Playoff Prediction: Bulls over Wizards in 7

Update 4.27.14 -- Wizards rolled the Bulls today in Game Four to take a 3-1 lead.  I'm rescinding my original prediction and calling this series over.  The Bulls could take another game but they just do not have enough scoring to win 3 more games holding their ground against the Wizards onslaught.

I originally thought that while the Wizards had up-and-coming talent, the Bulls play hard enough, efficient enough and have enough veteran savvy to win enough games to get to Game Seven, where you gotta go with the veterans on home court.  I was pessimistic about a serious run by the Bulls simply because they played so hard throughout the regular season that they would be worn down come playoff time, but I thought they had enough pure moxy and frustrating defense to slip past a youthful Wizards team.  If the Bulls encountered trouble along the way (which they would because the Wizards are sneaky good) then they would just entrench the pesky D, make adjustments and transform themselves as needed.  But how do they transform when they're already playing as hard as they can?  Do you play Jimmy Butler for only forty...six minutes a game?  (In geopolitical terms: if we're already sanctioning Iran then how do we sanction them more?)  And where does the scoring come from?  In today's game it felt like Kirk Hinrich was working so hard to take mediocre shots that failed to go in.  The Bulls offense never got going and certainly didn't have a second gear to kick into.

I wanted to take the Wizards--that was the upset d'jour pick of the cool kids--before this series started but I went with the Bulls because in the NBA the veterans usually find a way get by (and I took the Raptors over the Nets, so I figured I was already taxing that paradigm).  But the Bulls have no scoring, man, just none.  Mike Dunleavy is carrying them right now and that's not a recipe for the future.  I can see the Bulls playing with pride and taking Game Five back in Chicago but I do not see the Bulls winning two more games--certainly not three.  Also, I'm curious to see the Wizards in the next round.  The more I watch this team the more I like them.

Wizards: Wall, Nene, Beal, Webster, Miller, Porter, Rice are under contract next year which leaves them well under the cap.  Gortat, Ariza and Booker play big minutes, how hard do the Wizards try to bring them back next year?  I like what each of those guys bring and while they're not breaking the bank next year, all three will want raises.  Do the Wiz pass on those raises to the guys they know or take that money to the free agent casino?  What to make of Otto Porter, how does he fit into next year's plan?  Does Porter take attention from Ariza or Booker or both?  I suspect they bring back Gortat, bring back Booker if he takes paltry money and let Ariza move on (wonder if there's room for him and Shaun Livingston to wear Knick uniforms next year?); this takes the Wiz out of contention for a big time free agent and they've moved their first round pick to the Suns.  They've got a good core to build on, if they can add a cheap energy guy to bring off the bench to platoon with Porter, then there's their replacement (fingers crossed!) for Trevor Ariza.

Playoff Prediction: Raptors over Nets in 6

4.29.14 -- This is my favorite series to watch so far--and that's saying something since this first round has been as wild as any in recent memory.  2-2 after 4 games and I'm not surprised, I knew all these games would be close.  Going into this series I thought the teams were so statistically similar that it would all come down to the 4th quarter play.  Most folks would go with the veterans in a 4th quarter contest but I've been impressed with the Raptors all year and (controversial statement) I think Kyle Lowry is the best player on the floor at any given moment.  Not Deron Williams, not Paul Pierce, certainly not KG (dude, KG has been done for a coupla years now, why do we spend so much time talking about him?).  Lowry is going to be the prized free agent on the market this summer (I'm rooting for the Bobcats to get him) and this series is his place to shine out. That said, I think Demarre DeRozan has been the best player.  He's hitting his jumpers with poise, looking like next year's big bust out star (and without Lowry he and Valanciunas will have the whole team to themselves).

Looking over the box scores I noticed that the Raptors have outscored the Nets in 3 of the 4 4th quarters and 3 of the 4 1st quarters; the Nets have dominated the middle parts of each game.  I think this still favors the Raptors.  Whoever starts and finishes the strongest will win each game, I am convinced.

