Mellow off-season so far for the Suns. They've only added a coupla veterans: Leandro Barbosa (2yrs/$8m) and Jared Dudley (3yrs/$30m). Draft night yielded Dragan Bender (#4), Marquisse Chriss (#8), Tyler Ulis (#34). Barbosa can't play big minutes but in his limited time, he's still an effective scorer and ball handler. Dudley's charms elude me: he's a funny guy, great talk show guest but on the court his contribution is minimal at best and they're paying him the exact same money that could've given to Teletovic; not a good move in my opinion. Bender is going to be interesting but I'm not sold on Chriss; Bender will take a year or two to get into the NBA game but he looks to have the skills to hang, while Chriss just has bust written all over him. I love picking up Ulis in the 2nd round, telling you, man, that guy can play and he's gonna be a great spark plug off the bench for the Suns this year.
So far they've only lost Mirza Teletovic (Bucks) and Jon Leuer (Pistons), but with their logjam of Kentucky guards, its hard to imagine they don't make one big trade by the end of summer. I don't mind letting go of Teletovic but replacing him with Dudley for the same money is a waste. I kinda like Leuer but with Bender in and Len still maturing, Leuer was an easy one to let go.
Right now their starting five looks something lie: PG Bledsoe, SG Booker, SF Tucker, PF Warren, C Chandler with Knight, Ulis, Goodwin, Barbosa, Dudley, Chriss, Bender, Len off the bench. I feel like Bledsoe is the one to go with maybe Warren or Tucker as a sweetener. What are they looking to get back for him? No telling with this team. It feels like they're finally settling down some but they still have one big deal to make and they hopefully they'll let the players play.
Tuesday, July 12, 2016
Memphis Grizzlies (so far)
Re-signed Mike Conley (5yrs/$135m). Added Chandler Parsons (4yrs/$94m), James Ennis (2yrs/$6m), Aaron Harrison (3yrs/$?). Drafted Wade Baldwin (#17), Deyonta Davis (#31), Rade Zagorac (#35), Wang Shelin (#57). Conley was a big get, thought he was gone for sure with the deterioration of the organization in recent years but the PG market was not as dynamic this summer as I anticipated and the Grizzlies were able to hang on to one of their cornerstones. They also stole Parsons away from the Mavs, could be fool's gold (man, is he worth all that?) but they need wing scoring desperately and Parsons should deliver. Ennis is a nice vet off the bench. And now they have both of the Harrison twins: hey, I still believe in them! They're big, play tough D, hit big shots and handle the ball well, why they both fell in the draft last year is a mystery to me. Not saying they'll be all-stars but they can both play and putting them together is a shrewd move for the Grizzlies. They did well to nab Baldwin and Davis on draft day, both have been playing in Summer League. Zagorac and Shelin will perhaps appear in the future (perhaps for other teams).
So far they've only lost Matt Barnes (Kings) and Chris Andersen (Cavs), but I think they've renounced both Lance Stephenson and Xavier Munford and it seems unlikely they'll bring back Mario Chalmers, PJ Hairston or Jordan Farmar. Not a big loss on any those guys, they were just bandaids to hold back the bleeding the Grizzlies suffered last season.
In this past post-season, the Grizzlies were perhaps the worst playoff team I'd ever seen. They were starting Jordan Farmer against the Spurs...Jordan Farmar! The fact that the Grizzlies held on to a playoff spot is a testament to the grit and grind philosophy they've held for years now. They got blasted by the Spurs, let Coach Joerger go to the Kings and it felt like without Conley this team would be in the doldrums for the forseeable future.
But they retained Conley, added a legit star on the wing in Parsons, wooed Coach David Fizdale away from Miami and made a lot of good moves to bring in young talent. Suddenly it feels like the Grizzlies are back in contention in the West (well, sorta). What looked disaster has left them looking stronger. If they can get through the year without crippling injuries, they could be back in the top four in the West and looming as a dangerous playoff team.
In this past post-season, the Grizzlies were perhaps the worst playoff team I'd ever seen. They were starting Jordan Farmer against the Spurs...Jordan Farmar! The fact that the Grizzlies held on to a playoff spot is a testament to the grit and grind philosophy they've held for years now. They got blasted by the Spurs, let Coach Joerger go to the Kings and it felt like without Conley this team would be in the doldrums for the forseeable future.
