2024 NHL Stanley Cup (Game Five)

Oilers 5-3 Panthers

Okay, it's on! The Oilers came out cooking in the 1st period got up 3-0 early in the 2nd. The Panthers cut the lead to 2. Oilers pushed it to 4-1 (holy shit, that goal was sweet! The way McDavid knifes through the defense, then lays the easy-as-you-please layup was a thing of beauty, Magic to Worthy, Luke to Lively, some Diego Maradona shit, some Bo Jackson shit!). The Panthers immediately come back and cut the lead to 2.

Around the 7 minute mark in the 2nd period, I thought the Panthers took the attack back. The Oilers got sloppy on D and went through a long stretch of not protecting the possession and the Panthers kinda dominated for a while. The Panthers got the score to 4-3, then the Oilers finally clamped down and went back to some offense. 

The Panthers pulled the goalie with about 4 minutes to go, the crowd was going nuts, but the Oilers stood up and almost scored an empty netter (wow, I don't think I've ever seen an empty netter hit the post), then a miraculously awesome defensieve swipe warded off another attempt. But the defense was too shredded to stop McDavid working the rebound to finish it off with about a minute to go. 

And we go back to Edmonton for Game Six and I'm looking forward to it! If the Panthers had come back from being down 4-1 in the 2nd, that would've been awesome. Otherwise, I was rooting for the Oilers and I guess I'll continue to root for them as long as they're the underdog. Coming back from 3-0 really could happen here. I'm into it!

2024 Euro Soccer (after 1 game)

Group A

Germany 5-1 Scotland

Yeah, it was that bad. Germany has been kinda down lately but I think this squad is ready to kick ass. Throw in that Scotland may well turn out to be the worst team in this tourney and, yeah, 5-1. Scotland bunkered from the git-go but Germany quickly whittled them down, kept edging them back to where any tiny hole in the wall was close enough for a quick strike and in the 10th minute () did just that with  a rip from the top of the box that the keeper couldn't corral. The game was over there but Germany kept up their ball control attack and () scored a few minutes later off a rip from about 10 yards out. Scotland just missed giving up a penalty when the initial call was reversed to just outside the box (the right call), but just a few minutes later couldn't avoid the penalty (definitely the right call) and the red card (also the right call) just before halftime. So by halftime, it was just a matter of how much effort the Germans felt like putting in to kicking Scotland's ass and the Scottish fans pretty much knew this was just a drinking afternoon. The Scots had their best run of possession just out of halftime, but after about 10-12 mins, Germany was backing them up all over again. When Sane came in for Germany, it felt like a signal that the Germans were happy to just run out the clock; but when Fullkrug, Muller and Can came in, suddenly it felt like the Germans were smelling the blood in the water and everyone wanted a goal. Fullkrug scored on a moment of brilliance, gathering the loose ball and ripping one to the far post in one motion. Fullkrug connected again a coupla minutes later just muscling the ball into the goal, but that was called back for offside (the right call). Scotland were able to coax an own-goal off a free kick into the box that doinked off Rudiger's head. But cutting into the lead just meant that the Germans were gonna go for one more and Can was able to rip one from the top of the box, too, to end up with the largest winning margin in the history of the Euro. (Largest win in the history of the Euro....really? First 4 goal victory in the history of the tournament? That seems a little odd....)  Scotland wasn't very good no offense at all, couldn't sustain possession, couldn't turn to counter effectively, just kept backing up and backing up on defense, I don't see much Cinderella potential in this squad. Germany looks really good to me in all phases of the game, I'm curious to see if anyone else even comes close. 

Hungary 1-3 Switzerland

(Didn't see it, don't have Fubo TV)

Group B

Spain 3-0 Croatia

Interesting game: Spain had about 15 mins before halftime where everything they did worked. But the rest of the game....I dunno....Spain wasn't wildly better than Croatia. Its easy to look at that scoreline and think a) Spain is ready to kick some ass again and/or b) Croatia is the old team (every tourney there's at least one squad that tries to wing it with the old guard one tournament too long). But I'm not ready to go to either of those conclusions. Spain did what they needed to do, had a great day and set themselves up to get to the next round, but I'm not all in on them or anything. And as for Croatia, well, they didn't get off to a good start but I'm not ready to bury them just yet.