Am I sticking with Raptors in 6?  Sure, why not?  This series will probably go 7 but I like the Raptors to go up 3-2 after the next game and since each game is an even contest, I'll go ahead and take them to win game 6 back in Brooklyn.  The Paul Pierce era will end quietly and I suspect he'll end up with the Celtics next year or the year after.

Nets: Next year they will welcome back Brook Lopez, say goodbye to Pierce and Livingston, silently fret over where to bury KG's corpse, and hope Williams and Johnson stay healthy and Aundray Blatche takes a step forward.  That roster is still so over-priced its hard to imagine them making any moves next year or going any deeper in the playoffs.  The experiment of over-spending has been a colossal waste of money (but the owner's a multi-gajillionaire so what do I care?) and the luxury cap defiance has hampered them with too many deals that are hard to metabolize.  In two years they'll be better positioned to make moves as KG and Marcus Thornton exit.  The Nets are still pretty good and in a crappy Eastern Conference that's pretty good.  But if 5th was the best they could do with this line-up I can't put them any higher than that next year, unless Lopez and Blatche really dominate.  

Playoff Prediction: Pacers over Hawks in 7

Update 4.27.14 -- This series is so-far-so-good.  I thought the Pacers would struggle because, well, they are struggling.  I assumed that by Game Seven the light would go on and they would realize that they are more talented than the Hawks, they are better than the Hawks and they deserve move on in the playoffs more than the Hawks do.  I did not think the realization would come right away--hell, I thought maybe they could beat the Hawks without even making that realization--so I'm not surprised the series is tied after 4 games.  The Pacers are like that drunk friend that you love but is getting too out of control to still be friends with.  The only solution is a smack in the face, a wake-up call, and I'd like to think the Pacers have enough talent and enough sense to see the light, overcome their losing ways and get back to the elite where they belong.  We'll see.  I guess I still think that they will snap out of it but the Hawks don't suck, man.  When Teague is in prime wheelin' and dealin' mode, he's fun to watch and Paul Millsapp is one of the great underappreciated players in the league right now.  The Pacers are in a dangerous place right now and I'd rather see them get their act together than hold their hand through rehab.

 

Playoff Prediction: Heat over Bobcats in 5

Update 4.24.14 -- My initial thinking was the Bobcats would play hard and steal one (probably game 3) but wouldn't have enough depth to hang for long with the Heat.  I thought the Heat would be gearing up to playoff mode and see the Bobcats as the perfect tune-up for tougher challenges.  Big Al hurt his foot (plantar fasciitis) in the first half of the first game and though he gave good effort in game two (19 points, 14 boards in 40 mins), without a fully functioning Big Al the Bobcats don't really even have a chance to win the one game I thought they could.  The Bobcats are the perfect first round opponent for the Heat: they play hard, you gotta get your game on to win, but they don't have enough talent to challenge deep into the 4th quarter.  The Heat are up 2-0, I think they'll go ahead and wrap it up in Charlotte, get a coupla days off before round two.  I'm not really changing my tune, just amending to point out that without Jefferson, there's not even a glimmer of a chance of a hope of a dream of maybe winning a game.  Kemba's gotta put up like 30 shots a night--and get hot--and get to the foul line--and he's gotta do it all again tomorrow night.  Nah, that ain't happening.  I think the Heat takes this in 4.