But they retained Conley, added a legit star on the wing in Parsons, wooed Coach David Fizdale away from Miami and made a lot of good moves to bring in young talent. Suddenly it feels like the Grizzlies are back in contention in the West (well, sorta). What looked disaster has left them looking stronger. If they can get through the year without crippling injuries, they could be back in the top four in the West and looming as a dangerous playoff team.
MLB at Mid-Season
Right now in the American League your playoff teams are the Rangers, Indians, Orioles with the Red Sox and Blue Jays playing in. The only teams that can be comfortably written off for the year are the Twins, Rays, Angels and A's. That leaves the Astros, Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Mariners and Yankees fighting for the scraps.
I think the Rangers are for real and have less competition in the West, I'll take them to finish 1st overall. I like the Indians but the Royals and Tigers are both still solid teams; I'll take the Royals to win the Central and the Indians to take one of the wild card spots. In the East, I feel like the Blue Jays still have their best baseball ahead of them whereas the Orioles have probably already peaked this year. The Red Sox will make moves and hang around but I don't think they're really any better than the Indians.
Right now playoff projections: Indians over Red Sox in the play-in; Rangers over Indians, Blue Jays over Royals. Blue Jays over Rangers.
I've watched less National League but my sense is that the Cubs are not the greatest teams of all time, just one of the greatest teams of this year. And the Nats have finally put something together (player manager is making all the difference, I'm thinking) after years of frustrating close-ness. Right now your playoff teams are Giants, Cubs, Nats with Dodgers-Mets in the play-in. There are a number of teams we can rule out: Braves, Reds, D-Backs, Padres, Brewers (fire sale on its way), Rockies, Phillies. The Pirates have disappointed so far but I think they've already played the toughest part of their schedule, I like them to make a 2nd half push. Also I think the Cardinals and Dodgers flounder.
I'll take Pirates over Mets in the play-in; Cubs over Pirates, Nats over Giants. Cubs over Nats.
I forgot to do a pre-season MLB projection but I'm pretty sure I would've taken the Cubs over Blue Jays in the World Series, so I'll go ahead and stick with that. The Cubs are young but they've got as much talent as any team I can think of for the least few years, the pitching is solid, the coach is a badass, the depth is amazing at every position, the Cubs are the best team. In baseball that doesn't always translate to winning but I think once the Cubs really get rolling, there will be an unstoppable groundswell to propel them forward. And the Blue Jays are ripe to play the villain, should make for a great Series!
Euro Soccer
Ain't gonna lie: I was rooting against Portugal the entire tournament but they managed to squeak through again and again all the way to the Championship. They had only 1 win in 90 minutes in the entire tournament (1 W, 3 Draws, 2 OT Wins, 1 PK Win)...and still won it all. Kooky, man. Eder is the man, what a goal--did not see that coming!
I don't want to say Portugal was a better team without Christian Ronaldo but his absence befuddled France without diminishing the Portugal attack. Remember a coupla years back when the Clippers had a 3-2 lead on the Rockets and a ridiculously huge lead in Game Six, ready to wrap it up: then the Rockets benched James Harden, went on a run to steal the game and stunned the Clippers. Its not that the Rockets were better without Harden, its that the Clippers were so focused on Harden that they paid no attention to the rest of the team. I think that's what happened to France: once Ronaldo left the game with an injury (and come on, folks, he was hurt, he wasn't jaking it out there, if he could've played I guarantee he would have) France didn't make any adjustments. They could've realigned themselves to move the ball forward, instead they kept walking right into Portugal's sludge-y midfield and getting bogged down.
Also, I thought subbing Payet and Giroud near the end was kinda weird considering how dangerous they looked throughout the tournament (and especially considering overtime and PK's were in the offing). And, yes, I know Pogba is a defender but, man, don't you want him closer to the goal? His touch is amazing and he has a great offensive sense, just seems like putting him at defensive mid is kind of a waste.
Kind of a shame, I thought France was the best team (Germany 2nd, Italy 3rd, with some ordering of Wales, Poland, Iceland, Portugal next I guess) but you gotta win the big game to get the big trophy. (Hmmmm.....when Jurgen Klinnsman leaves Team USA for England, will Didier Deschamps be interested in the USA job?)