Italy 2-1 Albania

Got to this game 15 minutes late....and missed all the goals. Italy had just scored their 2nd goal when I turned it on and from that point on, Italy pretty well dominated possession til halftime. They held possession well but I wasn't particuarly impressed with their attempts to get to the goal. In the 2nd half, I thought Albania was largely the better team, both teams had a coupla heartbreaking missed opportunities but for the most part I thought Albania's offense was probably better. So Italy got the W, recovered from an early disaster and had moments of looking like a for-real ball control offense; but, they did open with a disaster and most of the 2nd half it felt like they were spinning their wheels, so not sure I'm that into Italy. Albania played spunky, had some nice moments, looked better than Scotland, say, but I doubt they've got enough firepower to make much of a show this year, but we'll see.

Group C

Slovenia 1-1 Denmark

All four of these squads look exactly the same to me. England has the W and the 1 goal lead now, they're in the driver's seat, but all three other teams feel like they can score and/or hang. This group is still wiiiiiiiiide open. 

England 1-0 Serbia

A brilliant goal by Jude Bellingham, coming out of nowhere to connect on the looping corner kick. Otherwise, I thought the two sides were pretty similar, England was better in the 1st half, Serbia probably better on the attack in the 2nd. The W and the 1 goal advantage should push England through to the next round. 

Group D

Poland 1-2 Netherlands

Pretty even match. I thought the Dutch had more opportunities and ultimately they did finish more than Poland, but I wasn't overwhelmed (yet) with this Dutch side. As for Poland, they got a bunch of big burly athletes and took an early lead without Lewandowski (so is he playing? I missed the update), I guess that's a pretty good effort from them. I dunno, I'm not one-way-or-the-other about either of these teams. Netherlands definitely got the better result, but I don't think its over for Poland just yet. 

Austria 0-1 France

Well, France had a lot of chances that they should've scored, so I guess I'll overlook the fact that their one score was a fluky own goal and that they really did not impress on this day. And the real danger: Mbappe took a hard hit, looked like a broken nose to me and that's gotta be tough to play with, curious to see if they leave him out of the group games. As for Austria, the defense was okay (errant French shooting helped out) but they never seemed particularly scary around the goal. We're supposed to think that France is way better than Austria--and they probably are--but this game didn't really show off that dynamic. 

Group E

Romania 3-0 Ukraine

(Didn't see it, don't have Fubo TV)

Belgium 0-1 Slovakia

(Only caught the 2nd half) Slovakia scored an early goal, made it stand up, good work. In the 2nd half, I thought Belgium blew so many opportunities and look likely to fail to live up to their hype (again). As for Slovakia, well, I didn't see them do much, but they got the W and that's good.

Group F

Turkey - Georgia

(Didn't see it, don't have Fubo TV)

Portugal - Czechia

(Missed it, had to take the cat to the vet (he's fine))

So far, Germany looks awesome, no one else looks that great just yet. Spain got the best W; Italy,  England, Netherlands and France just did enough to win.  Slovakia is playing on house money, could turn interesting. Croatia does not look done to me. I was not particularly impressed with--but not completely out on--Slovenia, Denmark, Poland, Albania or Serbia. I'm done with Belgium. Austria is not particularly good. Scotland looks pretty awful. 

I still haven't seen Hungary, Switzerland, Romania, Ukraine, Turkey, Georgia, Portugal, Czechia--so there's still a third of the teams I've missed so far. 

Right now I'm going with Germany. We'll see if I still think that next week. 

2023-24 NHL Stanley Cup (after 4 games)

(ONE) Oilers 0-3 Panthers

Man, both of these defenses are drum-like in their tightness. I thought the Panthers had basically two good looks at the goal--finished them both--and picked up an empty netter on the way out. Meanwhile, the Oilers had zero good looks at the goal in 60 minutes and scored zero goals. This reminded me of Game One in the Eastern Conference finals where the Panthers beat the Rangers by the same score. That, too, felt like a harbinger of an all-defense series but maybe not, that series had a fair amount of scoring and the Oilers-Stars version in the West had a lot more offense. So, while this has gotten off to a full-on defensive start, that might not be the shape of it. 

