open as any because I don't see any impact on Best Picture from this category. (Personal fave: Zellweger (Judy)) My pick: Rene Zellweger (Judy)

Supporting Actor
I don't get this category this year. Of these only Pacino and Pitt were in my top five, so including Tom Hanks for a Mister Rogers movie nobody saw and Anthony Hopkins for a Pope Benedict movie nobody saw makes no sense to me, though I guess I'm more lenient of just wanting to have Joe Pesci in the house again. But, dude, how do you leave out Timothe Chalemet (Little Women) or even John Lithgow (Bombshell)? Tom Hanks...why? What are you doing, Academy? If you really wanna reach for something, then why not nominate Bob Oedenkirk (Long Shot), which is a tougher performance than it looks like? Everyone thinks Pitt is going to win and that's fine, but the Academy really could've made these selections more interesting. (Personal fave: Timothe Chalamet (Little Women)) My pick: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Supporting Actress
The odds-on favorite seems to be Laura Dern (Marriage Story), but couldn't she have won for Little Women? And I liked Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit but that doesn't overshadow her performance in Marriage Story. And while I liked Margot Robbie in Bombshell, my favorite supporting actress performance this season was actually Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. (I liked Florence Pugh but suddenly I'm bummed I didn't catch Fighting With My Family this year) I didn't see Richard Jewell but Kathy Bates is always reliable and as she's won before, I suspect she's just here to round out the nominees. I gotta go with Dern here because I think Jojo Rabbit was built for nominations, not wins, and because I think Bombshell was actually not a particularly good movie, hard to see Robbie stealing an award for that here. (Personal favorite: Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) (part of the original complaint of this movie is that Robbie doesn't do much but I disagree: her job is to be angelic! Not easy to pull off and she pulls it off so well that audiences didn't even seem to notice--that's a great performance!)) My pick: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

Best Picture
Okay, here we go. The clear favorites all come with strong resumes: Parasite won the Palm D'or at Cannes, Joker won the Golden Lion at Venice, 1917 won the BAFTA, and The Irishman topped the Nat'l Board of Review, NY Film Critics and Hollywood Film Critics. But I don't think any of these titles will win. I think it's a race between Little Women (a really really good women's film that has quietly made a shit ton of money) and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Tarantino's most innocuous film and one that seemed like an also-ran from the moment it dropped, but one that even the most skeptical secretly loved). Ford v Ferarri is a fine film but a forgotten once, Jojo Rabbit needed nominations to cement its legitimacy but actually winning the big awards doesn't seem likely to me and Marriage Story is a respectable piece of work but not an enjoyable one, not one the Academy will feel the need to hold up to posterity. And back to the frontrunners: 1917 is a fine technical achievement that will win a ton of awards but not the big prize, Parasite is everyone's favorite talking point but the Foreign Language Oscar was invented for this very occurrence, Joker was a big hit but I think it gets completely shut out (with the possible exception of Phoenix) and The Irishman is Netflix's big get and nothing more. When voters are looking over these choices there are too many obvious choices to pick the right one, I think people will go back to the films they really loved this year and I suspect that's a choice between mild mannered Tarantino and up-and-comer Greta Gerwig steadily accruing respect while doing it the right way. Tough to choose, actually, but I'm gonna go with Little Women. (Personal favorite: Apollo 11 was my favorite film of the year--a movie about a time when people used to set out to do things and then they did them! That said, I adored Parasite and thought The Irishman was a fucking masterpiece)) My pick: Little Women

Recap
I think the Academy Awards will look a bit like the recent Super Bowl: the first 3/4 are gonna be all 1917 and in the final quarter will be no 1917. 1917, like The Revenant, is a technical marvel, a compulsively watchable movie simply because of its stunning visual style; but, also like The Revenant, it isn't a groundbreaking story or a Best Picture. I think 1917 will dominate the tech awards and I don't see something like Ad Astra sneaking in and getting wins, 1917 is the dominant tech film of this season. But once we get down to the fun awards, 1917 will disappear and won't reappear as a variety of other titles move in to shine. A coupla locks: Parasite will win Best Foreign and The Irishman will win Best Editing and I really like Harriet's chance of taking Best Song. Otherwise, it'll mostly be 1917 (with an eye on Little Women and/or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood stealing awards along the way), until we get to the acting categories and then the variability of this season will begin to stand out.

Outside of the overwhelming love I don't understand for Joker, I think this awards ceremony is relatively free of obvious snubs outside of missing an Editing nod for 1917 (that was an easy one, guys), acting nods for Lupita N'Yongo (Us) and Timothe Chalamet (Little Women) and, wait--no Costume nomination for Rocketman? I'm a little surprised that were no nods for The Last Black Man in San Francisco though I'm not surprised the Academy is not quite ready to anoint the Uncut Gems or Midsommar crews just yet (they'll be back, those crews are chocked full of badasses) and while Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) is ready for some love I think she's got many more chances on the way. I liked Ford v Ferarri more than most and I'm a little surprised Ad Astra was such an afterthought but all in all I thought 2019 was a good, not great, year for movies and I think the Oscars are gonna spread the love around--that is, after 1917 grabs itself a handful, I think there will be some surprises later on in the show. All right, let's find out.