2017 NBA Draft (the Lottery)

As usual, I'm late to the party. I was at the party, I just had to split for a while. But I'm back now and I'm ready to throw in my two cents on the highlight of the post-Finals social season: the Draft. I'll start with the first 14 picks, then go team by team after that.

1 Sixers -- Markelle Fultz (Washington)
The most rock solid #1 pick since Anthony Davis? Fultz emerged fairly early in the NCAA season as the best player and stayed that way all through the workout phase before the Draft. The buzz is Danny Ainge had some question about whether Fultz was the man but I doubt that. I was among those a little surprised that the Celtics only got a single extra 1st round pick to go with #3, but Ainge was probably not willing to absorb salary and a choice btw Lakers 2018 or Sac 2019 is pretty appealing, those are both gonna pretty sorry squads, and with Nets 2018 in the back pocket, no need to be greedy, foregoing a bigger haul is a prudent avoidance of gluttony, dead salary can kill the growth. And for the Sixers, they gave up a good pick but its a reasonable price to get the guy everybody wanted (and get the last piece in that sterling silver starting rotation they've been saving up for all these years). Fultz, Covington, Simmons, Saric, Okafor (why does everyone leave him out?) and Embiid is a pretty exciting nucleus. Oh, they'll still suck next year but the East is getting East-ier with each free agent heading for the sunset, the Sixers are not that far from challenging for a playoff spot.

2 Lakers -- Lonzo Ball (UCLA)
Personally I'm not as high on Lonzo as the general consensus. He's got a good feel for the game, loves to pass the ball and isn't afraid to fill it up when need be; but I think his jumper is suspect and that won't get better against NBA defenders (I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with the notion that my #2 cornerstone PG of the future could easily get his ass handed to him by KJ McDaniels but I ain't a Laker fan).  If he's good, he could be really great, though, his upside is pretty up there so I guess I don't fault the choice.

3 Celtics -- Jaysun Tatum (Duke)
I was pretty sure the Celtics would trade this pick, either for more future picks or maybe as a piece in a blockbuster. I thought more people would want to take a chance on Josh Jackson (thought Jonathon Isaac had a chance to be the guy that jumps at the last second maybe here at #4), and if they had selected Jackson I think that would've signaled a trade to come. I didn't think much about Tatum here but once they selected him, yeah, he makes perfect sense, don't know why I didn't see it earlier. He's kinda the perfect bookend to Jaylen Brown, a good scorer in the mid-range, something the Celtics could use a little of. And while he doesn't look to be a great defender perhaps his presence allows Jaylen to bust out as a smothering D guy, they are a tantalizing combo. I think this is a good pick and if the Celtics swing and miss on all their big game hunts and return pretty much the same core, just adding Tatum and getting Jaylen deeper into the main rotation, they should still be sturdy enough to allow Isiah and Horford to continue aging like fine wines. They still look one big move away from really challenging Lebron/Kyrie/Love but in 2 years they gap should shrink a bit and with only the most minimal roster filling, this will look like a successful summer.

4 Suns -- Josh Jackson (Kansas)
I thought he was the best prospect in the draft. A little surprised there wasn't more buzz at the top of the draft about him. I think he's an insane athlete, good instincts, reminds me of Marcus Smart but probably a better player, that sounds pretty good to me. In the right environment, he becomes the next Iguodala or Jimmy Butler. Phoenix is probably a good place for him to churn some minutes and get some exposure without having the pressure of winning. The Suns play fun basketball (that generally comes up short in the end) and he'll be an entertaining player, I think he could have a Blake Griffin-ish highlight reel rookie season and be a big star over night.

5 Kings -- De'Aaron Fox (Kentucky)
Fox is a fascinating PG prospect (personally I see him as Denis Shroeder but a better mid-range scorer, maybe a better passer, more reliable scorer than Shroeder) and I think this is a solid pick. But the Kings are still the Kings and won't be good any time soon no matter who they picked.

6 Magic -- Jonathon Isaac (Florida State)
I think Isaac is the intriguing talent that could be great or nothing at all. I suspect its all about the environment he finds himself in and there the Magic could either be awful or great. I don't think the Magic will be any good at all next year, but if they use the anonymity to just play ball and develop, then Orlando may be perfect for Isaac. I don't see the Magic even trying to be good any time soon. I don't understand any of their moves for the last 2 years or so but this seems like a good pick for them. He might be really good or he may be another wasted Magic draft pick. We'll see by the time that rookie contract is up.

7 Bulls -- Lauri Markannen (Arizona)
The Sixers-Celtics #1 pick deal was a few days before the draft (and the pick itself was a fait accompli) so it wasn't a draft day surprise. The #7 pick is the first big draft day move: Wolves swapping #7, Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine for Jimmy Butler and #16; I was surprised by the move but absolutely stunned by the inclusion of #16, too. I thought the Bulls could've done better anyway but giving a 1st round pick in a good draft when they should be trying to get cheaper made no sense to me. But then again, like the Magic, I have no idea what their plan is. So I should not have been shocked when they took Markannen (a kid who utterly disappeared in the NCAA tourney this year). I guess the upside of Markennen is pretty good, but what are the chances he gets there with the Bulls? At best isn't Markennen maybe the next Mirotic? I like Mirotic as much as the next guy but not in this draft. Suddenly his upside doesn't look good and without Jimmy Butler the Bulls' upside doesn't either. Weird move all the way around: could've gotten more in the deal, could've taken a higher prospect with the pick, and gave away a shot another young cheap talent to develop. Didn't get this at all.

