2025 NFL (after 4 games)

AFC

4-0

Bills

Well, the Bills defense is suspect--even more than the last few seasons--but so far it feels like QB Josh Allen is ready to outscore all comers. So far, the Bills are the best team in the league but there's a lot of season left.  The Bills were my pre-season pick to win it all and for now I've got no reason to change course.

3-1

Chargers, Colts, Jags, Steelers

The Chargers are probably gonna charge but so far they look tougher and sharper than the squad that's been fumbling away 4th quarters for more than a decade. QB Herbert looks like the crafty veteran the nerds have been accusing him of being since he arrived in the league and the defense just looks better this year, more complete. I dunno, for now they look like Buffalo's real competition. 

The Colts are getting the Danny Dimes-a-ssance and suddenly it appears like their inability to find a competent QB has masked that the rest of the roster isn't bad. A QB that isn't a disaster is maybe all they needed (especially in their so-so division). I am slow to give up on QB's and, man, Danny Dimes has had moments in this league, and so far he seems to be exactly what the Colts have needed for a while now. Will they still be around at the end of the year? I can see it, actually.

I'll say it: I like the Jags. Their one L so far was to the Bengals and, man, the Jags worked really hard to lose that game. The blame that QB Lawrence has been getting is unwarranted (I think the receivers deserve the share of the blame) and that defense is legit good all over the field. I think the Jags are actually good and though they will surely have their stumbles throughout the season (because they're not used to winning), I expect them to be in the hunt for their division or a wild card spot.

The Steelers are the up/down team: they'll have weeks where they look damn good on both sides of the ball and then weeks where they just flat out suck. Rodgers has moments of mojo and moments of over the hill and their defense is pretty similar. Can that mediocrity get them into the post-season? Maybe, but I suspect they won't last long if they get there. 

2-2

Chiefs, Broncos, Patriots, Bengals

Clearly it's too early to give up on Mahomes but the Chiefs really do look like they're falling back to the pack--especially with the Chargers and Broncos stepping up. Don't count them out but they sure don't look like the world beaters they've been for as long as anyone can remember.

The Broncos are....okay. I think they're pretty good on both sides of the ball, good enough to beat bad teams but not necessarily good enough to hang with the real good ones. They'll be in the playoff hunt but I suspect they come up short.  

The Patriots are moving in the right direction but their next match--Monday night in Buffalo--will show us if they're really ready to compete. I can see the Pats being up and down all season long, good enough to be in the playoff hunt...maybe. But this is probably more of a building-for-next-year kinda team.

I wasn't in on the Bengals this season and if they have to go 6-ish weeks without QB Joe Burrow, I don't see how they hang. They got lucky against the Browns and the Jags, they should probably be winless.

1-3

Ravens, Texans, Browns, Raiders, Dolphins

The Ravens are the best 1-3 team in the league. Yeah, the defense is not that good, the offense has yet to gel and they're currently racked by injuries. But so far they've lost to the Bills (game of the year so far), Lions and Chiefs, so I'm not worried about them yet. 

The Texans haven't gotten going and I'm not sure why. I can't help thinking this season might get away from them before they get hot and snag some W's down the stretch. I still like that D and that QB but I also like the Colts and Jags more than I thought I would, so gonna be tough for the Texans to compete. Feels like this might be an off year for the Texans (keep an eye on them for next season).

The Browns have a hell of a defense but I don't think they'll score any points., so I just can't see them winning too many games.

The Raiders are frisky but they look like such a slopfest of a team that I reckon they'll get a few upset W's, but I can't see them sniffing the post-season.

The Dolphins are not particularly good at anything, moving in the wrong direction. But they still play hard, they'll compete week to week, they'll score a few highlights but I don't think they're gonna win many games. 

0-4

Jets, Titans

The Jets are not particularly good at anything. but I doubt that they are as bad as they've been so far. I can see the Jets sucking pretty bad and then piling up some upsets down the stretch.

The Titans are the worst team in the league. I like their rookie QB, but the coach seems like an idiot and there's not a wealth of talent on either side. They're my #1 pick for the #1 pick. 