Bobcats: Michael Jordan's strategy as GM (seems to me) is that old school mindset of grinding it out in the playoffs, learning how to win games by getting deeper into the post-season, going up against the best year after year.  Most people say a mediocre collection of young talent like the Bobcats would be better off tanking games and getting into the lottery.  But Jordan probably thinks if he's gotta wait for the #4 pick to save his career, then he'd rather play golf year round.  Jordan is developing his own skills as an evaluater of talent, as a team builder, and where he wants to succeed is in the playoffs not the lottery.  The Bobcats 1-12 have a lot of nice players.  And that's nice.  But in the NBA they ain't gonna win too many games or a playoff series.  You gotta have a bedrock star and the Bobcats don't have it. Kemba Walker is a nice filler-upper but not a great one, MKG is a solid young defender but not a great scorer (not a great accumulator of the stats that nerds like me want to see), Zeller has good but not great potential, I like what I see from McRoberts, Douglas-Roberts. Henderson (they could all win rings in Popovich's world) and it feels like the coach is squeezing what he can from this crew; I love Big Al Jefferson, a Renaissance season this year, but he's not their bedrock star of the future just a quality number hanger for the next coupla years.  If I'm the GM of this team I'm pleased to get blasted by Lebron in the first round because now I know I can bring in another free agent, mix up the locker room a little bit, coax another healthy year out of Big Al and the Bobcats might finish 3rd or 4th in a crappy Eastern Conference next year.*  They go into the playoffs next year with home court and some expectations, that's how you make Kemba a star, that's how Big Al finally gets his due, that's how MKG wins Def POY, that's when you start peeling off role players and bring in a guy like Rondo or Zeebo or Pau Gasol (hmmmm....Evan Turner?) to give the squad some gravitas. Playoffs, man, f*** the lottery.

*(Bobcats 3rd next year in the East?  Sure, why not: the Raptors probably won't be as good next year, the Nets will be a different team, the Knicks, Bucks, Celtics, Sixers will still suck, not sure what to expect out of the Pistons or the Bulls or even the Pacers; the Heat will be one of the two best teams guaranteed, the Wizards are coming, the Hawks might be better next year, Cavs and Magic are possible to take off next year.  If the Bobcats get one nice free agent pickup, one or two pieces shuffled in/out, they might look like a playoff-hardened squad ready to take the next step.  Very possible)

Playoff Prediction: Rockets over Blazers in 6

Update 4.26.14 -- Okay this Series caught me way off guard.  My thinking was that the Rockets were solid enough to get past the Blazers, I thought the match-ups were well enough in their favor that they'd win more games (though not enough to compete with anyone else in the West). I thought the Blazers squad was nice but perhaps overachieving, this looks like another edition of the typical good-but-not-great Blazer team that we've seen for most of the last 25 years.  I thought of the match-up thusly: Harden would live at the foul line sapping any deficiency gap he might have against Lillard; Aldridge would probably be better than Howard, Asik, Jones but he wouldn't dominate them so the triumvirate would eventually win out.  But the Blazers aren't falling into Harden's foul traps and Aldridge after two games was, in fact, dominating the Rocket front line.  Blazers win the first two games in Houston.

The Rockets stole a win in Game Three in Portland but I don't see that as an example of the tide turning.  I think the Blazers have shown that if they can stick to their gameplan, than Harden and Howard's weaknesses will be exposed and the Blazers could blitz past them.  I'm shifting from my original perception that the Rockets were (slightly) deeper and more efficient and now buying the narrative that the Blazers have solved those problems and should be able to outscore the Rockets most every night.  I like the Blazers to win the next one and go up 3-1. I'm inclined to take the Blazers in 6 now (even with a loss at home).  The Rockets could come back in 7 but 6 seems impossible.
 

Playoff Prediction: Clippers over Warriors in 7

Update 4.26.14 -- Game One of this series was weird, the refs interjected themselves into the game early and often which led to Griffin and Iguodala spending large chunks of the game on the bench.  The Warriors snuck a win, a mild upset.  The Clippers dominated Game Two, played well enough in Game Three.  Blake Griffin is the MVP so far, building on the growth he showed this season: increasingly better ball handler, plays offense with total confidence these days, making the most of Deandre Jordan's growth.  What can I say?  This series is pretty much what I expected: the Clippers strike me as the more sound team, the Warriors the wild risk/reward squad that can beat anybody anywhere or any given night.  I expect the Warriors to win Sunday, even the Series heading back to LA.  Otherwise this Series seems to be on its original glide path.

Playoff Prediction: Thunder over Grizzlies in 5

(I know I'm a day late on this one but is anyone surprised the Thunder took game one at home?)   Durant is still in MVP-mode, Westbrook will play even angrier than usual (I fear for Patrick Beverly if he has to play Westbrook in the playoffs this year), Ibaka is a better contributor than he's ever been and while the rest of the rotation has some ups (Jackson, Sefolosha, Collison) and downs (Lamb, Thabeet, Fisher), there is enough scoring and rebounding to take out a team like the Grizzlies.