The 1st goal was a nifty fast break where the third guy in the attack had just enough room to find the net because the forward defender couldn't recover in time, leaving a gap up the middle. The 2nd goal was a lovely searching pass that just happened to find the defender stretched out of position momentarily leaving an empty space in front of the net where luckily the forward was able to find the top shelf; don't want to discount its awesomeness, but the pass that led to the finish was just a piece of luck, really, a hopeful pass that was rewarded. In short, neither of those are examples of the cornerstone of the Panther attack.

I watched all of the Eastern conference Finals over the Rangers and most of the Western Finals over Dallas. My gut feeling is both of these teams have more offense and I expect this Series to loosen up, especially if Edmonton can keep it going. Not that I don't love some defensive hockey, just saying I think there's going to be goals scored. 

(TWO) Oilers 1-4 Panthers

More of the same. The Oilers took the lead early when a rather innocuous breakaway chance dribbled through Bobrovsky's legs into the goal. Bobrovsky has been getting all the love, and that's great, but it seems to me that it is the full Panther defense that is parrying away the Oiler attack. Bobrovsky has certainly been good but he's mostly getting hit in the chest by desperate shot attempts. Thought it was weird that he gave up this piece of fluff, though.

But Rodridues was able to finish two tight rips in the 3rd to seal it. And they tacked on another empty netter. 

The Panthers defense is so good that it creates patience opportunities at the other end. If the attack just maintains possession, they'll eventually find the lane. Not over yet but unless the Oilers find some kind of scoring acumen and do something to upset the Panther defense, then this one is over. 

(THREE) Panthers 4-3 Oilers

Man, this series is looking exactly like the Mavs-Celtics series: in Game Three over there, the Mavs trying to avoid a sweep, got a nice lead early, couldn't hold it, got way down to the Celtics, who fell asleep and let the Mavs back into the game late, but held on to win anyway. (Replace Mavs with Oilers and Celtics with Panthers) I'm still so amazed that Edmonton just can't get a sniff of the goal. Everyone is praising Bobrovsky, and he's playing well, but his defense in front of him is leaving him very little to do. And the Panther attack is methodical, takes its time, but is punching holes more than the Oilers can hang with. Dude, the 2nd period of this match was like target practice for the Panthers, the Oiler D was getting stretched and the keeper got peppered. 

3-0 is pretty much over--even in hockey--and, uh, yeah, this feels over to me. Maybe getting 3 goals (even in a losing effort) will ignite the attack...maybe....that could happen. But the Panthers are playing really well, I think they'll finish it in 4.

(FOUR) Panthers 1-8 Oilers

Well, now, wait a second....After 4 games the NHL Final looks an awful lot (right?) like the NBA finals. The better team is up 3-0, the drowning home team in Game Four steps and gets a big win. But the Celtics rolling over to the Mavs' last-gasp onslaught is not the same as the dominant Panthers defense getting steadily dismantled. In the first 8 periods the Oilers scored 2 goals; in the last 4 periods the Oilers scored 10 goals. The Oilers have dug a pretty deep hole, I'm not yet ready to say that they turned a corner at the end of Game Three, but I am more curious for Game Five than I thought I would be (whereas I fully expect the Celtics to rail the Mavs in Game Five and finish that series). 

The Panthers looked untouchable til the 3rd period of GameThree, were they just taking the night off in Game Four? We'll see.

(FIVE) Oilers - Panthers

Yeah, I'm getting pretty excited for tonight's match! Whereas the Celtics easily finished off the Mavs in Game Five even after a shaky performance in Game Four, it feels different over here in the hockey world. I don't think you can just mail in a game in hockey like the Celtics do from time to time in basketball. Though the Celtics fans certainly felt shaky going into Game Five, you knew and I knew that the game was going to be a triumphant Celtic stomping (and it was) because Game Four was just a fluke.

But in this series, the sheer dominance the Oilers turned on in the last 1.3 games looks like they figured something out on the Panther defense--that wasn't simply a hamfisted performance by the Panthers or a lucky night for the Oilers. That was two teams and going at it and for the first time in the series, the Oilers looked like the dominant ones. Can they keep it going? I look forward to finding out tonight.

