Academy Awards

Might as well make my Oscar predictions. The Oscars to me are a like a Jets-Browns game in mid-October: I don't wanna watch it but I do wanna know the outcome. And I still wanna see if I can see if I can guess the winner (though I skip the shorts because...well, I usually don't get to see them and they ought to be in a separate ceremony anyway). This year will be kinda tough because frankly I thought it was a pretty crappy year. The Oscar bait movies generally left me cold, none of the big summer titles impressed me and I thought it was a pretty sorry year for kids' movies. I struggled to make a top ten this year, which makes me excited for next year.

Best Doc -- Normally this is a quiet category but OJ: Made in America was easily my favorite film of the year (and the title most likely to endure as a watchable classic film on into the future). What a staggering fucking achievement in editing and story telling and who knew that OJ Simpson led the quintessential American life (poverty, fame, murder, redemption, revenge)? The fact that its a TV movie will earn scorn from some but I think the sheer awesomeness of the film itself will win over enough to earn the award it deserves.

Best Visual Effects -- Last year I thought the Star Wars re-boot would take home a pile of technical awards but mostly they went to the Mad Max re-boot instead. My rationale last year going in was that the Academy would reward boffo box office and my rationale afterwards was that there's plenty of time to give Star Wars movies awards. I think this is one of those opportunities. I liked Rogue One made a huge pile of money without being an irritating force. The only other one I saw was The Jungle Book, which is a hell of a good flick but is really an animated film with a little kid in it. Doctor Strange looked interesting, Deepwater Horizon had some cool looking explosions, Kubo is in fact an animated movie, but I'm betting Rogue One is the title that everyone actually watched and liked.

Best Sound Editing -- And here's where the La La Land onslaught begins. Like it or not, La La Land is a masterful piece of sound editing and thoroughly deserves this award. Also all the other films are basically action movies, I think the musical stands out and wins easily.

Best Sound Mixing -- (Ditto) La La Land (win #2).

Best Original Song -- (*screech*) La La Land seems like the obvious choice here with two nominations to choose from, but I thought those were not the best songs in the movie anyway. I'll go with Moana--can't pass up a chance to get Lin-Manuel on stage.

Best Original Score -- Aaaaaaand we're back. La La Land (win #3) is a pretty easy call on this one. Although personally I thought Moonlight had a killer score, La La Land is a total immersion in the musical form that we haven't seen in an Oscar bait movie since...Chicago (?).

Best Makeup & Hair -- I dunno, I'll say Suicide Squad? There certainly is a lot of hair and makeup in the movie and it seems a clearer choice than the other nominees. (And "Oscar-winning Suicide Squad" just has a such a lovely ring to it)

Best Costumes -- I personally would've gone with Everybody Wants Some!! for best costumes but its not even nominated (why not? It's a period piece like the others). We could throw another one on the pile for La La Land but for this one I'll take Jackie instead (the costumes were the most notable part of the film anyway).

Best Production Design -- Though I thought Hail Caesar was the better film (and more interesting take on Hollywood), I think La La Land takes this one (win #4).

Best Editing -- This one is wide open. They may go with La La Land in the onslaught or this could be the place where they throw a bone to another picture. Though I admired Hell or High Water a great deal, I didn't find the editing to be particularly noteworthy but if you're looking for an underdog, this could be a good chance to reward a movie that deserved more love than in got. I'll go with Moonlight, the film had a startlingly original visual look and this is a good and well-earned place to give it some kudos.

Best Cinematography -- Moonlight could sneak an upset here but I'll go with La La Land (win #5) simply because that opening sequence is pretty amazing.

Best Foreign Film -- The critics having been talking up Toni Erdman all year long but the American public still hasn't gotten much of a look at it and while A Man Called Ove was a likable crowd pleaser, I didn't think it was an award-worthy picture. I'll go with The Salesman because its an easy thumb in the eye of our new President's foreign policy without being terribly controversial. I don't know if anyone saw the film (though I am an admirer of Asghar Farhadi) but seeing the winners accept their award by satellite will speak volumes free of Michael Moore or Molotov cocktail.

Best Animated Feature -- Three foreign nominees and no Finding Dory (the 2nd highest grossing film of the year)? Interesting. Another chance to bring Lin-Manual to the stage or throw a bone to Zootopia, a huge springtime hit (though I found it to be a twisted paranoid thriller of a kids' movie). I'll take Moana, it was lovable and had a lot of Oscar-friendly elements.

Best Adapted Screenplay -- Everyone's gonna wanna vote for Moonlight but then they're gonna see Fences and want that one, too.  Tough call but I'll take the Moonlight crowd over the Fences crowd.

Best Original Screenplay -- Personally I thought Hell or High Water was the best of these five films (and the best original screenplay to boot) but this is the chance to choose Manchester By the Sea over La La Land. I think Lonergan gets the trophy.

Best Director -- La La Land is a very easy choice (win #6). If Manchester By the Sea has any momentum here's where it comes into effect but I think the big mo stays with la la.

Best Supporting Actress -- This is a two horse race: Michelle Williams and Viola Davis. Could go either way, they're both well respected and long overdue, I'll take Viola Davis.

Best Supporting Actor -- This category is wide open. Folks like Mike Shannon and this could be a good time to anoint him but honestly that movie is terrible (and he's not particularly noteworthy in it). Jeff Bridges already won his Oscar (and Ben Foster should've been the nominee from that movie anyway). Hedges is the representative from a popular (but horribly muted) film but no one knows who he is and he is strangely minimal to the action of the film. Did anyone see Lion? I think I'll go with Mahershala Ali because people loved Moonlight and this is a chance to give it a prize.

Best Actress -- The money is on Isabelle Huppert but I thought that movie was...just weird and I didn't really understand her performance. I love Huppert as much as the next guy but Meryl Streep's 14th best performance (that seems about right for Florence Foster Jenkins, a film I really liked btw) is still way more eye opening and invigorating. I think folks admired Natalie Portman in Jackie but, man, that movie....that movie is dumb...just dumb. Did anyone see Loving? I'll go with Emma Stone (win #7 for La La Land).

Best Actor -- Casey Affleck got the early buzz but Manchester is the kind of film that does not live up to the overwhelming hype and neither does its lead performance; Denzel is the crowd's best buddy but he's already won and Fences wasn't much a hit; Viggo is really great but did anyone see Captain Fantastic?; I first noticed Andrew Garfield in 99 Homes last year (he and Mike Shannon were both more award-worthy last year than this year....that no one saw), but this is just a pat on the head nomination. I'll take Ryan Gosling to finally win one and to keep the La La Land avalanche coming (win #8).

Best Picture -- La La Land (win #9). Along with Best Director, this is is the easiest pick of the night. The film was...not bad...and for what it was trying to do, that is plenty enough successful to earn a big pay day on Oscar night (especially in such a weak season).

The rundown: La La Land (9), Moonlight (3), Moana (2), (1) each for Manchester By the Sea, Fences, OJ: Made in America, Rogue One, Jackie, Suicide Squad, The Salesman.