Monday, September 8, 2025

2025-26 NCAA Football (Week 2)

Games I saw (some of):

(15) Michigan 13-24 (18) Oklahoma

I was impressed with OU, they moved the ball well, had a stout run defense and just generally seemed in control and the better team throughout. I'm curious to see how they hold up in the SEC, coming off a season where they mostly doormatted their way through the year (thought they did stick Alabama in the eye), I didn't have high hopes but now I kinda do. Michigan was okay, I didn't get a feel for what they might be good at, but they still have the whole season ahead of them. Good W for Oklahoma, a non-killer L for Michigan.

(20) Mississippi 30-23 Kentucky

Just kept waiting for Ole Miss to put the Cats away but they just never did. Mind you, I never thought UK was gonna win (I didn't last year either), but the Cats hung around even though their attack is pretty awful. I dunno, man, Ole Miss is supposed to be good but I don't see anything that really makes me think they're gonna do something special in the SEC this year. And as for Kentucky, well, basketball season is right around the corner.

Baylor 48-45 (2OT) (17) Southern Methodist

Fun game! Back and forth throughout, every time I would tell myself Baylor was the better team, SMU would make a play and take the momentum right back. I think Baylor is actually good and I think SMU is overrated, but still time for them to get hot this season, I don't want to write SMU off, it could just be that Baylor is a little bit better. I'm becoming a fan of Baylor's QB.


Top 25

Handled this business

(1) Ohio State, (2) Penn State, (3) Louisiana State, (4) Georgia, (5) Miami, (6) Oregon, (7) Texas, (10) South Carolina, (11) Illinois, (14) Florida State, (16) Iowa State, (18) Oklahoma, (19) Texas A&M, (20) Mississippi, (21) Alabama, (22) Tennessee, (23) Indiana, (24) Texas Tech, (25) Utah


Won but did not impress

(8) Clemson. After the pants-ing they took from LSU last week, I thought they'd come ready to put it in on Troy. Yes, they were weather delays and the game was disjointed, but, man, it took the Tigers a while to get going after a rocky 1st half. Are we sure that QB Klubnick actually has it? Are we sure Clemson is as good as their pre-season top 5 ranking? 


Bad beat

(15) Michigan. I wasn't overly impressed with Michigan but I was impressed with Oklahoma, so I'm willing to chalk this up to the Wolverines getting punked at the home of a top quality opponent. Still time for Michigan to have a great season. 

(17) Southern Methodist. Yeah, when a ranked team loses to an unranked conference foe at home, that probably shouldn't be thought of as a bad beat, but I think Baylor is underrated and I think SMU was probably overrated. After this game, we can reorder that conference and there's still time for SMU to get some wins (their offense can move the ball).


Not so good

(12) Arizona State. Yeah, they fell down 17-0 at Mississippi State, rallied to take the 20-17 lead, and then lost late. Perhaps this was a bad beat, but ASU was in the playoff last year and Mississippi State hasn't had a notable season in a while now, I was expecting more from the Sun Devils. That said, losing on the road in the SEC is hardly a black eye, but we all thought they would win, then we thought they wouldn't, then we thought they would and then they didn't. That's a rollercoaster of disappointment. 

(13) Florida. Figured the Gators would be going in the "won but did not impress" bucket, but they forgot to win. I'm not surprised that South Florida gave the Gators a game--I thought they would!--but I also thought that would inspire the Gators to step up, make plays and secure a hard-earned W. Nope.


Next week's intriguing matches:

Wisconsin @ (19) Alabama (I dunno, this one could be kinda fun)

(6) Georgia @ (15) Tennessee (game o' the week)

(18) South Florida @ (5) Miami (some hot CW action! South Florida has two ranked wins in a row to start the season, are the Hurricanes gonna handle their business or are they gonna get punked?)

Arkansas @ (17) Mississippi (wouldn't be shocked if the Razorbacks give Ole Miss a game)

Florida @ (3) Louisiana State (I thought Florida would respect South Florida, but I am sure that LSU will respect Florida; might be a blow out but it should be intense)

(16) Texas A&M @ (8) Notre Dame (fun game last year, should be a fun one this year, too)

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

2025-26 NCAA Football (Week 1)

Games I saw (some of):

(1) Texas 7-14 (3) Ohio State

Sludgefest of a game, thought both defenses were really strong. The buzz about this game was the uninspiring debut of QB Arch Manning, the pre-season fave for Heisman (why?), and, well, he wasn't particularly good. That said, the Buckeye offense wasn't vastly better than the Longhorns. The Buckeyes had two good drives and scored on both; the Longhorns had three good drives and came up short inside the 10 yard line on two of them (you could argue both of those drives were really better than the one they scored on). The Buckeyes were the better team on both sides, but the Longhorns were hardly humiliated, so some of that chatter is wildly overblown. I think both of these teams are really good, I suspect both will be in the playoff and really the home field advantage was probably the real difference. 