NFC

4-0

Eagles

They just keep chugging along but somehow I'm still not sure if they're any good. I can see them going undefeated or finishing with a losing record, I dunno. 

3-1

Lions, Bucs, Seahawks, Rams, Niners

I think the Lions are the cream of the NFC. They weren't ready for opening week at Lambeau but they've been killing it since then and I think they're the team to beat going forward.

The Bucs manage to squeeze out more W's than L's and I can't tell if its because they just find a way to win or if they ought to be way better and are just getting by. They were my pre-season pick for the Super Bowl and, I dunno, I guess they could be. We'll see. 

The Seahawks and the Rams and the Niners all seem overacheiving so far. The Seahawks are strangely good on the road (but strangely soft at home), the Niners have a weird roster but seem to get W's, and the Rams have one of my fave QB's but I'm not a huge fan of any of the rest of that roster. Once they start playing each other one of these teams will emerge and one will fade, not sure which is which. 

2-2 (2-1-1)

Packers, Vikings, Falcons, Cards, Commanders, Bears

The Packers managed to give away a W against the Browns (eh, that was a fluke) and turned a W into a Tie in Dallas (eh, they should've won by 2 touchdowns). But I still think that along with the Lions, the Packers are a top tier squad, they just need to get their shit together.

I think the Vikings are a mirage, I just can't see them hanging in a tough division with a rookie QB.

I like the Falcons, plenty of weapons of offense and it feels like they're finally starting to figure it out--though getting shut out in Carolina is still a head scratcher. Can they win that division? If they can find the consistency that has eluded the Bucs, I think so.  

The Cards are not the fourth best team in their division. Are they the best? Could be. But I don't see a wild card coming out of that division, so they need to win it. 

I think the Commanders overachieved last year and it stands to reason that they'll fall toward the middle. In the wild card hunt, I reckon, but I think they come up short. 

I am not in on the Bears at all. The defense is pretty good but they still haven't figured out the offense and I think that division is too tough for them to experiment for much longer. 

1-3 (1-2-1)

Cowboys, Giants, Panthers

The Cowboys have a good offense and a terrible defense. They'll win some games and should be a fun watch but I can't see them as a playoff squad. 

The Giants have finally settled on their rookie QB but Jaxson Dart is a wild man (just slightly this side of Anthony Richardson) and I can't imagine he makes it a full season and though I like him, I doubt he'll make much of a difference this season. They do have a nasty pass rush, though, they'll steal some W's. 

The Panthers are terrible. That's all.  

0-4

Saints

The Saints are not good but--god love 'em!--this franchise does not believe in tanking--they're out there trying to win the Super Bowl...and not coming close. They play hard, they play with pride, they'll get some W's, doubt they'll get the #1 pick but they won't be far off (Nussmeyer on their wish list, I presume?).  

2025-26 NCAA Football (Week 5)

Games I saw (some of):

(21) Southern Cal 32-34 (23) Illinois

Fun game! Two evenly matched teams, Southern Cal may well be the better squad, but Illinois expertly worked the clock to get the final possession and that's what it took. Illinois has already had their staggering defeat and since I don't see them beating Ohio State or Penn State, I reckon their path to the tournament is over, but they're still gonna be a tough out; Southern Cal, on the other hand, is still in play and if they can build, they might still turn into something.

(1) Ohio State 24-6 Washington

The Huskies played hard but they just couldn't hang with the Buckeyes. After halftime, Ohio State dialed up enough offense to convincingly put away UW, but UW's defense was pretty great in the 1st half. Just another ho-hum W for the Buckeyes, but a strong showing for the Huskies, wonder if they can hang around in the Big 10.

(4) Louisiana State 19-24 (13) Mississippi

Really impressed with Ole Miss's D-line. LSU's early season victory over Clemson seemed so impressive at the time, but...Clemson...so now I'm not so sure. I thought they would handle the Rebels, but it was the other way around. Ole Miss controlled the whole game through their pass rush and run stopping ability. I'm still not that in on Ole Miss, but this was a good W for them. The SEC is clearly up for grabs this year.