2024 French Open

(12) Paolini 2/1 - 6/6 (1) Swiatek

Yeah, this one was over pretty quick. Paolini moved well, great athlete, moves like a cat out there, but she just didn't have any advantage of Swiatek, who mushed her pretty quickly. Swiatekwas up 5-0 in the 2nd, I felt bad for Paolini, afraid she might get bageled. But she recovered (and Swiatek slacked off) to avoid the shut out. Paolini is a nice player but she's got a ways to go to be a major champion. Swiatek, on the other hand, is on top of the world right now. 

(4) Zverev 3/6/7/1/2 - 6/2/5/6/6 (3) Alcaraz

I only saw the Final, so I got no thoughts on what led up to this. To my eye, while Zverev's size and speed was slightly neutralized by the clay court, it seemed like his defense would be even better, that he'd get to every ball and he felt to me like the favorite. But Alcaraz has the ability to wait til the last second to make his shot, giving him great camouflage that minimized Zverev's defensive advantage. It was Alcaraz that got to every ball and pretty well dominated the 1st set. But Zverev stayed cool and did a good job of pushing Alcaraz around in the 2nd set to even it up. 

In the 3rd set, Alcaraz struck me as celebrating a little too much, a little too early, as if he was pepping himself back up after a disappointing 2nd set. I can understand that he needed the boost (even if it was artificial), but I worried that it might go sideways on him. Well, he went up a break, the crowd was going wild in his favor, and I kinda felt like an idiot. Then....Alcaraz just straight collapsed for the rest of the set, couldn't hit a winner, couldn't get away from Zverev's two-handed backhand and Zverev stormed back from 5-2 to win the set at 7-5. The crowd was stunned and even though I kinda saw it coming, I, too, was stunned. 

Then in the 4th, Zverev gave up two quick breaks, gave back all the momentum and then even though they each broke the other one more time (a rather puzzling development, actually), Alcaraz cruised through the 4th to take back the momentum and set up a classic 5th set.  

Except that Zverev was completely cooked by then and the "classic" 5th set turned into a walkover, as Zverev flailed and Alcaraz cruised. Alcaraz is the more complete player at this point and certainly played better on this day (outside of that disastrous 3rd set), but if Zverev could've held it together for just one more hour, this really could've been something, because I still believe Zverev can be a great player (honestly, he seems like he needs the conditioning, he just didn't seem ready for a 5th set). 

It appears to me that Nadal is now completely finished and Djokovic might be done, too. A new day is coming in tennis and it looks to be the Alcaraz period is officially under way. 

2023-24 NBA Finals (Game One)

(ONE) Mavs 89-107 Celtics

Well, if Porzingis is awesome like this for three more games, then this series will be over in 4. The Celtics just needed Porzingis to not suck, to not be a zero out there, and he was way more than that, dominating the 1st half at both ends. If Porzingis is terrible then the Mavs might have a chance to pull a surprise, but if Porzingis is a big contributor, then the Mavs have nothing to stop that, no chance to keep up. I hate to overreact to the first game, but it was pretty clear right away that the Mavs will have to be perfect on offense to even have a chance. By perfect I mean Luka needs a very efficient 35 every night, Kyrie needs an efficient 25 every night and the rest need an efficient 30 to hang. That's a tough ask, man, this Celtics defense is pretty damn good and, again, if Porzingis is high level, the Mavs have no answer. 

Here's the real realization of Game One: holy shit, the Celtics are really fuckin' good and we all kinda knew that, but now that we're in the Championship and it is plainly obvious that this squad is just about perfect. Even without Porzingis they should still beat the Mavs, but with a healthy Porzingis, they have way too much for the Mavs to hang with. I'm even really impressed with the minutes the Celtics have been getting out of Luke Kornet and Sam Hauser, I figured they would go away for the Final, but, no, I think I expect to see them playing pretty good minutes. 

The Celtics had great success in Game One on shutting down the dunker-spot contribution of the Mavs offense. If the Celtics continue to take that away, I'd suggest gang tackling on Kyrie and just letting Luka do whatever he wants. If Luka goes for 50 every night but the Celtics shut down everything else....this'll be over in 4. 