(9) Louisiana State 17-10 (4) Clemson

Always important to remember when two college heavyweights get together, often the 2nd half is totally different from the 1st. The 1st half had more offense than the Longhorn-Buckeye match but not much as both teams moved the ball a little bit but for the most part stalled. Clemson had one nice drive before the half and were up 10-3. After that, I thought LSU kinda dominated the rest of the game. Clemson didn't get blown out but they were clearly not as good as LSU, who struck me as maybe the revelation of the opening week: they've got a for-real QB, they can move the ball and their D is gonna be stingy. Not ready to give up on Clemson, I suspect they'll hang around all year (thought Florida State and Miami look like stiffer competition than may have been anticipated).

(8) Alabama 17-31 Florida State

This was an eye-opener. Alabama was primed for a real bounce back season--and that could still happen--whereas the Seminoles were so bad last year (so bad!) that I was already ready to write them off. Record scratch! The Seminoles looked damn good! Their offense is scary, that pass rush is for real and whatever ailed them last year seems to be in the rearview. They took it to the Tide from beginning to end and were the better team on both sides. Now Alabama was starting a rookie QB, had some injuries and were on the road, so I'm not ready to write off the Tide just yet but...man, their schedule is rugged and if they don't get the O-line on track, then their season could go sideways pronto. But the Seminoles were the revelation, they look they're back from whatever hole they fell into last year.

(6) Notre Dame 24-27 (10) Miami

I was impressed with the Hurricanes (though maybe not with their too-conservative coach). I was skeptical of QB Carson Beck, who just never did it for me in his time at UGA and seemed to be shooting his mouth off in embarrassing ways all summer. But, he looked good out there in a Hurricane uni, guess the change of scenery is doing him well. This was a good matchup, felt like Notre Dame was the better team early on, but the Hurricanes definitely took over the game after half time, almost low-keyed the game away, but managed to hold on to the W. Don't want to diss the Irish, though, I felt like they weren't playing their best football, feels like this team is going to be better than this for the rest of the season, so we;ll see if they can maintain the top 10-ness (I think they will). 


Top 25

Handled their business

(2) Penn State, (3) Ohio State, (5) Georgia, (7) Oregon, (9) Louisiana State, (10) Miami, (11) Arizona State, (12) Illinois, (13) South Carolina, (14) Michigan, (15) Florida, (16) Southern Methodist, (18) Oklahoma, (19) Texas A&M, (21) Mississippi, (22) Iowa State (twice), (23) Texas Tech, (24) Tennessee


Won but did not impress

(17) Kansas State (week 1). I dunno, man, could be that North Dakota is actually pretty good, but if K State is gonna hang in the top 20, they need to take care of their cream puffs at home, and they struggled hard to put this team away. We'll see: this might be the real wake up call after getting ground down in Ireland the week before.

(20) Indiana. Didn't exactly dominate Old Dominion at home, I really don't think that's too much to ask of a team that made the playoff last year and fancies themselves a gunslinging sorta offense. 


Bad beat

(1) Texas. Unimpressed with the Longhorns? How about you go to Ohio State and win a game, show me how its done. Despite the chirping, UT handled themselves well on the road to open the season and I fully expect they will hang around the top 10 all year long. 

(4) Clemson. I think LSU is really good, something we couldn't have known two weeks ago. I suspect Clemson will be around at the end of the year and this L likely won't be a killer for them.

(17) Kansas State (week 0). (Two weeks in and they've got a Bad Beat and a Did Not Impress, the Wildcats are not off to a great start) Going to Ireland and playing an unknown foe can't be easy, so I'm willing to look the other way, but following that L with a scuffling save at home to a D2 squad is not filling me with confidence. 


Not so good

(8) Alabama. I think Florida State is good and this L won't be a killer for the Tide this year, but, man, they really could've used that win. If they can up their QB play, they can still be a solid team, this season isn't over for the Tide, but, they need to be flawless from here (and that's a tough ask for anyone).

(25) Boise State. Didn't see their shellacking at South Florida, but a friend told me the game was actually a lot closer than the 34-7 score suggests. Oooooooooo-kay. 