(6) Oregon 30-24 (2OT) (3) Penn State

Fun game! Why doesn't Penn State play their 4th quarter offense for the whole game? Both teams plodded along, I thought Oregon was generally the better side throughout, but once they took a 2 TD lead in the 4th quarter, Penn State came storming back....so why do they always wait til the last minute to get their offense going? I hate to pile on Penn State, I think they've really built something special there, but sometimes they seem doomed by their own conservativeness. Oregon is a good squad, can't wait to see them up against the Buckeyes. 

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Ohio State, (6) Oregon, (9) Texas A&M, (11) Indiana, (13) Mississippi, (14) Iowa State, (15) Tennessee, (17) Alabama, (18) Vanderbilt, (20) Missouri, (22) Notre Dame, (23) Illinois, (25) Brigham Young

Won but did not impress

(16) Georgia Tech (I dunno, normally I'm sympathetic to conference W's on the road, but I want to see Tech dominate a lesser opponent and Wake Forest probably should've won; not a good look)

Bad beat

(4) Louisiana State (disappointing L but Ole Miss's defense is legit, they were the better team)

(21) Southern Cal (good showing on the road in conference, I think they're probably better than Illinois but the Illini did what they needed to do; tough L for the Trojans)

Not so good

(3) Penn State (if you're gonna win a championship, you've got to beat Oregon at home, I know it ain't easy but it's that simple)

(5) Georgia (do you realize Bama has beaten UGA 10 of the last 11 times they've played? That's mind blowing considering how dominant UGA was for a while there)

(8) Florida State (gotta beat UVA on the road, I'm sorry but them's the rules)

(24) Texas Christian (I thought they had Arizona State beat but...they did not)

Next week's intriguing matches

(16) Vanderbilt @ (10) Alabama (Last year Vandy routed Bama, this year Vandy is ranked--what the hell is going on? When will this madness stop?!?!?)

(3) Miami @ (18) Florida State (I think Miami is going to pummel FSU but maybe not; the Seminoles probably didn't deserve to drop so much for an OT loss at UVA, perhaps that will give them the spark they need)

Mississippi State @ (6) Texas A&M (A&M might be for real or they might not, I have no idea; but the SEC is a gauntlet and A&M must beware of traps; we'll see if they're up for this one)

2025-26 NCAA Football (Week 4)

Games I saw (some of):

(22) Auburn 17-24 (11) Oklahoma

I like Oklahoma, that QB Mateer is for real, but I thought Auburn was mostly snakebit in this match. Easy to say OU is the better team--they might be--but if Auburn can calm their jittery nerves, I think they might be really good (or at least a tough out in the SEC).

(17) Texas Tech 34-10 (16) Utah

Tech dominated this game, felt like Utah couldn't move the ball at all (at home!). I think Utah is pretty good, which makes Tech look like a for-real tourney team right now. 

(21Michigan 30-27 Nebraska

Fun match. Nebraska hung tough, did not get intimidated, hung around, had their chances late. I like Michigan but I'm not sure they're gonna rip through the Big 10 this season.

Top 25

Handled their business

(3) Louisiana State, (4) Miami, (6) Oregon, (7) Florida State, (8) Texas, (11) Oklahoma, (13) Mississippi, (15) Tennessee, (17) Texas Tech, (18) Georgia Tech, (19) Indiana, (20) Vanderbilt, (21) Michigan, (23) Missouri, (24) Notre Dame, (25) Southern Cal

Bad beat

(22) Auburn. I thought the Tigers were pretty good in Norman, more unlucky than incompetent.

Not so good

(9) Illinois. Boy, Indiana whooped up on the Illini like an act of God! Illini got smooooooked at home.

(16) Utah. They were never in the game against Texas Tech.

Next week's intriguing matches:

(21) Southern Cal @ (23) Illinois (so, a bounce back game for the Illini or another shellacking?)