The Grizzlies play a slow-down, grinding style of ball that would threaten a Thunder squad without Westbrook.  But their offense will be largely dependent on Mike Miller and Tayshaun Prince, which I just don't see as the answer.  I like the Grizzlies to make the games sludgy and slow but the Thunder are too potent for that to be too successful.  Indeed, I think the Grizzlies style will make the Thunder even more anxious to score early and often.  I see the Grizzlies trying to dig themselves out of an early deficit in every game without enough firepower to pull that off.

Thunder in 5.  I'll give the Grizzlies a game but even then I suspect it'll require some luck at the end of the game.  I know this is supposed to be the quintessential defense versus offense match-up but I just don't see it.

Playoff Prediction: Spurs over Mavs in 5

The Mavs overachieved this year on the back of Dirk being Dirk and Monta Ellis taking a step forward as an all around basketball player.  There's no reason why this team of leftover veterans should've won 50 games but they did because Coach Carlisle demands defensive intensity and because Dirk is a still a solid bedrock to build on.

That said, the Spurs are a machine, finding another gear after all these years of superior play. Coach Popovich is a master at getting his key players rest and getting his role players to consistently contribute to the rotation.  This team knows what it is, they know how to travel, they know how to close out lesser opponents.

Spurs in 5.  The Mavs have one or two games of shooting out the lights and pushing the Spurs to the edge.  But they don't have enough to challenge for the series.  I've been impressed with Monta Ellis this year, Vince Carter is still an exciting offensive contributor, Shawn Marion still has game.  But there's no clear style at work on the offensive end.  The Mavs will play with pride and they won't hand games to the Spurs, but the Spurs' offensive possessions are much too efficient for the Mavs to compete with.  (For what its worth I would've preferred to see the Mavs play the Thunder and the Spurs play the Grizzlies (or the Suns))

Update 4.27.14 -- The Mavs are up 2-1 after Vince hit a 3 at the buzzer last night in Dallas.  This is intriguing because the Spurs are playing well and still not getting the wins.  Last night the Spurs shot 36-63 on 2-point shots, didn't turn the ball over or commit an inordinate amount of fouls but still couldn't separate from the Mavs.

I realize my earlier take was glib but I stand by it: when the Spurs are efficiently playing Spurs basketball they should win way more often than they lose.  So why are they down right now?  The easy answer is that the Mavs are playing efficiently right now too.  The aforementioned glowing stats for the Spurs were pretty well matched by the Mavs (with a few extra free throws and 3-pointers to make up the difference).  I didn't think the Spurs would dominate but I thought they would be consistently better at all phases of the game than the Mavs.  The complicated answer: more parity in the league than we realized.  The upcoming draft is one of the best ever and a number of teams geared themselves around positioning for draft choices rather than post-season play.  This gave us a deceptive look at this past season: the truly bad teams made themselves truly badder, perhaps inflating the top seeds (all of whom, save the Heat, are struggling right now) and distorting the mid-level teams.  Hey, man, the Hawks aren't bad, the Mavs aren't bad and the Grizzlies are probably the best 7-seed in the history of the game (didn't Drexler-Hakeem win the Championship as a 7 seed?).  Perhaps this season will produce an aberrant amount of upsets.  The Mavs would like to think so.

Whatever the answer, this series is not over and the Mavs have shown they can hang.  The Mavs are playing their game, no new wrinkles, no new adversities to overcome, they just walk it like they talk it.  And they're up on the Spurs, who are playing well.  This shows me the Mavs can hang and this series is almost certainly going 7 games.

