NCAA Sweet Sixteen

Coming into this tourney I thought there was a clear top tier in college basketball (with their pre-season rankings): Gonzaga (#14), Kansas (#3), Villanova (#4), Duke (#1), North Carolina (#6), UCLA (#16), Kentucky (#2), Louisville (#13). And a clear 2nd tier: Baylor (NR), Arizona (#10), Florida State (#28), Oregon (#5), Purdue (#15), Butler (#33), West Virginia (#20), Florida (#37). (How was Baylor not ranked in the pre-season top 50?)

I thought going in that the opening weekend would be pretty mellow on upsets but then the Sweet Sixteen on would be an all-time classic demolition derby.  I was kinda close: Villanova, Duke, Louisville and Florida State forgot to make the trip but all the rest are here. And on any given day, any one of those teams above can win it all (or get run out of the gym). Of the interlopers: Wisconsin (#9) and Michigan (#42) just met in the Big 10 Championship, South Carolina (NR) bounced in and out of the top 25 all year long and Xavier (#7) was a pre-season top 10 squad that suffered some untimely injuries but played a tough schedule. So none of the 'Cinderellas' are particularly out of left field.

Who comes out alive? I filled out two brackets and ended up with two entirely different Final Fours, so the difference between the remaining teams is minimal, man. I think all eight games are interesting match-ups.

Wisconsin-Florida: Wisconsin played grind it out defense, Florida plays crank it up offense. If Florida is hot I think they'll win but if they can't get going Wisconsin will swallow them up. I suspect Florida is the better team.  

Baylor-South Carolina: Baylor is not terribly flashy but they're a consistent team, they're gonna grind their way through this game the way they do every other game and they should be better than South Carolina. I loved the way Carolina finished off Duke: they stepped up and made their free throws. Every coach needs to whip out the last 10 minutes of that game to show the importance of fundamental basketball. If South Carolina can score as efficiently as they did against Duke, then they can sneak past Baylor, who has a solid average but probably won't hit home runs. I'll take Baylor.

Gonzaga-West Virginia: Gonzaga is arguably the best team in the nation this season: reliable down low, explosive on the perimeter, they have veteran smarts and good athletes. But West Virginia plays a tricky irritating defense that catches even the steadiest squads off guard. I think Gonzaga is the better team and should win the game but a West Virginia upset would not surprise me.

Xavier-Arizona: I don't really know either of these teams, haven't watched Xavier at all. I watched Arizona over St. Mary's and for the most part I was impressed with St. Mary's but they ran out of gas near the end, so I know Arizona is deep enough to hang with a good team and come out the other side. But I also would've thought that about Florida State...and Xavier just dropkicked them. Xavier is the house money-est of all these teams, I'll stick with them to throw Arizona for a loop.

Kansas-Purdue: Caleb Swanigan has really impressed me so far in this tournament, looking forward to see him in the NBA next year (reminds me of Marc Gasol, Chris Webber and...yeah, I'll say it....Arvydas Sabonis, the ultimate white whale of pro basketball). He's got size, skill and poise...unfortunately I can't say that I've been terribly impressed with anyone else in a Purdue uniform. My gut is Swanigan will bring it and really shine out but Kansas will be the better team and move on. Coming in I thought Kansas was...not the most likely to win but the least likely to not win...that make sense? They're a veteran squad that does what they need to do to win the game and my pick to win it all (well, my non-Kentucky pick, obviously). As much as I love Swanigan's game, he can't do it himself against a top flight squad like Kansas.

Oregon-Michigan: Oregon wasn't at their best coming into the tourney while Michigan had just finished an improbable run through the Big Ten tournament after a so-so regular season. Michigan is rising, Oregon is treading water, which makes them about even. This game is a total toss-up and I don't know either of them well enough to have a sense of how they match-up. I'll take...Michigan?

Butler-North Carolina: I thought UNC got lucky against Arkansas, a coupla bad breaks (and questionable calls) doomed Arkansas. UNC has the talent and the depth but (*ahem*) those ACC teams play a little loose for my tastes. Butler is gonna play their game the right way and leave it on the court, whereas UNC may shine out or they may have their minds on other things. The average favors Butler, the high/low favors/dooms UNC. I'll take the average, I think Butler wins this game.

UCLA-Kentucky: This is the one everyone's waiting for. Kentucky has the sloppy habit of getting down early and digging their way out; they've been able to pull that off many times this year but UCLA is one of this season's opponents where they were not able to pull off the comeback. UCLA didn't blow out UK in that game but they held the lead throughout. *hater talk* I don't like this UCLA team as much as most people do. Ball can be great but he can throw it away too and as good as their outside shooting is, it can dry up. UK plays tenacious D and has an explosive offense. I dunno, I am a homer, but I'll take UK in the re-match.

Thornwell (South Carolina) and Swanigan (Purdue) are probably my two favorite players so far. We'll see who comes up big from here.