Next week's intriguing matches

Iowa @ (16) Iowa State (they got a big W in Ireland but can the Cyclones win in Iowa?)

Baylor @ (17) Southern Methodist (I thought Baylor handled themselves okay against Auburn, think they're gonna give the Mustangs a game this week)

Oklahoma State @ (6) Oregon (the Cowboys haven't been all the great lately but they're not a cream puff, curious to see if the Ducks can put them away early)

(15) Michigan @ (18) Oklahoma (here we go: game of the week; I have no idea what to expect from either team, both were pretty soft last year, let's see if either of them are ready to walk it)

Thursday, June 5, 2025

2024-25 NBA Final (Preview)

Not much to preview, really. The Thunder have been the best team in the NBA all season long, the Pacers were the 3rd best team in the East and had a strong run through the playoffs, a worthy representative of the Eastern Conference (but no one thinks they're gonna beat OKC). 

The sport media wanted the Knicks to be here instead of the Pacers but, well, the Knicks were overrated and lucky all the way through (I'm sorry, but it's true: the Knicks weren't that fucking good this year!). The Knicks pushed around the Pistons, who just weren't ready to finish games (though I thought the were the better team in all 6 games), and they were lucky enough to watch the Celtics self-destruct (go back and watch the games, dude, the Celtics should've won in 4). Then the Pacers had too much offense for the Knicks to keep up. 

As for the Pacers, they caught the Bucks with injuries (as is the usual for the Bucks) and though the Cavs were arguably the only regular season team to even come close to the Thunder, the Cavs just weren't ready to take the next step (and the Pacers were). The Pacers started slow this season but after the all-star break, they were pretty awesome and their run through the East was well deserved, they were the most complete ready-to-compete team in the Conference.  

The Thunder murdered everyone all year long, then they mauled the Grizzlies (they even tried to even away Game Three and just couldn't manage to lose), then faced their toughest opponent in the Nuggets, who took them to Game Seven, and then pushed aside the Wolves rather easily. So, just to recap: all non-Jokic teams got thoroughly (if casually) destroyed by OKC. 

Right off the bat: I'm going Thunder in 5. I just think they're too good, but they'll probably fall asleep long enough for the Pacers to steal one. 

Game One could be the test. If OKC stomps the Pacers, well, that's probably what this series will be. 
If the Pacers steal a W in OKC, then we've definitely got a Series. 
But if the Pacers compete, keep it close, make OKC sweat, that actually might be the best outcome. 

I'd suggest that the best possible series is something like when the Nuggets beat the Lakers on their way to the championship a few years back: the Nuggets swept the Lakers, but all four games were tight and riveting. A roller coaster of a sweep is probably the most interesting outcome. Why? Well, for the Pacers to win the series, I think something would have to go disastrously wrong for OKC and I don't want to see anyone go out like that. I think the Pacers are good enough to make the Thunder work, but I don't think they're good enough to win four of the next seven games against them. 

So four really tight, compelling, nailbiting games that OKC has to go to their limits to win....that could happen. I think both of these squads are offensively good enough to keep games close, but I think OKC's defense will make a few extra plays that the Pacers won't be able to match. That said, I can totally see a game where neither team plays any defense, a 135-129 kinda game, which could go either way. 

For the Pacers to win, they need to jump out to big leads early on and then hold on to them. Unfortunately, this is not typically how they've been winning in the playoffs so far. Their best wins have been sneaky hanging-around kinda games where they get hot late and steal W's in the 4th. I don't think that's gonna work against the Thunder, who never stop scoring and never stop playing defense. The Pacers need to dominate the 1st quarter to hang with the Thunder. 

The Pacers have a decent chance to steal Game One. If they can surprise the Thunder right away (as the Nuggets did), perhaps they can make a series of this. I'm not trying to say the Pacers can't win, not at all. I was a fan of their run to the final four last year and I was kinda shocked that the started so slow this season, thinking that they would hit the ground running and be a real contender for the #1 seed in the East. They started surprisingly slow, but once they got going, they've been really good for several months now, the Pacers are not a fluke. But I think the West is so much better than the East and the Thunder has performed better against better opponents all year long, I just don't see how that stops now. We'll see.

2025 Champions League

Paris-St. Germaine 5-0 Inter-Milan

Yeah, well, that kinda sucked. Pretty easy to sum this one up: Inter sucked. Inter had no attack, couldn't possess the ball at all, never even came close to being dangerous around the goal and couldn't withstand PSG's constant pressure. Uh, yeah, not much more to it, this game was over quick and it stayed over.