(4) Louisiana State @ (13) Mississippi (I think LSU is gonna stomp Ole Miss, we'll see)

Auburn @ (9) Texas A&M (A&M is good but I'm not out on Auburn, they are frisky and A&M better bring their best game)

(6) Oregon @ (3) Penn State (monster offense vs monster defense, should be a good one)

(17) Alabama @ (5) Georgia (How good is Alabama? How good is Georgia? I dunno, let's see)

2025-26 NCAA Football (Week 3)

Games I saw (some of):

Florida 10-20 LSU

Hung out with a friend over the weekend, just kinda in and out of football but all I remember of this game was a series of great punts and Florida turning the ball over (and over and over). LSU struck me as the better team on both sides but I was flabbergasted to see that Florida had more total yards than LSU--really? All I saw from them was interceptions and punts. Oh well, not my best watch, but felt like LSU handled their business, but perhaps the take away is that Florida was still in this game despite their inability to finish.

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Ohio State, (2) Penn State, (3) Louisiana State, (4) Oregon, (5) Miami, (6) Georgia, (7) Texas, (9) Illinois, (13) Oklahoma, (16) Texas A&M, (17) Mississippi, (19) Alabama, (20) Utah, (21) Texas Tech, (22) Indiana, (23) Michigan, (25) Missouri

Won but did not impress

(14) Iowa State (seems like it took a while to put away Arkansas State, not a good look)

(24) Auburn (didn't exactly dominate South Alabama but they've got a trip to Oklahoma coming up, so maybe they were just getting by)

Bad beat

(15) Tennessee (the Vols had their chance and maybe they should've beat UGA, but taking UGA to OT is nothing to be ashamed of)

(18) South Florida (coming off strong W's over Boise State and Florida, felt like the Bulls were set up for a shocker in Miami but the Hurricanes didn't fall for the okey-doke (good for them); not a bad L, still got some faith that South Florida might actually be pretty good)

Not so good

(8) Notre Dame (man, really should've put away Texas A&M at home, not a bad L but after a loss in Miami, the Irish need to get some W's and this would've been a good one)

(11) South Carolina (ugh! Blown out at home by Vandy? Not good)

(12) Clemson (another weird effort from Clemson, another L, this season is not going well for the Tigers so far)

Next week's intriguing matches:

(17) Texas Tech @ (16) Utah (should be a fun one--dang is that a 10am local start time? The hell....?)

(22) Auburn @ (11) Oklahoma (Auburn floundered around with South Alabama last week, so are they wonky or were they saving it up for this match? I like OU's QB, they should win at home but let's see if Auburn has a trick up their sleeve)

(21) Michigan @ Nebraska (Michigan is nice but I'm still suspicious of their offense and, well, the Huskers have looked kinda good so far, just curious to see if the Wolverines can avoid the trap)

Florida @ (4) Miami (feels like the Hurricanes should mop the floor with the Gators, we'll see)

(9) Illinois @ (19) Indiana (I suspect (at least) one of these teams isn't actually any good, let's see which one steps forward)

2025-26 NCAA Football (Week 2)

Games I saw (some of):

(15) Michigan 13-24 (18) Oklahoma

I was impressed with OU, they moved the ball well, had a stout run defense and just generally seemed in control and the better team throughout. I'm curious to see how they hold up in the SEC, coming off a season where they mostly doormatted their way through the year (thought they did stick Alabama in the eye), I didn't have high hopes but now I kinda do. Michigan was okay, I didn't get a feel for what they might be good at, but they still have the whole season ahead of them. Good W for Oklahoma, a non-killer L for Michigan.

(20) Mississippi 30-23 Kentucky

Just kept waiting for Ole Miss to put the Cats away but they just never did. Mind you, I never thought UK was gonna win (I didn't last year either), but the Cats hung around even though their attack is pretty awful. I dunno, man, Ole Miss is supposed to be good but I don't see anything that really makes me think they're gonna do something special in the SEC this year. And as for Kentucky, well, basketball season is right around the corner.