All NBA

1^st team

Steph Curry, Chris Paul

Lebron James, Kevin Durant

Joakim Noah

2^nd team

Goran Dragic, James Harden

Blake Griffin, Kevin Love

Deandre Jordan

3^rd team

Kyle Lowry, Tony Parker

Carmelo Anthony, Andre Iguodala

Chris Bosh

And a bonus ten:

Lamarcus Aldridge, Demarcus Cousins, Andre Drummond, Tim Duncan, Paul George, Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Dirk Nowitzki, John Wall

Who'd I leave out? 

End of season awards (and such)

MVP: Kevin Durant.  (2^nd place: everyone else)

Dude, Durant is just sick.  Sick.  Lebron is still a great player but in the weak East he didn't have to be great as the Heat just sorta slagged along all year long.  Who’s next on the list?  Chris Paul missed too many games, the Spurs are too balanced to pick out any one player, Kevin Love is great but has yet to elevate a squad based solely on his own performance (I’ve got a theory on that…), James Harden can score with the best of ‘em but, man, his defense is awful.  Durant is the MVP, there’s really no competition. 

Defensive POY: Joakim Noah

The Bulls were left for dead by their own front office but Coach Thibodeau and Joakim Noah refused to play for a draft pick.  So here they are planning on a deep playoff run even though the depth just isn’t there.  They just might do it too.  Wouldn’t be too shocking at all if they nailed the Pacers in the second round and made the Heat work for every penny in the conference finals.  All because of Noah.  Can’t give him the MVP because his offensive efficiency isn’t explicable by the stats (which are all about offense and not defense) but how do you not acknowledge the driving force of the over-achieving-est team in the league? 

ROY: Michael Carter-Williams

This rookie class was disappointing but remember: Nerlens Noel didn’t play a single game, Anthony Bennett started the season injured and by the time he was healthy the team around him had already imploded, Alex Len was surrounded by guys all competing for Most Improved Player of the Year, Ben McLemore didn’t set the world on fire but he was a contributor on a so-so squad, Georgie Djieng languished on the bench for a team that didn’t bother to notice that he was actually pretty good, and Trey Burke and Victor Oladipo played for teams that weren’t even trying to win ball games.  This season wasn’t about developing young players, it was about tanking and making room for new young players.  This class was disappointing but I think the league around this class was disappointing.  The kids are alright.  Carter-Williams had the most opportunity and did the most with it. 

Coach of the Year: Greg Popovich

Jeff Hornacek, Doc Rivers, Tom Thibodeau, Eric Spoelstra, and Dwayne Casey all had fine years but (to paraphrase Bill Simmons) Pop has mastered the regular season.  #1 seed in a brutal Western Conference and you can’t even tell who the star of the team is.  They get contributions from all over the floor, up and down the bench, despite constant tweaking of the rotation.  Pop knows how to make it interesting, educational and still win games while preparing for the post-season.  As much as people are bored of the Spurs, I love ‘em, I love watching them, I love seeing them win games.  Spurs-Thunder has classic written all over it this year.  

Hornacek got career years out a collection of cast-offs.  Doc Rivers helped his two of his best players to take a step up and has made that Clippers team more dangerous in the playoffs than they’ve ever been.  Thibodeau refused to lose and rode his team to the 3rd seed when his own front office was begging him to tank.  Spoelstra took a lethargic Heat squad to within one game of the #1 seed in the East and is just generally the most underappreciated coach around.  Dwayne Casey won where no one has won before when no one expected him to.  

A modest proposal

There are 30 teams in the NBA, 16 make the playoffs, 14 get left behind.  The 14 non-qualifying squads get ping pong balls corresponding to their horrible records put into a hopper and chosen at random (sorta) to determine the order of the upcoming draft.  Frankly, this system is kinda dumb.  Why not let the game on the court determine who gets what position?

I suggest a system that gives awful teams an advantage without handing them the pathway to the finest young talent; a system where the hard working, almost-good-enough teams get an opportunity to move out of their mediocre draft position.  A one-and-done tournament, 13 games in 4 rounds where the lesser teams get home court advantage but must win on the court to maintain or improve their draft position. 

