NBA Playoffs recap -- Western Conference

Suns-Spurs is being billed as the best 1st round match in NBA history and I don't doubt it. These are 2 great teams going at it from the gitty--savor that, sports fan. The Spurs are assassins: they grind people down throughout the game, throughout the season, throughout the playoffs. But this year I just don't think their grind makes it. Note that as prolific as they've been, they haven't won back-to-back championships, they wear themselves down, its hard to sustain that pace. As great and underappreciated as they still are, I think they come up short here. It might as well be early. Shaq to the Suns was a head-scratcher at first but defending Duncan is why they got him, to clog the lane against a superior ball control offense like the Spurs. The Suns ran out of gas 2 years ago against the Mavs and were robbed last year by the Spurs (and the league). As bizarre as the Shaq-Suns experiment seemed at first, it has the potential to be something special. I think the Suns gut it out and I think the Spurs come up tired in game 7. Suns in 7

Spurs in 5. I was dead wrong about the Spurs. My gut told me the Spurs are the champs til they get beat. But I thought the Shaq trade would finally pay off and they'd keep Duncan locked down. Nope. Looking back on it Shaq was a poor replacement for Shawn Marion--especially at that price--and to see it any other way was sheer folly. The Suns were experimenting their way into San Antonio and that's just not gonna work. The experiment failed. Grant Hill and Raja Bell disappeared, Boris Diaw just can't carry the load, Leandro Barbosa didn't contribute. And Shaq was a colossal failure. In the midst of all that Stoudamire looked out of sync and Nash never got his finger on the pulse. The Hack-a-Shaq in the 2nd period of game 3 was Popovich at his most ruthless: he took the ball out of Nash's hands and kept the Suns supporting cast to get a rhythm going--right when they needed it most! Meanwhile, Tony Parker found every seam in the defense and shot at a John Stockton-in-his-prime percentage. Instead of getting brushed aside quickly, the Spurs are good and warmed up now. The Spurs don't come for moral victories, they come for rings.

Mavs-Hornets is an interesting and unexpected match. Is this the return of Dirk's Mavericks or will they be put out to pasture by the up-and-coming Chris Paul? For now, I'll go with Dirk. The Mavs played so hard last year but then forgot to beat the Warriors. This year the expectations are more measured, the egos are still bruised and they come in as the flailing veterans against a team that has overachieved all year long. I think Chris Paul carries the Hornets to 3 wins but not 4. I like Dirk and Kidd to find a way in game 7. Mavs in 7

Hornets in 5. 'Is this the return of Dirk's Mavericks or will they be put out to pasture by the up-and-coming Chris Paul?' Yeah, it’s the latter. Look for the Mavs to get blown up (I'd keep Dirk, maybe Josh Howard and no one else), while the Hornets sail their 6 man rotation into San Antonio. The Mavs looked tired, they never had the energy New Orleans brought and they weren't a cohesive squad. They got mushed. The Hornets have a great core but I'm not sure they're better than Utah was last year so I don't see them moving past the Spurs.

Jazz beat the Rockets last year in 7 games in the exact same match-up. The Jazz went on to the conference finals (because they got to stomp Golden State instead of facing #1 Dallas) and the Rockets went on to the 2nd longest winning streak in NBA history. So why are they in the same spots as last year? Seems like the Jazz should be better, they should've incorporated Millsap, Korver and Brewer into their game a little more and rehabilitated Kirilenko; the Rockets should've done better with Yao and worse without him, instead they plodded along just like the year before. These 2 teams are dangerous and yet they both seem so tired and unprepared. I'll take the Jazz in 6 but either way I don't like the chances of the winner of this series to go much further. Jazz in 6

Jazz in 6. I was generally right on Jazz-Rockets, though I would not have predicted the games would come out as they did. When the Jazz took the first 2 in Houston I figured sweep. But somehow they gave back game 3 and neglected to show up for game 5. If they'd come up short at home last night, they might've had trouble back in H-town but they got it done. Williams and Boozer were so impressive last year but this year they're not sneaking up on anybody and I'm not sure they're demonstrably better than last year.

I suspect the Lakers aren't as good as they look. But they've got Kobe. Gasol and Odom are a terrific back-up tandem but I'm not in love with Walton, Turiaf or Radmanovic as the difference makers. The Lakers can score a lot of points but I just don't see them as a complete team yet. Even with Bynum I just don't feel like they're good enough to win it all. They should, however, breeze through the Nuggets, who will want to play the same style of ball with maybe more talent but quite a bit less cohesion. The Nuggets will want to play motion offense/matador defense in a fast tempo and the Lakers will pound them mercilessly. Lakers in 5

Lakers in 4. Lakers-Nuggets was a pretty easy call. I'm not completely in love with the Lakers (not after the way the Spurs dusted off Phoenix) but they're a better team than Denver all the way around. The Nuggets need to be blown up. They don't play defense, they don't help each other and they act like brats. Keep Carmelo and the underappreciated Marcus Camby and let the rest drift. George Karl is just hanging around for the massive paychecks. Kenyon Martin was never much of a contributor in Denver. Iverson is too much of a ball hog to be a contributor and just not tough enough to carry a team on his back any more (when Deion Sanders lost a step, his game was virtually gone and that's where the Answer lies).