Baylor 48-45 (2OT) (17) Southern Methodist

Fun game! Back and forth throughout, every time I would tell myself Baylor was the better team, SMU would make a play and take the momentum right back. I think Baylor is actually good and I think SMU is overrated, but still time for them to get hot this season, I don't want to write SMU off, it could just be that Baylor is a little bit better. I'm becoming a fan of Baylor's QB.

Top 25

Handled this business

(1) Ohio State, (2) Penn State, (3) Louisiana State, (4) Georgia, (5) Miami, (6) Oregon, (7) Texas, (10) South Carolina, (11) Illinois, (14) Florida State, (16) Iowa State, (18) Oklahoma, (19) Texas A&M, (20) Mississippi, (21) Alabama, (22) Tennessee, (23) Indiana, (24) Texas Tech, (25) Utah

Won but did not impress

(8) Clemson. After the pants-ing they took from LSU last week, I thought they'd come ready to put it in on Troy. Yes, they were weather delays and the game was disjointed, but, man, it took the Tigers a while to get going after a rocky 1st half. Are we sure that QB Klubnick actually has it? Are we sure Clemson is as good as their pre-season top 5 ranking? 

Bad beat

(15) Michigan. I wasn't overly impressed with Michigan but I was impressed with Oklahoma, so I'm willing to chalk this up to the Wolverines getting punked at the home of a top quality opponent. Still time for Michigan to have a great season. 

(17) Southern Methodist. Yeah, when a ranked team loses to an unranked conference foe at home, that probably shouldn't be thought of as a bad beat, but I think Baylor is underrated and I think SMU was probably overrated. After this game, we can reorder that conference and there's still time for SMU to get some wins (their offense can move the ball).

Not so good

(12) Arizona State. Yeah, they fell down 17-0 at Mississippi State, rallied to take the 20-17 lead, and then lost late. Perhaps this was a bad beat, but ASU was in the playoff last year and Mississippi State hasn't had a notable season in a while now, I was expecting more from the Sun Devils. That said, losing on the road in the SEC is hardly a black eye, but we all thought they would win, then we thought they wouldn't, then we thought they would and then they didn't. That's a rollercoaster of disappointment. 

(13) Florida. Figured the Gators would be going in the "won but did not impress" bucket, but they forgot to win. I'm not surprised that South Florida gave the Gators a game--I thought they would!--but I also thought that would inspire the Gators to step up, make plays and secure a hard-earned W. Nope.

Next week's intriguing matches:

Wisconsin @ (19) Alabama (I dunno, this one could be kinda fun)

(6) Georgia @ (15) Tennessee (game o' the week)

(18) South Florida @ (5) Miami (some hot CW action! South Florida has two ranked wins in a row to start the season, are the Hurricanes gonna handle their business or are they gonna get punked?)

Arkansas @ (17) Mississippi (wouldn't be shocked if the Razorbacks give Ole Miss a game)

Florida @ (3) Louisiana State (I thought Florida would respect South Florida, but I am sure that LSU will respect Florida; might be a blow out but it should be intense)

(16) Texas A&M @ (8) Notre Dame (fun game last year, should be a fun one this year, too)

2025-26 NCAA Football (Week 1)

Games I saw (some of):

(1) Texas 7-14 (3) Ohio State

Sludgefest of a game, thought both defenses were really strong. The buzz about this game was the uninspiring debut of QB Arch Manning, the pre-season fave for Heisman (why?), and, well, he wasn't particularly good. That said, the Buckeye offense wasn't vastly better than the Longhorns. The Buckeyes had two good drives and scored on both; the Longhorns had three good drives and came up short inside the 10 yard line on two of them (you could argue both of those drives were really better than the one they scored on). The Buckeyes were the better team on both sides, but the Longhorns were hardly humiliated, so some of that chatter is wildly overblown. I think both of these teams are really good, I suspect both will be in the playoff and really the home field advantage was probably the real difference. 