Inter brilliantly handled Bayern Munich and then went to toe-to-toe with Barcelona, so even though I was never quite as impressed Inter as, say, Barca or PSG or Real Madrid, I was impressed with how they kept getting W's. Even though PSG seemed like the much more talented side, I felt like Inter would hang--just because they had been hanging with better teams. But, man, they just got straight smoked in this game, which is, I guess, the proper outcome. 

Kudos to PSG, they were so much better than their opponent, that they looked little bored out there by the end.  

Monday, May 26, 2025

2024-25 NBA Conference Finals (after 3 games)

East

Pacers 138-135 (OT) Knicks

Pacers 114-109 Knicks

Knicks 106-100 Pacers

Game One is an all-timer! The game was fairly even for most of the first 3 quarters, then the Knicks had a run and built a nice lead that they mostly held onto. With about 4 minutes left, the Knicks were 118-104 and this is where I checked out--thankfully I skipped ahead rather than just turning the game off and was able to catch most of the astounding comeback the Pacers had to push the game into OT and steal it. The Knicks just fell asleep, they thought the game was won and they let the Pacers get hot (Aaron Nesmith!) and before they knew it, they were down even though they more or less had the game won. In Game Two, the Pacers were the better team, the Knicks looked sluggish and suddenly the series looked like it might be a walkover. That walkover vibe extended into Game Three, when the Pacers were up by 20 shortly before halftime. Unfortunately, the Pacers forgot to play the rest of the game, and the Knicks slowly but surely chipped away at the lead and overtook them well before the end. The weird wrinkle: I thought the Knicks were a lot more effective on offense with Jalen Brunson on the bench, I wonder what effect that'll have going forward. 

I thought the Pacers would win in 7 (yeah, in New York), then I figured the Pacers had a good shot at a sweep. Now I'm not sure what's going on. The Pacers should take Game Four, putting them up 3-1 heading back to NYC, if they don't then this series is still up in the air. As it is, the Pacers are the better team, the more complete team (though their offense gets dangerously stagnant at times) and should still win. Furthermore, the Knicks (I am convinced!) are not as good as they've gotten so far and in real danger of total collapse; but....they are wily and weird and I wouldn't want to fuck with them. The Pacers really missed a golden opportunity in Game Three, and now this hand grenade might go off in their hands. I still like the Pacers--hell, I like them in 5! But, we'll see.


West

Wolves 88-114 Thunder

Wolves 103-118 Thunder 

Thunder 101-143 Wolves

The first two games were similar: the two squads were evenly matched until about halfway through the 3rd quarter, when the Wolves got tight, the Thunder got loose and suddenly it was over. The Thunder's smothering defense is vastly more effective when they have the lead, so when they get up by double digits in the 4th quarter, the game is pretty much over. 

But Game Three showed the flip side of the Thunder: the Wolves rocked them early on and the Thunder couldn't get back into the game and it snowballed out of control on them and this was over quick. The Wolves are a good team, they can hang with the Thunder, but the first two games are probably more indicative of what this series is, Game Three was a nice biscuit for the Wolves but I wouldn't count on a drubbing like that again. Indeed, I think the Thunder have a drubbing game still left in them, so the Wolves better take Game Four and even up this series or it could get ugly for them. 

I had the Thunder in 6 (yeah, in Minneapolis) and I think I'll stick with that. But I like the Wolves to take Game Four tonight and push the Thunder back on their heels. From there, I like the Thunder to pull it together and get it done. We'll see. 

2024-25 NHL Conference Finals (after 3 games)

East

Panthers 5-2 Hurricanes

Panthers 5-0 Hurricanes

Hurricanes 2-6 Panthers

Yawn. This series was over almost instantly, the Panthers are better at both ends and in every way than the Hurricanes, who are struggling to even look competitive. I'd be kinda shocked if this isn't over in 4. 


West

Oilers 3-6 Stars

Oilers 3-0 Stars

Stars 1-6 Oilers

In Game One, the Oilers were up 3-1 going into the 3rd period. Out of the blue, the Stars dominated the shit out of the Oilers for 20 minutes and easily took Game One. Other than the 3rd period of Game One, the Oilers have completely controlled this series, again, better at both ends than their hapless opponent. They did give away a game, so this one will be going 5 games instead of 4, but this probably should've been a sweep. 

We are headed to a rematch of last year's Final, which was a wild series with each team running 3 straight before the Oilers kinda collapsing in Game Seven. I suspect this year's series will be tighter but should still go 7 games. 