I don't want to say Portugal was a better team without Christian Ronaldo but his absence befuddled France without diminishing the Portugal attack. Remember a coupla years back when the Clippers had a 3-2 lead on the Rockets and a ridiculously huge lead in Game Six, ready to wrap it up: then the Rockets benched James Harden, went on a run to steal the game and stunned the Clippers. Its not that the Rockets were better without Harden, its that the Clippers were so focused on Harden that they paid no attention to the rest of the team. I think that's what happened to France: once Ronaldo left the game with an injury (and come on, folks, he was hurt, he wasn't jaking it out there, if he could've played I guarantee he would have) France didn't make any adjustments. They could've realigned themselves to move the ball forward, instead they kept walking right into Portugal's sludge-y midfield and getting bogged down.
Also, I thought subbing Payet and Giroud near the end was kinda weird considering how dangerous they looked throughout the tournament (and especially considering overtime and PK's were in the offing). And, yes, I know Pogba is a defender but, man, don't you want him closer to the goal? His touch is amazing and he has a great offensive sense, just seems like putting him at defensive mid is kind of a waste.
Kind of a shame, I thought France was the best team (Germany 2nd, Italy 3rd, with some ordering of Wales, Poland, Iceland, Portugal next I guess) but you gotta win the big game to get the big trophy. (Hmmmm.....when Jurgen Klinnsman leaves Team USA for England, will Didier Deschamps be interested in the USA job?)
Wimbledon
Murray over Raonic
Gotta hand it to Raonic: he battled. He has perhaps the best serve in the game right now, unfortunately for him Murray is perhaps the best returner in the game right now. Federer gets to every ball by good defensive play, Nadal gets to every ball by hustling like a maniac, Djokovic gets to every ball because he has a Gretzky-like sense of just knowing where every ball is gonna go but Murray gets to every ball because he is a giant crazy octopus-man who is never far away from anything on the court. He had the home court advantage (no love for the plucky underdog Roanic when up against a Brit at Wimbledon, sorry dude) and came into the Final rolling. Man, once Djokovic went out it was up for grabs but I thought only Federer could beat Murray. Murray is your Wimbeldon champion and a well deserved Slam for him.
Murray over Berdych
Berdych is good but he has that malady that top ten tennis players often suffer from: he's better than 99% of the planet at tennis but not that last 1%. (I think Ferrer, Tsonga and Gasquet are in that camp, as well, which is where Andy Roddick spent the bulk of his career) Berdych is a good athlete, good serve, good return, moves well around the court but tennis is a game of big plays and I just never felt like against Murray Berdych was gonna get any of those big plays. Murray had him stifled early and that was that.
Raonic over Federer
Raonic won the 1st set, Federer won the 2nd and then the 3rd. Then an interesting thing happened in the 4th set: Federer had his break chances but just couldn't take advantage and both players seemed resigned for a tie-break, when all of the sudden, Raonic stepped up and surprised Federer on his last serve and stole the 4th set from him. You could tell Federer never quite got over that moment and he floundered badly in the 5th. Raonic broke him early in the 5th and even though it felt like Federer would have a moment or two to put it on Raonic, he never really challenged him. Federer has this thing where he is such a super genius of tennis that he can see 4 or 5 steps ahead in the future and every once in a while he looks ahead and realizes he's lost. Federer's not the fighter he once was and if he can't win by playing the cleanest, neatest tennis on the planet (the Edberg-i-est tennis), then he just doesn't even wanna win. Federer is still a step ahead of Berdych and Gasquet, et al., but he doesn't have that fire any more and falters at the oddest times. This was (perhaps) his last best chance to win another Slam.
Serena over Kerber
This was a very even match coming down to a handful of points (as is often the case in high level tennis). Serena made the plays and Kerber did not. Kind of a mirrors of Kerber's defeat of Venus in the semis: Kerber made the plays that Venus couldn't make. Serena is still the best but there's a lot more competition out there for her these days than there was in the past. Kerber is a comer and was lucky enough to be born long enough after the Williams sisters that she seems on her way to having the great tennis career that Serena has mostly kept everyone else from having.