(9) Louisiana State 17-10 (4) Clemson

Always important to remember when two college heavyweights get together, often the 2nd half is totally different from the 1st. The 1st half had more offense than the Longhorn-Buckeye match but not much as both teams moved the ball a little bit but for the most part stalled. Clemson had one nice drive before the half and were up 10-3. After that, I thought LSU kinda dominated the rest of the game. Clemson didn't get blown out but they were clearly not as good as LSU, who struck me as maybe the revelation of the opening week: they've got a for-real QB, they can move the ball and their D is gonna be stingy. Not ready to give up on Clemson, I suspect they'll hang around all year (thought Florida State and Miami look like stiffer competition than may have been anticipated).

(8) Alabama 17-31 Florida State

This was an eye-opener. Alabama was primed for a real bounce back season--and that could still happen--whereas the Seminoles were so bad last year (so bad!) that I was already ready to write them off. Record scratch! The Seminoles looked damn good! Their offense is scary, that pass rush is for real and whatever ailed them last year seems to be in the rearview. They took it to the Tide from beginning to end and were the better team on both sides. Now Alabama was starting a rookie QB, had some injuries and were on the road, so I'm not ready to write off the Tide just yet but...man, their schedule is rugged and if they don't get the O-line on track, then their season could go sideways pronto. But the Seminoles were the revelation, they look they're back from whatever hole they fell into last year.

(6) Notre Dame 24-27 (10) Miami

I was impressed with the Hurricanes (though maybe not with their too-conservative coach). I was skeptical of QB Carson Beck, who just never did it for me in his time at UGA and seemed to be shooting his mouth off in embarrassing ways all summer. But, he looked good out there in a Hurricane uni, guess the change of scenery is doing him well. This was a good matchup, felt like Notre Dame was the better team early on, but the Hurricanes definitely took over the game after half time, almost low-keyed the game away, but managed to hold on to the W. Don't want to diss the Irish, though, I felt like they weren't playing their best football, feels like this team is going to be better than this for the rest of the season, so we;ll see if they can maintain the top 10-ness (I think they will). 

Top 25

Handled their business

(2) Penn State, (3) Ohio State, (5) Georgia, (7) Oregon, (9) Louisiana State, (10) Miami, (11) Arizona State, (12) Illinois, (13) South Carolina, (14) Michigan, (15) Florida, (16) Southern Methodist, (18) Oklahoma, (19) Texas A&M, (21) Mississippi, (22) Iowa State (twice), (23) Texas Tech, (24) Tennessee

Won but did not impress

(17) Kansas State (week 1). I dunno, man, could be that North Dakota is actually pretty good, but if K State is gonna hang in the top 20, they need to take care of their cream puffs at home, and they struggled hard to put this team away. We'll see: this might be the real wake up call after getting ground down in Ireland the week before.

(20) Indiana. Didn't exactly dominate Old Dominion at home, I really don't think that's too much to ask of a team that made the playoff last year and fancies themselves a gunslinging sorta offense. 

Bad beat

(1) Texas. Unimpressed with the Longhorns? How about you go to Ohio State and win a game, show me how its done. Despite the chirping, UT handled themselves well on the road to open the season and I fully expect they will hang around the top 10 all year long. 

(4) Clemson. I think LSU is really good, something we couldn't have known two weeks ago. I suspect Clemson will be around at the end of the year and this L likely won't be a killer for them.

(17) Kansas State (week 0). (Two weeks in and they've got a Bad Beat and a Did Not Impress, the Wildcats are not off to a great start) Going to Ireland and playing an unknown foe can't be easy, so I'm willing to look the other way, but following that L with a scuffling save at home to a D2 squad is not filling me with confidence. 

Not so good

(8) Alabama. I think Florida State is good and this L won't be a killer for the Tide this year, but, man, they really could've used that win. If they can up their QB play, they can still be a solid team, this season isn't over for the Tide, but, they need to be flawless from here (and that's a tough ask for anyone).

(25) Boise State. Didn't see their shellacking at South Florida, but a friend told me the game was actually a lot closer than the 34-7 score suggests. Oooooooooo-kay. 

Next week's intriguing matches

Iowa @ (16) Iowa State (they got a big W in Ireland but can the Cyclones win in Iowa?)