The really fascinating wrinkle that could appear: what if the Celtics stomp the Mavs in 4 games even with Luka being amazing every night....but Tatum doesn't do anything? What if Porzingis is the big hero or Jaylen Brown goes off a coupla nights in a row or we all acknowledge that the real winner is the Celtics stifling team defense (led by Derrick White and Jrue Holiday) or the superior acumen of the much maligned Coach Mazzulo or we really begin to appreciate the terrific job that GM Brad Stevens has done putting this squad together....what does that do for the Tatum-is-the-man narrative? Is it just a joke for them to laugh about next season or is it a cloud that hangs over a team that's kinda built to dominate for the next few years? (Yup, this series is already so over that I'm peeking ahead to what could happen next year)

2023-24 NBA Championship (Predictions)

East

Pacers 128-133 (OT) Celtic

Pacers 110-126 Celtics

Celtics 114-111 Pacers

Celtics 105-102 Pacers

Game Two was the big fave blowout game, Game Four was the team in control finishing the job. But the other two matches were nailbiters--and gotta say: the Pacers lost Game One and Game Three more than the Celtics won them. If the Pacers make the right plays late or at least bring some ruckus in the OT, they very easily could've been up early on the road. But....they didn't make the plays, the Celtics ripped them in OT and then ripped them some more in Game Two, went up 2-0, and looked like the dominant Eastern champs that they've been all season. 

The Pacers, again, had their chance to steal Game Three--the gentleman's sweep game. But, again, the Pacers failed to capitalize and the Celtics handled their business. Game Four was good effort from the Pacers, the Celtics did well to squeeze the life out of this squad. 

I was impressed with the Pacers. They faced a schizophrenic and battered Bucks squad, managed to outlast the Intensive Care Knicks, had some real toe-to-tie moments with the Eastern champs, they made the most of their run. They overachieved but this team can score. This team is good, if they run this back, they can expect to be better just on the normal maturation of Halliburton, Turner, Jackson and Benedict Mathurin (who didn't play at all in this series) and another year of Siakim getting acclimated to the rotation, so if the other East teams are gonna fart around, this Pacers team could be top 3 next season--it isn't that crazy. 

Myles Turner gets buckets! I think they'd be crazy to trade him (though he's been one of the buzziest names in the league for years). Tyrese Halliburton had a tough season, started brilliantly--and that was after a fine performance in the FIBA World Cup last summer--but then ran into injury woes, which he was forced to play through to get his bonuses. I love Halliburton, but he's not yet a 4th quarter assassin, when he fully matures into his All-NBA self, he'll win the games that he let get away (like One and Three). Pascal Siakam, who I presume is re-signing with the Pacers (right?), is one that I have long thought of as a top flight 3rd banana, had some for-real moments of carrying this team (albeit without having to face Kristaps Prozingis). I liked Andrew Nembhard (made some cold blooded plays), Aaron Nesmith (seems like the prototypical 3-and-D guy), Ben Sheppard (nice minutes off the bench), they got nice defensive minutes from Isaiah Jackson, and I've loved TJ McConnell for years, these guys keep the speed high and they put points on the board. I'm guessing they'll wildly overpay Siakam, not sure what happens with Obi Toppin (who has tantalizing moments, but I'm not convinced he'll develop into a reliable baller). I think the Pacers are poised to be pretty good next season (and it'd probably be a mistake to trade away McConnell, but he is exactly what some other teams (Wolves, Nuggets, Lakers) are looking for, so if they could get back two rotation guys for him, it might be worth looking into). 

West

Mavs 108-105 Wolves

Mavs 109-108 Wolves

Wolves 107-116 Mavs

Wolves 105-100 Mavs

Mavs 103-124 Wolves

The Mavs went on the road and won the first two games in Minnesota--double shocker! They made the plays to seal the victories and the Wolves did not. I think losing the first two games just right off doomed the Wolves. The games were all close (though Game Four was the least intensity the Mavs played since Game One against OKC), but the Mavs had the reliable buckets and the Wolves couldn't get there. Both teams played well on defense, the Mavs offense had more flavor, especially late.