Gotta hand it to Raonic: he battled. He has perhaps the best serve in the game right now, unfortunately for him Murray is perhaps the best returner in the game right now. Federer gets to every ball by good defensive play, Nadal gets to every ball by hustling like a maniac, Djokovic gets to every ball because he has a Gretzky-like sense of just knowing where every ball is gonna go but Murray gets to every ball because he is a giant crazy octopus-man who is never far away from anything on the court. He had the home court advantage (no love for the plucky underdog Roanic when up against a Brit at Wimbledon, sorry dude) and came into the Final rolling. Man, once Djokovic went out it was up for grabs but I thought only Federer could beat Murray. Murray is your Wimbeldon champion and a well deserved Slam for him.
Murray over Berdych
Berdych is good but he has that malady that top ten tennis players often suffer from: he's better than 99% of the planet at tennis but not that last 1%. (I think Ferrer, Tsonga and Gasquet are in that camp, as well, which is where Andy Roddick spent the bulk of his career) Berdych is a good athlete, good serve, good return, moves well around the court but tennis is a game of big plays and I just never felt like against Murray Berdych was gonna get any of those big plays. Murray had him stifled early and that was that.
Raonic over Federer
Raonic won the 1st set, Federer won the 2nd and then the 3rd. Then an interesting thing happened in the 4th set: Federer had his break chances but just couldn't take advantage and both players seemed resigned for a tie-break, when all of the sudden, Raonic stepped up and surprised Federer on his last serve and stole the 4th set from him. You could tell Federer never quite got over that moment and he floundered badly in the 5th. Raonic broke him early in the 5th and even though it felt like Federer would have a moment or two to put it on Raonic, he never really challenged him. Federer has this thing where he is such a super genius of tennis that he can see 4 or 5 steps ahead in the future and every once in a while he looks ahead and realizes he's lost. Federer's not the fighter he once was and if he can't win by playing the cleanest, neatest tennis on the planet (the Edberg-i-est tennis), then he just doesn't even wanna win. Federer is still a step ahead of Berdych and Gasquet, et al., but he doesn't have that fire any more and falters at the oddest times. This was (perhaps) his last best chance to win another Slam.
Serena over Kerber
This was a very even match coming down to a handful of points (as is often the case in high level tennis). Serena made the plays and Kerber did not. Kind of a mirrors of Kerber's defeat of Venus in the semis: Kerber made the plays that Venus couldn't make. Serena is still the best but there's a lot more competition out there for her these days than there was in the past. Kerber is a comer and was lucky enough to be born long enough after the Williams sisters that she seems on her way to having the great tennis career that Serena has mostly kept everyone else from having.
Friday, July 8, 2016
Minnesota Wolves (so far)
Minimal moves for the Wolves. After hiring Coach Tom Thibodeau, they've since added only two free agents: Brandon Rush (1yr/$3.5m) and Cole Aldrich (3yrs/$22m), not exactly high profile guys. They declined the option on Damjan Rudez and draft Kris Dunn (#5). Not a busy summer but I think they didn't need to make a lot of moves, so good for them.
When watching the Clippers in the playoffs last year, I thought Cole Aldrich was the 2nd best player they had (guess, Coach Thibs saw what I saw). And I love nabbing hungry veterans for badass teams, so Brandon Rush should bring some professionalism and fire to a young Wolves team. Kris Dunn looks like a young Chris Paul, though I thought they could've used Buddy Hield, can't complain about picking Dunn.
Starting five: PG Rubio, SG Mohammad, SF LaVine, PF Wiggins, C Towns with Dunn, Jones, Rush, Bjelica, Garnett, Aldrich, Payne, Pekovic and Dieng off the bench. (Dunn, LaVine, Wiggins, Towns, Dieng is the dream starting five, though, right?)
From the beginning I thought Coach Thibs' mission was clear: turn LaVine and Payne into defensive standouts. If the Wolves can do that, they'll have home playoff games next year. Next step: figure out what to do with Peckovic: if he can play, fine; if not, get rid of that contract. Now the mission is figure out Rubio's role (or trade him), then figure out Mohammad's role (or trade him), then figure out Bjelica's role (or trade him), then figure out Payne's role (or trade him). If these guys can play, play them! If not, ship them out. Dunn, LaVine, Wiggins, Towns and Dieng are the core they're building around, figuring out the best way to help them is the mission for the next few years.