#1 and #2 get a bye (guaranteeing a drop of no more than 4 spots in draft position) and home court advantage throughout the tourney.  #3-#8 match up against #9-14 where the match-ups seek the closest competition rather than the furthest (3-9, 4-10, 5-11, 6-12, 7-13, 8-14).  Conference affiliation is disregarded.  The higher ranked (most losses) teams get home court advantage.  The loser of the game takes on the lower draft position while the higher team now possesses the better draft position and the higher seed.  Round 1 trims 14 teams down to 8 and definitively determines the 9-14 draft picks. 

The tourney now continues with winning teams either re-seeding (to higher seeds) or retaining the higher seeds they already possessed.  We introduce the #1 and #2 seeds and resume with the higher seeds retaining home court advantage.  8 teams turns to 4 in round 2; 4 teams to 2 in round 3; the #1 and #2 draft picks being determined by the final game.  (Optional: the final round could go to 3 games with the seeds being reversed: the team with the #1 pick gets the first game at home while the #2 seed gets the last two (if necessary) home games.  The winner of the series gets the #1 pick, the loser gets the #2 pick)

Make any sense?  Let’s illustrate using the end of year standings. 

Rankings:

1 Bucks                      8 Pistons

2 Sixers                      9 Cavs

3 Magic                      10 Pelicans

4 Celtics*                   11 Knicks

5 Jazz                         12 Nuggets

6 Lakers                     13 T-Wolves

7 Kings**                   14 Suns

            *(Celtics and Jazz tied in the standings and split in 2 head-to-head meetings.  How to break the tie?  I suggest overall points scored to determine the ‘better’ team.  The Jazz outscored the Celtics by 2 points thus I’d make the Celtics #4 and the Jazz #5)

            ** (Kings and Pistons tied in the standings but the Pistons swept both games against the Kings, thus the Kings get #7, the Pistons get #8)

Round 1

9 Cavs @ 3 Magic

10 Pelicans @ 4 Celtics

11 Knicks @ 5 Jazz

12 Nuggets @ 6 Lakers

13 T-Wolves @ 7 Kings

14 Suns @ 8 Pistons

            The loser of each of these games gets the higher position in the draft order while the winner takes the lower seeding and moves forward in the tournament. 

            Let’s just play it out:

Winners                     Draft Picks

3 Magic                      9^th pick -- Cavs                    

4 Celtics                     10^th pick -- Pelicans

11 Knicks                  11^th pick -- Jazz

6 Lakers                     12^th pick -- Nuggets

13 T-Wolves             13^th pick -- Kings

14 Suns                      14^th pick – Pistons

            Re-seed and continue.

Round 2 (Quarters)

5 Knicks @ 1 Bucks           

6 Lakers @ 2 Sixers

7 T-Wolves @ 3 Magic

8 Suns @ 4 Celtics

Winners                     Draft Picks

5 Knicks                    5^th pick -- Bucks

2 Sixers                      6^th pick -- Lakers

7 T-Wolves               7^th pick -- Magic

8 Suns                        8^th pick -- Celtics

            Re-seed and continue.

Round 3 (Semis)

3 T-Wolves @ 1 Knicks

4 Suns @ 2 Sixers

           

Winners                     Draft Picks

3 T-Wolves               3rd Pick -- Knicks

4 Suns                      4^th Pick -- Sixers

            Flip the seeding for home court in the Final. (In the Final you should reward the team that won the most games instead of lost the most)

Round 4 (Final)

1 T-Wolves @ 2 Suns

*(Or for a 3-game final)

(Game 1: 1 T-Wolves @ 2 Suns)

(Game 2: 2 Suns @ T-Wolves)

(Game 3: 2 Suns @ T-Wolves)

Stagger these game days in with the Championship playoffs and as the good teams play on, the lesser teams claim their tickets for the draft and look toward next year.  The lesser teams will produce exciting games, interesting match-ups and everyone will still be playing their stars, so the level of competition should be good.  Look, the Milwaukee Bucks were uniquely horrible this year but at home against a mediocre team, they’ve still got a decent shot in a single game.  By the end of the year some teams are shot and just cannot keep going.  That’ll happen.  But some teams will catch a second wind, get hot, benefit their futures and create some energy.   