Ultimately the banner headline of this series is that the Wolves are not a 4th quarter team. They've got a good mix of size, ball handling, youth/veterans to get through a game, but they don't yet have the zazz that it takes to finish out close games. They need to win big to be secure and I reckon the Wolves should be a good regular season team next year. The Mavs, on the other hand, have two relentless scorers and a bevy of a role players that know how to complement them. The Mavs fairly well cruised through Game Three, inexplicably rolled over in Game Four and then brought the hard wood in Game Five, a laugher (to go 3-0 in Minnesota) and finish the Series in five games. 

The Wolves took a great leap forward this season, not unexpectedly--though I sure didn't think they'd win a Game Seven in Denver. They feature size all over the court and a swarming defense that (okay, I'll say it) reminded me of the Parcells-Lawrence Taylor NYG gang tackling attack. At their best, they were near the top of the West all season long, destroyed the Suns, flat out humbled the great Nikola Jokic (in Game 7 in Denver!) and looked to be the faves to finish off the Mavs. Then the troubles started...we learned that the platoon of Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley is a bit on the half-baked side. Edwards isn't yet a game winner and Conley, savvy vet that he is, just doesn't have the command on the court making their offensive attack too young and simultaneously too old. Throw in that Karl Anthony Towns is an unpredictable crazy man (wow, so many dumb fouls!) and Rudy Gobert goes through stretches of being incapable of scoring (dude, you're never more than two feet from the basket--how can you not score!?!??), and this squad just doesn't have the solidity to play a complete game just yet. I'm not sure Jaden McDaniels was effectively utilized in this series (I would've put him on Kyrie rather than Luka) and Naz Reid's minutes were haphazardly mixed and mingled with Towns. This is still a good team as constituted but (I sure ain't the first to say this) they ought to see what Towns can bring them in a trade package; not a bad player, but pretty expensive for his unpredictability. 

Finals

Mavs @ Celtics

The Celtics dominated the East all season long. The Knicks were spunky but faced too many injuries, the Bucks were up-and-down and when Giannis got hurt, they were just down. I thought the Sixers were pretty overrated and with Embiid's injury woes, they never struck me as terribly dangerous. The Heat had one of their mail-in seasons (about every other year for them). The Cavs and the Magic are eerily similar in their "okay"-ness. And it was the Pacers that emerged in the playoffs--not a fluke, but not as good as the Celtics. So the rest of the East didn't really matter, as none of those squads were likely to compete with the Celtics anyway.

The Mavs missed the playoffs last season due to a team decision to tank for a top 10 pick, which netted them Derrick Lively (so organizationally they made the correct choice). They were a pretty good, top half of the table team in the West for the first half of the season, riding a top flight season by Luka. The real jump was picking up PJ Washington (Hornets) and Daniel Gafford (Wizards) at the trade deadline, which solidified their defense, allowed even more offensive focus for Lively thereby remaking the core into the toughest out this post-season. They rather easily dispatched the Clippers (for, like the 10th year in a row), took advantage of OKC not being ready to go deep in the playoffs (young and awesome....but young), and similarly found a Wolves team that had perhaps overachieved by beating Denver. The Mavs ended up with the best possible path by not having to play the Nuggets or (strangely) the Lakers, and matching up with two teams that just aren't ready yet instead. 

So are the Mavs really the best in the West? No but the West is really tight and Dallas is deservedly among the best. Are the Mavs gonna be back next year? I wouldn't bet on it, way too much competition out there to just anoint them here and now. And seeing Anthony Davis, Giannis and Jokic turn into one-and-dones in rapid succession suggests that there are a lot of great players right now, the depth of even the worst franchise is still pretty amazing, and look how hard Tatum and Brown have worked to get to the pinnacle. 

This should be a fun series. Whereas the Wolves and the Pacers couldn't close games, both of these squads are used to winning and I think a long series is in the cards. So far the Celtics have done it all without Porzingis because the East was, well, so winnable that they didn't even need the guy that has arguably been their offensive table-setter all season long. I would've liked to see him play a little against the Pacers, but hopefully he's practicing at a high level right now, and game shape will come easy to him. They can ease him into the lineup, I think I'd use him as a 6th man curveball to start, see if they can maximize him at both ends right away, then think about getting him back to the starting lineup (and putting Horford back in chaos-off-the-bench mode). The Tatum-Brown-White-Holiday core have been chugging along nicely and while I generally like the production they've been getting from their bench, I suspect Kornet and Brissett will be sharply curtailed to some end of quarter minutes, Hauser and Tillman are out of the rotation from here on out and even Pritchard will have a pretty short leash. So the Porzingis minutes are crucial and if he's not right, that's where it goes badly for the Celtics. They could still win with the bench they've been winning with, but the Mavs are cooking right now, not sure they can count on that. 