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

2024-25 NBA Playoffs (2nd round after 4 games)

East

Cavs 126-104 Pacers

Cavs 109-129 Pacers

After limping through the first 2 games, the Cavs finally showed up for Game Three and convincingly thumped the Pacers on their own home floor. Then for Game Four, the Cavs didn't show up at all--the score is not indicative of the level of blow out, actually the Cavs balled out in the 4th quarter just to get it to a 20-point loss. The Pacers have surged to a dominant 3-1 lead in the series, they are in command. Donovan Mitchell left the game after halftime but I believe he'll be back for Game Five but even still the Cavs just look bewildered out there. Darius Garland is playing but doesn't look fully healthy and though the rest of the Cavs are ready to play, they have yet to look like they even want to be here. I'm not shocked the Pacers are hanging with the Cavs but I am shocked at how out of it the Cavs look so far. Still a chance they pull it together and come all the way back, but I seriously doubt it. I kinda like the Pacers to win Game Five--and I'd definitely take them to win Game Six back in Indy. 

Celtics 115-93 Knicks 

Celtics 113-121 Knicks

The Celtics have been playing a dangerous game letting the first two games get away from them--even though they were clearly obviously undoubtedly the better team! They finally played all the way to the end in Game Three and took it easily. Then disaster struck: in Game Four Jaysun Tatum (who had been balling out) fell over awkwardly, rolled around in pain and was carted off in a wheelchair; haven't seen the reports yet but the way he went down looked like the worst nightmare: torn Achilles (we'll see).  Game Four was a more even contest but the Knicks were much better after halftime and went on a tear in the 4th quarter to seal it. The Knicks are up 3-1 in the 2nd round and this is the first game where they actually looked like the superior team this playoffs (yeah, I said it before and I still believe: the Pistons were better than the Knicks in all 6 games of the 1st round and somehow managed to lose four of them). The Celtics without Tatum are not gonna be able to win three straight on the Knicks--especially considering they already outplayed the Knicks in three straight games and gave away two of them! Jaylin Brown and Kristaps Porzingis have not been good this post-season, so unless those two really come to play, then the Celtics will not be moving on. 

So pretty much all season long, I thought the Celtics and the Cavs would be dueling in the Eastern Conference Finals but it does not look like that's gonna happen. Looking like a rematch of last year's Knick-Pacer quarterfinal, a series I rather enjoyed. 


West

Thunder 104-113 (OT) Nuggets

Thunder 92-87 Nuggets

I actually missed Game Three of this series, an overtime thriller that seemed by most all accounts to be an instant classic. I did, however, catch Game Four which was a sludgy slog of a game where everyone looked beat before the game even started and no one was able to rise above the non-stop defense. The series is even now but I still think the Thunder are the better team, the deeper team, and I think their defensive game plan has finally caught up to Nikola Jokic. Aaron Gordon is playing his ass off, Christian Braun is all hustle and Jamal Murray has moments, but the Nuggets haven't got much out of Michael Porter Jr (he's obviously hurt) and the minutes they're getting from Russell Westbrook are the epitome of two-steps-forward-one-step-back. The Thunder aren't exactly dominating, Jokic is still a human speed bump, but I do think they're the better team and this series is toughening them up before our eyes. My one concern: it feels like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is looking to pass a little more than he should, he's deferring when I think he needs to be looking to score more, but maybe I'm just seeing things. Jaylin Williams is having a nice--not great--series, Chet Holgren is hustling but not dominating, the supporting cast is holding on but not excelling and yet I think the Thunder are good and getting better and when they finally get away from Jokic, I think they might blow up. I still like the Thunder to win the series, wouldn't be surprised if they took the next two games.

Wolves 102-97 Warriors

Wolves 117-110 Warriors

I think the Wolves are better than the Warriors anyway, but once you remove Steph Curry from the Warrior lineup, it's really not even much of a contest any more. Jimmy Butler is trying, but his one-man-wrecking-crew game isn't as effective in the West as it was in the East and Draymond Green's antics are looking more and more desperate (remember when Dirk Diggler was all coked out of his mind and his life fell apart in the last half of Boogie Nights? Yeah, something like that except this is less fun to watch). Anthony Edwards is casually brilliant, Rudy Gobert looks like a real stopper in the middle again, Julius Randle is playing his way to a big free agent signing this summer and the rest of that cast is pitching in nicely. I think this will be over in 5, then the Wolves get to relax as OKC and Denver keep slugging.