I love this team. I think they're a playoff team no matter what they end up doing. I think their ceiling is 3rd in the West, I think they're floor is probably still 6th or 7th in the West. Can't wait to see what Thibs gets out these kids.
When watching the Clippers in the playoffs last year, I thought Cole Aldrich was the 2nd best player they had (guess, Coach Thibs saw what I saw). And I love nabbing hungry veterans for badass teams, so Brandon Rush should bring some professionalism and fire to a young Wolves team. Kris Dunn looks like a young Chris Paul, though I thought they could've used Buddy Hield, can't complain about picking Dunn.
Starting five: PG Rubio, SG Mohammad, SF LaVine, PF Wiggins, C Towns with Dunn, Jones, Rush, Bjelica, Garnett, Aldrich, Payne, Pekovic and Dieng off the bench. (Dunn, LaVine, Wiggins, Towns, Dieng is the dream starting five, though, right?)
From the beginning I thought Coach Thibs' mission was clear: turn LaVine and Payne into defensive standouts. If the Wolves can do that, they'll have home playoff games next year. Next step: figure out what to do with Peckovic: if he can play, fine; if not, get rid of that contract. Now the mission is figure out Rubio's role (or trade him), then figure out Mohammad's role (or trade him), then figure out Bjelica's role (or trade him), then figure out Payne's role (or trade him). If these guys can play, play them! If not, ship them out. Dunn, LaVine, Wiggins, Towns and Dieng are the core they're building around, figuring out the best way to help them is the mission for the next few years.
I love this team. I think they're a playoff team no matter what they end up doing. I think their ceiling is 3rd in the West, I think they're floor is probably still 6th or 7th in the West. Can't wait to see what Thibs gets out these kids.
Denver Nuggets (so far)
The Nuggets did their damage on draft day, bringing in a raft of interesting young talent: SG Jamal Murray, SG/SF Juan Hernangomez, G Malik Beasley, SF Petr Cornelie, all rangy scorers, all should be pretty good right away, Coach Malone has a ton of scoring options to work with. In free agency the Nuggets have added no new players, lost only DJ Augustine (oh yeah, he played for Denver), and retained only Darrel Arthur (3yrs/$23m), though I assume they'll be picking up the options of Gary Harris and Jursuf Nurkic.
Like the Jazz, the Nuggets' upcoming season is built on maturation of the young talent. If Mudiay, Jokic, Harris and Nurkic are just a little better next year, then the Nuggets will be vastly improved (though that may not appear in the Win column). The team is probably happy to have another lottery pick next summer, the chances of beating the Warriors are so remote, its not really even much of a dream. Play the kids, let 'em grow, don't worry about winning. That said, if they all improve and gel and if Murray has a Devin Booker-ish rookie year, if Will Barton really is for-real, the Nuggets might could sneak a playoff spot in the West. But I don't see it.
I think the talent will be fun to watch, they'll catch teams off-balance and Denver has always been a great home court advantage, so making the playoffs is not so impossible. But they've got a long way to go to catch the Blazers, much less the Warriors. They've got time to churn some talent, get some reps and learn how to play NBA ball. I reckon the Nuggets will be making another big push in next year's draft.
Like the Jazz, the Nuggets' upcoming season is built on maturation of the young talent. If Mudiay, Jokic, Harris and Nurkic are just a little better next year, then the Nuggets will be vastly improved (though that may not appear in the Win column). The team is probably happy to have another lottery pick next summer, the chances of beating the Warriors are so remote, its not really even much of a dream. Play the kids, let 'em grow, don't worry about winning. That said, if they all improve and gel and if Murray has a Devin Booker-ish rookie year, if Will Barton really is for-real, the Nuggets might could sneak a playoff spot in the West. But I don't see it.
I think the talent will be fun to watch, they'll catch teams off-balance and Denver has always been a great home court advantage, so making the playoffs is not so impossible. But they've got a long way to go to catch the Blazers, much less the Warriors. They've got time to churn some talent, get some reps and learn how to play NBA ball. I reckon the Nuggets will be making another big push in next year's draft.
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