The Mavs have Luka at the peak of his powers and Kyrie at his most snake-in-the-grass-ness and a supporting cast that is rounding out nicely. Washington got buckets against OKC (though not as much against anyone else), Gafford got stops, Lively is the perfect complement for Luka and Kyrie at both ends, Exum has had useful minutes keeping the pace off the bench, Josh Green and Jaden Hardy have had nice moments. This is a really good squad and that's with minimal (for various reasons) input from their veteran core of Tim Hardaway, Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell, any of whom could suddenly appear and make plays. This team has everything they need to win. If they come full-on for 7 games, this series will go 7 games.

I think the Celtics are the better team, the Mavs are the deeper team. The Mavs have potentially more reliable offense and even more stifling defense. The Celtics are the big favorite in Vegas but it is not plainly obvious that they are wildly better than the Mavs. Throw in that the Celtics are good for at least one giveaway game per series and it doesn't seem at all crazy that this will go 7 games and anyone can win. 

I fear, though, that the Mavs will either be Luka or Kyrie, whereas the Celtics have an array of scorers that can produce a flourish of buckets. So I expect the Mavs to win on nights when they're shooting with deadly accuracy, but the Celtics should have many nights of more shots, more buckets. 

The real wild card is Porzingis. If he's awesome, the Celtics could wrap this up quick whereas if he's truly awful or unplayabale, the Celtics could fall into a rut of lazy shooting (that is the Celtics kryptonite) and get smoked. I think Porzingis will be good not great, he will be fine, which is really all the Celtics need to bolster everyone else's game. I reckon he'll have one good game, maybe 1-2 bad ones, but for the most part I think he's gonna give 7 good games of production. 

I like the Celtics in 6 (2,3,5,6). I think the Mavs pull a shocker in Game One (fascinating to see Kyrie win it late), then the Celtics re-group, take Games Two and Three, the Mavs claw back Game Four (Luka goes for fitty), the Celtics cruise in Game Five and then seal it on the road.

I'll take Tatum as MVP and Man of the Match in Game Six. I think Brown has at least one balls out game, as does Porzingis and White, Holiday and Horford should all be solid. Looking back, the buzzy love for the Mavs supporting cast will start to fade and then we'll be off to debating whether this is one of the great Celtic champions of all time--and get some wildly conflicting responses. Dang, I just laid it all out, let's see what happens. 

2024 Champions League Final

Real Madrid 2-0 Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund came in as the mighty underdog, the pluckiest team in this year's competition if not the best; Real came in as the overlord, the faves, the ones everyone just expected to win. Well, they did.

I thought Dortmund pretty well dominated the offense for the first 70 or so minutes of the game. They pushed forward effectively numerous times, never finding the back of the net but generally looking more dangerous than Madrid. 

Then in the 71st minute, Dortmund gave up a corner, parried it away rather easily, but they failed to properly clear and Madrid got an extra rip at the goal, resulting in another corner. Not a big deal, really, but something felt off about that play. Even the commentator suggests that it was a bad giveaway by the Dortmund defense. 

Sure enough, seconds later, Carvajal connects on a header, skips past the keeper to the wide open far net. Just like that...

But because Dortmund's attack had been better than Madrid's, it still felt like there was time to reach the draw. Then in 82nd minute, Vini struck off a bad giveaway by the Dortmund defense (check it out: Bellingham is celebrating before Vini even takes the shot). That was ball game, just 10 more minutes of watching the clock run out after that. 

For the most part Dortmund really was the better team on this day, but two bad moments in the backfield is all it takes. Hell of a run by Borussia Dortmund but Real Madrid struck like champions and took home the trophy (and they've already announced that Kylian MBappe is joining the roster).