Next Wave of Primaries

Democrats
On Tuesday there will be primary elections in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois and Missouri. Sanders is so far behind in delegate count that coming close in any given election isn't nearly good enough and with the Republican side winnowing down, it feels to me like he's outlived his purpose of giving Hillary a challenge. Hillary isn't the most lovable liberal candidate but she is the most politically savvy and I am confident her support is well positioned and well supported across the nation. Even if Sanders hangs around and wins every once in a while, he's still too far behind to catch up.

I'll take Hillary in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, I'll take Sanders in Missouri, and a dead heat in Illinois (which still vastly favors Hillary). Hillary piles on to her lead on delegates and super delegates. I guess Sanders makes it through the next 6 primaries later on this month, there's no reason for him to quit; if he's popular enough to keep getting money out of people then he may as well keep going. But his chances of winning are virtually zero.

Republicans
This is the (next) big day for the Republicans eager to see a brokered convention.  If Rubio takes Florida, Kasich takes Ohio, and someone can block Trump in Illinois, then the race continues; if Trump wins those states, I'd say the game is over, not much opportunity left for the others. A mix results in more of the same.

The last few weeks were about the emergence of Cruz (or the lack of emergence of Rubio). I thought after South Carolina, with the exit of Jeb Bush, that Rubio would get a chance to shine; but if I was paying better attention, I would've realized that the last round of states favor Cruz, who made the most of them. The fact that the 'establishment' prefers Rubio to Cruz or Trump is only making it harder for Rubio but he scored well in the last coupla contests in DC and Wyoming. If Rubio wins Florida, he's got a chance to get something going; but if he doesn't, he's got no hope left and will have to step aside to give Cruz a chance. Trump is still in the lead but not commandingly so, Cruz could still best him if this race gets all the California but probably only if Rubio and Kasich get out of the way. Likewise, Kasich must win Ohio to make any difference at all.

What will happen? The polls in Florida have Trump winning big but as we saw in Michigan, the polls can be wrong--waaaaay wrong!--in a year all about the insurgents. It comes down to north of Orlando (should be firm Trump supporters) and south of Orlando (Rubio's stomping ground) and whether the Rubio benefactors want to keep his career alive. If Rubio loses in Florida, he is certainly out of this year's race but suddenly, too, it casts a shadow on his future as Florida's Senator. If his supporters turn out, he could win and look like a hero going forward; if they don't turn out, he loses and looks shaky until he takes his next election. (If Rubio's crowd goes for Cruz. then Rubio might ought to sell his house) Trump only needs a simple majority to take all the delegates and if so Rubio is out. I don't think Trump wins as big as he's leading right now, but I think he wins big enough to comfortably cast off Rubio.

Kasich has a much firmer lead in Ohio, largely because I think he has a better control over his home than Rubio has over his and also because I think there is a more salient anti-Trump audience. So Kasich wins Ohio but that doesn't feel like enough to really give him a boost across the country...unless Rubio gets out of the way leaving Kasich to be the anti-Trump and the anti-Cruz simultaneously. I think Cruz comes in 2nd, Trump 3rd.

I think Trump easily takes North Carolina and Missouri, squeaks by in Illinois and Florida and comes in a distant third in Ohio. I'll say Rubio finishes a tight 2nd in Florida and a distant 3rd in Missouri and Illinois. I'll say Cruz finishes 2nd in North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio and 3rd in Florida and Ohio. Kaisch will win Ohio, finishes a tight 3rd in Illinois. Trump is the big winner, Cruz is the clear runner-up, Rubio goes home and Kasich hangs around and tries to look like the adult in the room for a few more weeks.