The upside of this tourney is the awful teams get at least one extra home game with some post-season intensity that some major league cities rarely see, they still have a good shot at a good pick and the players get to keep playing. 

The middle teams that aren’t awful but just aren’t good enough to compete with the best get a chance to play their way up in the draft; they have to go on the road to do so but the reward is pretty good and theoretically they are the superior teams in this tournament so let them endure the hardship of success by making them go on the road to earn their prize. 

Best of all you remove the impetus to tank games and rest players because every team makes the post-season and every single game determines seeding.   Since every team would get a post-season, every team would properly prepare for it making sure their stars are playing through the finish line.  (A match-up like Pelicans at Celtics becomes Anthony Davis against Rajon Rondo where there’s something meaningful to play for; otherwise at this late date in the season those guys would be wearing suits on the bench rather than playing a meaningless game)

The downside is sometimes the current personnel of a franchise is not really that interested in the future of the franchise.  The lame duck coach and the unsigned free agents don’t get much out of this except 1-3 more games in a town they were already ready to leave.  And the last teams into the Championship playoffs are now the ones that get squished on both sides: little chance at a Championship and no chance at better access to the talent pool.  Also the #3 and #4 seeds are the real booby prizes: they have to defend what little they’ve got with little chance of moving higher in the draft. 

The current system rewards random.  It doesn’t seek to heal the infirmed, nor aide the healthy.  It just wants to dole out random rewards and punishments.  I don’t get it.  I’d rather reward skill.  To my mind this tourney is squeezing the last toothpaste out of the tube, it’s just an extra 13 games but if everyone knew they were there, they’d prepare for them and the fans get an extra handful of juicy contests on the way to baseball season.  

The return

I grew up in Lexington, Kentucky watching basketball, playing basketball, getting all up in basketball.  I’ve always loved sports (among other things) and I wouldn’t say basketball is my favorite.  I don’t have a favorite sport (although cricket is easily my least favorite sport) but what struck me last summer was that the NBA is a small enough pool of people that by now I know most all of the people in the fishbowl—indeed, some of these people I’ve been following since they were in high school.  For example, when I first started paying attention to pro basketball Larry Bird was still a fresh face in the league; since then I’ve seen him win MVP’s as a player, coach and general manager.  I've seen virtually his entire professional life.

Though I am a regular sports watcher, I want to sharpen my focus to the NBA.  Over the next few months I will give projections and recaps of the upcoming playoffs, keep an eye on the draft and continue to follow the moves, trades, signings, etc., on through the summer. I won’t be able to give the eyeball test to the NBA Summer League but I’ll look over the stats, try to ascertain which players are shining out or disappointing.  Also, I want to take a look back at last year’s transactions, give a 20/20 hindsight grade on who succeeded and who flailed badly.  I have little interest in pre-season so I generally pay little attention to basketball then preferring to watch the baseball post-season and NFL instead; but I suppose this year I’ll try to keep up. 

For decades, I’ve followed the personalities, the strategies, the projections, the standings and the stats.  The stats, as in baseball, have gotten continuously intricate and more interesting.  Do the intricacies reveal more about the game?  Not sure I’m convinced of that but I enjoy analyzing them just the same.  I don’t have a favorite team, I tend to follow any/all teams and throughout the course of a season I’ll pick out my favorites to watch.  (This year the Phoenix Suns were the team I most enjoyed watching and keeping up with and I gotta say Goran Dragic deserves more MVP votes that I reckon he’s gonna get)

Still figuring out my observational style but I think I’m more into studying the teams as opposed to individual players and the compositions of the teams (payrolls, draft choices, trade options, etc) more than the in-game strategy.  I’m interested in the teams within the larger context of the league itself and the players within the context of their team.  I dig the stars and the eyeball test is certainly a must as a fan, but the eyes can be deceived while the numbers are just numbers.  That said, I have the sinking feeling that over time statistics will only reveal the limitations of statistics.  

I watch NBA and I write so my mission is clear: I will write about the NBA.