Baylor @ (17) Southern Methodist (I thought Baylor handled themselves okay against Auburn, think they're gonna give the Mustangs a game this week)

Oklahoma State @ (6) Oregon (the Cowboys haven't been all the great lately but they're not a cream puff, curious to see if the Ducks can put them away early)

(15) Michigan @ (18) Oklahoma (here we go: game of the week; I have no idea what to expect from either team, both were pretty soft last year, let's see if either of them are ready to walk it)

2024-25 NBA Final (Preview)

Not much to preview, really. The Thunder have been the best team in the NBA all season long, the Pacers were the 3rd best team in the East and had a strong run through the playoffs, a worthy representative of the Eastern Conference (but no one thinks they're gonna beat OKC). 

The sport media wanted the Knicks to be here instead of the Pacers but, well, the Knicks were overrated and lucky all the way through (I'm sorry, but it's true: the Knicks weren't that fucking good this year!). The Knicks pushed around the Pistons, who just weren't ready to finish games (though I thought the were the better team in all 6 games), and they were lucky enough to watch the Celtics self-destruct (go back and watch the games, dude, the Celtics should've won in 4). Then the Pacers had too much offense for the Knicks to keep up. 

As for the Pacers, they caught the Bucks with injuries (as is the usual for the Bucks) and though the Cavs were arguably the only regular season team to even come close to the Thunder, the Cavs just weren't ready to take the next step (and the Pacers were). The Pacers started slow this season but after the all-star break, they were pretty awesome and their run through the East was well deserved, they were the most complete ready-to-compete team in the Conference.  

The Thunder murdered everyone all year long, then they mauled the Grizzlies (they even tried to even away Game Three and just couldn't manage to lose), then faced their toughest opponent in the Nuggets, who took them to Game Seven, and then pushed aside the Wolves rather easily. So, just to recap: all non-Jokic teams got thoroughly (if casually) destroyed by OKC. 

Right off the bat: I'm going Thunder in 5. I just think they're too good, but they'll probably fall asleep long enough for the Pacers to steal one. 

Game One could be the test. If OKC stomps the Pacers, well, that's probably what this series will be. 

If the Pacers steal a W in OKC, then we've definitely got a Series. 

But if the Pacers compete, keep it close, make OKC sweat, that actually might be the best outcome. 

I'd suggest that the best possible series is something like when the Nuggets beat the Lakers on their way to the championship a few years back: the Nuggets swept the Lakers, but all four games were tight and riveting. A roller coaster of a sweep is probably the most interesting outcome. Why? Well, for the Pacers to win the series, I think something would have to go disastrously wrong for OKC and I don't want to see anyone go out like that. I think the Pacers are good enough to make the Thunder work, but I don't think they're good enough to win four of the next seven games against them. 

So four really tight, compelling, nailbiting games that OKC has to go to their limits to win....that could happen. I think both of these squads are offensively good enough to keep games close, but I think OKC's defense will make a few extra plays that the Pacers won't be able to match. That said, I can totally see a game where neither team plays any defense, a 135-129 kinda game, which could go either way. 

For the Pacers to win, they need to jump out to big leads early on and then hold on to them. Unfortunately, this is not typically how they've been winning in the playoffs so far. Their best wins have been sneaky hanging-around kinda games where they get hot late and steal W's in the 4th. I don't think that's gonna work against the Thunder, who never stop scoring and never stop playing defense. The Pacers need to dominate the 1st quarter to hang with the Thunder. 

The Pacers have a decent chance to steal Game One. If they can surprise the Thunder right away (as the Nuggets did), perhaps they can make a series of this. I'm not trying to say the Pacers can't win, not at all. I was a fan of their run to the final four last year and I was kinda shocked that the started so slow this season, thinking that they would hit the ground running and be a real contender for the #1 seed in the East. They started surprisingly slow, but once they got going, they've been really good for several months now, the Pacers are not a fluke. But I think the West is so much better than the East and the Thunder has performed better against better opponents all year long, I just don't see how that stops now. We'll see.