8 Knicks -- Frank Ntilikina (France)
Knicks conspiracy theory: the Knicks really wanted the French PG but knew he would get booed, so they concocted a plan for Phil Jackson to sign an extension, make the pick, make a ass of himself by pumping up the Lativian Gangbanger and then splitting? I mean, that's basically what happened, but I'm suggesting it was pre-meditated. Phil Jax was paid a huge ass bonus to be the lightning rod for questionable choices when, in the end, Dolan got the exact team he wanted (well as soon as he hires David Griffin and ditches Carmelo). So the Knicks have a legit star to build around with a non-English speaking PG to be an exciting athlete who doesn't talk much. Once D Rose and Carmelo have left town, there will be money to spend, 2 stars to build around, and a coupla years of top 10 picks to find another gangbanger. Man, its the expensive way to go but New Yorkers are just like that I guess.

9 Mavs -- Dennis Smith (NC State)
Smith and Rick Carlyle are either get along famously or they're gonna hate each other; either way it should be fun to watch. Mavs need everything, a good, athletic, chip-on-his-shoulder PG is nice thing to go with Dirk and Nerlens. Like Isaac at #7: this is either a steal or the thing that destroys the Mavs for a decade....you know....one or the other.

10 Blazers -- Zach Collins (Gonzaga)
Rather than taking Malik Monk at #10 to go with De'Aaron Fox, the Kings instead trade #10 for #15 and #20; obviously I love putting Fox and Monk together (w/ Cauley-Stein, too), but the Kings need everything and I kinda like getting Justin Jackson at #15 and Harry Giles at #20, can't complain too much though they may well have out-thought themselves on this deal. Blazers get a big white guy down low just to thwart the Hornets getting him at #11. (OMG, do you realize how far over the cap the Blazers are? Fuck, man, they need to be selling not buying, giving not taking, breathing up every available smidge of oxygen) I have no sense for what Collins can do or how he benefits the Blazers. Can he be 3 people for 1/10 the cost of 1 person? Then he's got a future in Portland!

11 Hornets -- Malik Monk (Kentucky)
At this point its easy to call this the steal of the draft. Monk probably should've gone #7 to Bulls (or Wolves) or #8 to Knicks so he's a gift for the Hornets at #11. I've never been the biggest fan of Dwight Howard (after all these years he's still a project on offense) or Kemba (electrifying but not enough of a scorer or playmaker to really lift a team) or MKG (I love the kid but I never really knew what his game was, great motor guy but I'm not sure his role) or even Monk (he'll been unbelievable on some nights but just as often you'll forget he's on the court). I've also never been as enamored of Coach Cliff as everyone else and I think MJ's ego makes it pretty well impossible for him to properly judge talent, so I think the Hornets have a very good chance of being straight awful next year. But all that said, I actually kinda like the combo of all these guys, if they come out like The Expendables. then lure in Boogie at the deadline, they might just come out of nowhere. And Monk might be Rookie of the Year. More likely none of this works and they'll be back here in the #10 range next year but this could turn out kinda fun.

12 Pistons -- Luke Kennard (Duke)
Sure, why not? Personally I would've gone with either Terrence Ferguson or Harry Giles (I just think the upside on both is higher) but Kennard is a reasonable pick here. I think ultimately he's somewhere between TJ McConnell and Joe Ingles: better scorer than TJ, quicker the Ingles. A decent scorer, decent playmaker, decent handle, decent feel for the game, thoroughly decent player. Put the plant in the right soil and it grows big and tall; wrong pot and its dead before you cash the next paycheck. I'm not a big fan of what Stan Van has going on in Detroit so this pick was always gonna be a wild crap shoot.

13 Jazz -- Donovan Mitchell (Louisville)
The Jazz have a good run of draft success lately, I think Mitchell could give them relief if Rodney Hood leaves (or becomes trade bait). I like their coach and the environment, Mitchell should fit well with Rubio and (fingers crossed) Gordon Hayward. Maybe he turns to nothing (they uncharacteristically gave up on Trey Lyles, though I generally kinda liked what I saw), but I can see him fitting right in over the next 3-4 years.

14 Heat -- Bam Adebayo (Kentucky)
As a regular UK basketball watcher, sometimes I see prospects that are tentative at the college game that I think will be more uninhibited and intuitive at the next level. I think Bam could be one of those guys. He reminded me of Dwight Howard, both good and bad: should be a helluva shotblocker, rebounder and down low defender and while he had better offensive moves and instincts than Dwight, Bam played tentative, didn't trust instincts enough and in the end may be similarly stiff to Dwight. But I think he'll bust out and find himself more comfortable at the next level. I think in a platoon with Whiteside, he'll be just fine for 10-15 minutes of being a tough load down low. He's a big kid, won't get moved around too easily, should score a little bit too. I don't think he'll reinvent basketball but I think in a coupla years he could be a pretty reliable guy down low and Miami is probably a good place for him.